Has the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 appeared?
- 10 Downloads
In this note, we define firstly a compositive parameter as an index describing the level of solar activity in a solar cycle. The parameter is derived from a combination of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number with the fluctuation of the associated monthly mean sunspot numbers to the smoothed one. Then, a method is developed for estimating the time of the appearance of a solar maximum based on the conception of similar cycles. An application of the method to the 23rd solar cycle shows that the maximum of the cycle should have appeared in the period from April to August 2000, and the descending phase of Cycle 23 has come.
Keywordssolar cycle sunspot number estimate of peak time 23rd solar cycle
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 1.Wang Jialong, On solar activity prediction and disaster prediction, Progress in Geophysics, 1999, 14(suppl.): 117.Google Scholar
- 2.Wang Jialong, Han Yanben, Forecast of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers and non-smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for Solar Cycle 23, Astrophysics Reports, Publ. of the Beijing Astron. Obs., 1997, 1 (Supplement series): 76.Google Scholar
- 6.Wang, J. L., Li, X. C., When will the solar minimum appear? Solar-Terrestrial Prediction-V (eds. Heckman, G., Marubashi, K., Shea, M. A. et al.), Proc. of a Workshop at Hitachi, Japan, CRL, 1997, 85–88.Google Scholar