General failure probability simulation and application for multi-mode

Abstract

A general failure probability simulation and deviation evaluation methods were presented for fuzzy safety state and fuzzy failure state. And the corresponding number integral method was simultaneously established. As the distribution of state variable and the membership of the state variable to the fuzzy safety set were normal, the general failure probability of the single failure mode had precise analytic solution, which was used to verify the precision of the presented methods. The results show that the evaluation of the simulation method convergences to the analytic solution with the number increase of the sampling. The above methods for the single failure mode was extended to the multi-mode by the expansion and probability principles. The presented methods were applied to the engineering problem. For the number of significant mode is not too many, the high precision solution can be given by the presented number simulation and number integral methods, which is illustrated by the engineering examples. In addition, the application scope of the methods was discussed.