Abstract
Trade with Asia and Skill Upgrading: Effects on Factor Markets in the Older Industrial Countries. — The trade and labor nexus is examined with a model incorporating refinements which weaken the H-O-S result that free trade can cause factor rewards to equalize. Asian growth and rising openness in the period 1970–1992, taken in isolation, are found to cause real wages to rise there, even for production workers. Although they also cause increased wage dispersion, the magnitude is small compared with the effects of skill upgrading. Projections to 2010, which combine further expansion in imports from Asia with continued Northern skill upgrading, yield declining real wages and/or unemployment for both production and farm workers. Restricting imports from Asia is found to be an ineffective response.
Zusammenfassung
Handel mit Asien und Höherqualifizierung. Auswirkun-gen auf die Faktormärkte in den älteren Industrieländern. — Das verwendete Modell enthält einige Verfeinerungen, die die Implikationen des H-O-S-Modells abschwächen, wonach Freihandel dazu führt, daß sich die Faktorentlohnungen der einzelnen Länder angleichen. Wenn man das Wachstum in Asien und die zunehmende Offenheit in der Zeit von 1970–1992 isoliert betrachtet, dann stellt sich heraus, daß dies den Ländern auf der nördlichen Halbkugel Nettovorteile gebracht hat. Dort stiegen die Reallöhne sogar für Industriearbeiter. Projektionen für das Jahr 2010, die einen weiteren Anstieg der Importe aus Asien mit fortgesetzter Höherqualifizierung der Arbeitskräfte im Norden kombinieren, ergeben sinkende Reallöhne und/oder Arbeitslosigkeit für Arbeiter sowohl in der Industrie als auch in der Landwirtschaft. Importbeschränkungen gegenüber Asien erweisen sich als ungeeignet.
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