Modeling the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture
- 122 Downloads
Tee impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985–1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China’s agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.
Key wordsclimate change Ricardian model China’s agriculture
CLC numberF329.9 P467
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Smith D Tirpak. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Report to Congress. EPA-230-05-89-050. U.S. Washington D.C., Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.Google Scholar
- Robert Mendelsohn, William D Nordhaus, Daigee Shaw. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis.American Economic Review, 1994,84(4): 753–771.Google Scholar
- Mendelsohn R, Neumann J. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press, 1998.Google Scholar
- Ariel Dinar, Robert Mendelsohn, RobertEvensonet al. Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. World Bank Technical Paper No. 402. Washington DC: World Bank, 1998.Google Scholar
- Brown L R. “Who will feed China?” New York: W.W. Norton, 1995.Google Scholar
- Ying Hong. The possible impacts of climate change on the major grain yield in Liaoning Province.China Agriculture Meteorology, 1995,16(3): 5–8.Google Scholar
- Gao Suhua, Ding Yihui, Zhao Zengciet al. The possible green house impact of atmospheric CO2 content increase on the agriculture production in future in China.Scientia Atomospherica Sinica, 1993,17(5): 584–591.Google Scholar
- Deng Genyun. The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Agriculture. Beijing: Beijing Science and Technology Press, 1993. 263–312.Google Scholar
- Tang Guoping, Li Xiubin, Guenther Ficsheret al. Climate change and its impacts on China’s agriculture.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000,55(2): 129–138.Google Scholar
- Gong Zitong, Zhou Huizhen, Shi Xuezhenget al. Soil of China. Introduction to the Legend of the Soil Map of China. Academia Sinica, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1999, 1–40.Google Scholar