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Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv

, Volume 119, Issue 2, pp 226–245 | Cite as

“Partial” approaches to balance-of-payments adjustment yield consistent predictions under identical assumptions

  • Girol Karacaoglu
Article
  • 15 Downloads

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate Physical Capital Impact Effect Monetary Authority Small Open Economy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Zusammenfassung

“artial“-AnsÄtze des Zahlungsbilanzausgleichs ergeben unter identischen Annahmen konsistente Aussagen. — Dieser Aufsatz zeigt, da\ InkompatibilitÄten in den Grundannahmen die einzige Quelle für mögliche Widersprüche in den Aussagen sind, die sich aus dem “onetÄren” Ansatz und dem “omponenten“-Ansatz des Zahlungsbilanzausgleichs ergeben. Zwei Modelle werden als Prototypen verwendet, um zu zeigen, da\ dann, wenn die den Modellen zugrundeliegenden Annahmen auch bei einem Wechsel in den Determinanten der Zahlungsbilanzströme unverÄndert beibehalten werden, die Aussagen vollkommen konsistent sind. Die Ergebnisse der Modelle werden hinsichtlich der Vorzeichen verglichen, die die Ansto\wirkungen verschiedener exogener Schocks auf die Zahlungsbilanz unter “onetaristischen” und “eynesianischen” Annahmen aufweisen.

Résumé

Les approches «partielles» à l’ajustement de la balance des paiements produisent des prédictions consistantes sous des suppositions identiques. — Cet article souligne que l’incompatibilité des suppositions est la seule source pour des inconciliabilités possibles des prédictions qui résultent des approches «monétaires» et des «composantes» en matière de l’ajustement de la balance des paiements. L’auteur applique deux modèles de prototype pour démontrer qu’on obtient des prédictions parfaitement consistantes indépendamment du choix des déterminants directs, supposé que les suppositions sur le monde auquel le modèle se réfère restent intactes si l’on varie les déterminants directs des flux de la balance des paiements. Les prédictions des modèles introduits sont comparées à l’égard des signes des effets immédiats des différents chocs exogènes sur la balance des paiements sous des suppositions «monétaristes» et «keynésiennes».

Resumen

Aproximaciones «parciales» para predicciones consistentes de beneficios de ajuste de balanza de pagos bajo supuestos idénticos. — Este artículo individualiza incompatibilidades de supuestos subyacentes como la ünica fuente de posibles inconsistencias en las predicciones de aproximaciones «monetarias» y de «componentes» de ajustes de balanza de pagos. Se utilizan dos prototipos de modelos para demostrar que siempre que los supuestos acerca del mundo al que los modelos se aplican se mantienen intactes al cambiar entre sets de déterminantes próximas de flujos de balanza de pagos, se obtienen predicciones perfectamente consistentes irrespectivamente de la elección de las déterminantes próximas. Las predicciones de los modelos indicados se comparan bajo supuestos «monetaristas» y «keynesianos» en consideración de los signos de los efectos del impacto de variados choques exógenos sobre la balanza de pagos.

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Copyright information

© Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel 1982

Authors and Affiliations

  • Girol Karacaoglu

There are no affiliations available

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