Summary
Interest Rate Ceilings, Inflation and Economic Growth in L.D.C.s. — Referring to the widespread prevalence of very low (frequently negative) real interest rates in most of the L.D.C.s this article empirically investigates the rationale for pursuing financial liberalization policies. First, it could be shown that the level of financial development is a significant determinant of the rate of capital formation and that for countries with low and stable inflation rates the constraints from the domestic financial sector are less effective than for those where high and very unstable rates of inflation are dominating. Secondly, in a cross-country analysis empirical support for McKinnon's “complementarity hypothesis” is provided, identifying the real rate of interest as positively related to private investment. Both findings are interpreted as recommendations for the freeing of interest rates and the reduction of inflation for stimulating growth in L.D.C.s.
Résumé
Les plafonds des taux d'intérêt, l'inflation et la croissance économique dans les PVD. — L'article se réfère à la prépondérance très répandue des taux réels très bas (souvent négatifs) dans la plupart des PVD et empiriquement analyse la raison de poursuivre une libération financière. Premièrement, l'auteur démontre que le niveau du développement financier est une déterminante significative du taux de la formation du capital et que dans les pays où les taux d'inflation sont bas et stables les restrictions en provenance du secteur local financier sont moins effectives que dans lesquels où les taux d'inflation hauts et très instables sont dominants. Deuxièmement, par une analyse transversale des pays l'auteur gagne un support empirique en faveur de la «hypothèse de complémentarité» de McKinnon, c'est-à-dire qu'il y a une relation positive entre le taux réel d'intérêt et l'investissement privé. Les deux résultats sont interprétés comme recommandations du déblocage des taux d'intérêt et de la réduction d'inflation pour stimuler la croissance dans les PVD.
Resumen
Limites superiores para tasas de interés, inflación y crecimiento en pafses en desarrollo. — Refiriéndose a la amplia prevalencia de tasas de interés real muy bajas (frecuente negativas) en la mayoría de los países en desarrollo, este articulo investiga empíricamente la racionalidad de seguir politicas de liberalizaci 'on financiera. Primero, se puedo mostrar que el nivel de desarrollo financiero es una determinante significativa de la tasa de formación de capital y que para países con tasas de inflación bajas y estables las restricciones del sector financiero doméstico son menos efectivas que para aquéllos donde dominan tasas de inflación altas y muy inestables. Segundo, en un análisis de corte transversal de países se proporciona apoyo empírico a la «hipótesis complementaria» de McKinnon, indentificando una relación positiva entre la tasa de interés real y la inversión privada. Ambos resultados se interpretan como recomendaciones para liberar las tasas de interés y reducir la inflación para estimular el crecimiento en países en desarrollo.
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Fischer, B. Höchstzinspolitik, Inflation und wirtschaftliches Wachstum in Entwicklungsländern. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 116, 514–532 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02708820
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02708820