Journal of Geographical Sciences

, Volume 11, Issue 2, pp 149–160 | Cite as

Modeling the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture

  • Liu Hui
  • Li Xiu-bin
  • Guenther Fischer
  • Sun Lai-xiang


Tee impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985–1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China’s agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.

Key words

climate change Ricardian model China’s agriculture 

CLC number

F329.9 P467 

Document code


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. [1]
    Smith D Tirpak. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Report to Congress. EPA-230-05-89-050. U.S. Washington D.C., Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Robert Mendelsohn, William D Nordhaus, Daigee Shaw. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis.American Economic Review, 1994,84(4): 753–771.Google Scholar
  3. [3]
    Robert Mendelsohn, William D Nordhaus, Daigee Shaw. Climate impacts on aggregate farm value: accounting for adaptation.Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 1996,80(1): 55–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. [4]
    Mendelsohn R, Neumann J. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press, 1998.Google Scholar
  5. [5]
    Ariel Dinar, Robert Mendelsohn, RobertEvensonet al. Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. World Bank Technical Paper No. 402. Washington DC: World Bank, 1998.Google Scholar
  6. [6]
    Ashton Basil, Kenneth Hillet al. Famine in China, 1958–1961.Population and Development Review, 198410(4): 613–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. [7]
    Brown L R. “Who will feed China?” New York: W.W. Norton, 1995.Google Scholar
  8. [8]
    Ying Hong. The possible impacts of climate change on the major grain yield in Liaoning Province.China Agriculture Meteorology, 1995,16(3): 5–8.Google Scholar
  9. [9]
    Gao Suhua, Ding Yihui, Zhao Zengciet al. The possible green house impact of atmospheric CO2 content increase on the agriculture production in future in China.Scientia Atomospherica Sinica, 1993,17(5): 584–591.Google Scholar
  10. [10]
    Deng Genyun. The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Agriculture. Beijing: Beijing Science and Technology Press, 1993. 263–312.Google Scholar
  11. [11]
    Barry Smit, Cai Yunlong. Climate change and agriculture in China.Global Environmental Change, 1996,6(3): 205–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. [12]
    Tang Guoping, Li Xiubin, Guenther Ficsheret al. Climate change and its impacts on China’s agriculture.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000,55(2): 129–138.Google Scholar
  13. [13]
    Gong Zitong, Zhou Huizhen, Shi Xuezhenget al. Soil of China. Introduction to the Legend of the Soil Map of China. Academia Sinica, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1999, 1–40.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Liu Hui
    • 1
  • Li Xiu-bin
    • 1
  • Guenther Fischer
    • 2
  • Sun Lai-xiang
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijingChina
  2. 2.International Institute for Applied System AnalysisLaxenburgAustria

Personalised recommendations