Abstract
Does Uncertainty Affect Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis. — This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measures on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during the 1970–1995 period. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.
Zusammenfassung
Beeinflu\t Unsicherheit das wirtschaftliche Wachstum? Eine empirische Untersuchung. — Die Verfasser untersuchen den Einflu\ von Unsicherheit auf das wirtschaftliche Wachstum. Sie entwickeln Ma\e für die Unsicherheit am Beispiel der Exporte, Regierungspolitik und Preise, um ein Wachstumsmodell auszubauen. Danach testen sie ökonometrisch die Robustheit der Wirkungen dieser Ma\e auf das wirtschaftliche Wachstum eines Querschnitts von 138 Industrie- und Entwick-lungslÄndern in der Zeit von 1970 bis 1995. Das Ergebnis zeigt deutlich einen robusten und negativen Einflu\ von Unsicherheit auf das wirtschaftliche Wachstum. Dies unter-streicht die Bedeuting stabiler Exporte und einer verlÄ\lichen Politik.
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