Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Cyclone track prediction

  • Surveys in Fluid Mechanics-IV
  • Published:
Sadhana Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This is a review paper based on tropical cyclone research that was mostly carried out at the Florida State University. In this review we address a number of modelling issues such as: Explicit specification of the constant flux layer, cloud-radiative interaction and low cloud, cumulus parameterization, physical initialization, the ensemble of hurricane track forecasts and cloud forecasts. Among these the areas that have demonstrated the most sensitivity on tropical cyclone tracks, landfall and intensity are: resolution, cumulus convection, sea surface temperatures, soil moisture and orography around the ocean basin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

EOF:

empirical orthogonal function

FSU:

Florida State University

OLR:

outgoing longwave radiation

Q 2 :

vertically integrated apparent moisture flux

SSM/I:

special sensor microwave instrument

T213:

triangular truncation at wave number 213

θ e :

equivalent potential temperature

References

  • Businger J A, Wyngard J C, Izumi Y, Bradley E F 1971 Flux profile relationship in the atmospheric surface layer.J. Atmos. Sci. 28: 181–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dastoor A, Krishnamurti T N 1991 The landfall and structure of tropical cyclone: The sensitivity of model predictions to soil moisture parameterization.Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 55: 345–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harshvardan, Corsetti T G 1984 Longwave parameterization for the UCLA/GLAS GCM. NASA Tech. Memo 86072, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M 1975 On numerical weather prediction over a tropical belt. Report No. 75-1, Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, pp 1–282

    Google Scholar 

  • Katayama A 1967 On radiation budget of the troposphere over the northern hemisphere (II).J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn. 45: 1–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitade T 1983 Nonlinear normal mode initialization with physics.Mon. Weather Rev. 111: 2194–2213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Bedi H S 1988 Cumulus parameterization and rainfall rates: Part III.Mon. Weather Rev. 116: 583–589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Low-Nam S, Pasch R 1983 Cumulus parameterization and rainfall rates, part II.Mon. Weather Rev. 111: 815–828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Oosterhof D, Dignon N 1989 Hurricane prediction with a high resolution global model.Mon. Weather Rev. 117: 631–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Xue J, Bedi H S, Ingles K, Oosterhof D 1991a Physical initialization for numerical weather prediction over the tropics.Tellus AB43: 53–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Yap K S, Oosterhof D K 1991b Sensitivity of tropical storm forecast to radiative destabilization.Mon. Weather Rev. 119: 2176–2205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Bedi H S, Yap K S, Oosterhof D, Rohaly G 1992 Recurvature dynamics of a typhoon.J. Meteor. Atmos. Phys. 50: 105–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Oosterhof D, Sukawat D 1994a Numerical prediction of a Bangladesh Tropical Cyclone.Terres. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 5: 245–275

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Rohaly G D, Bedi H S 1994b On the improvement of precipitation forecast skill from physical initialization.Tellus A46: 598–614

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti T N, Han W, Jha B, Bedi H S 1998 Numerical prediction of Hurricane Opal.Mon. Weather Rev. 126: 1347–1363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuo H L 1974 Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large scale flow.J. Atmos. Sci. 31: 1232–1240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lacis A A, Hansen J E 1974 A parameterization of the absorption of solar radiation in the earth’s atmosphere.J. Atmos. Sci. 31: 118–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Louis J F 1979 A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere.Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 17: 187–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell M D 1988Boundary layer structure and dynamics in outer hurricane rainbands. PhD dissertation, Dept. of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

    Google Scholar 

  • Tiedke M 1984 The sensitivity of the time-mean large-scale flow to cumulus convection in the ECMWF model.Workshop on convection in large-scale numerical models (ECMWF) 28, pp 297–316

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallace J M, Tibaldi S, Simmons A J 1983 Reduction of systematic forecast errors in the ECMWF model through the introduction of envelope orography.Q. J. R. Met. Soc. 109: 683–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yanai M, Esbensen S, Chu J H 1973 Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large scale heat and moisture budget.J. Atmos. Sci. 30: 611–627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Krishnamurti T N 1998 On ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks.Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 78: 2785–2795

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, 32306-3034, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    T N Krishnamurti & Bhaskar Jha

Authors
  1. T N Krishnamurti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bhaskar Jha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

This work was supported by NSF Grant No. ATM-9710336, ONR Grant No. N00014-95-1-1132, NASA TRMM Grant No. NAG5-4729 and the NOAA Grant No. NA67WA0406.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Krishnamurti, T.N., Jha, B. Cyclone track prediction. Sadhana 23, 653–684 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02744587

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02744587

Keywords

Search

Navigation