Abstract
In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insurance programs. Yet, these explanations can not account for the downturn in birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constancy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility behavior. To summarize the effect of Sweden's economic and policy environment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical economic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhibit a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aronsson T, Walker J (1994) The effects of the Swedish welfare state on labor supply incentives. Unpublished manuscript, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Becker G (1962) Irrational behavior and economic theory. J Polit Econ 70:1–13
Calhoun C, Espenshade T (1988) Childbearing and wives' foregone earnings. Popul Studies 42:5–37
Cigno A (1991) Economics of the Family. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Edin P-A, Holmlund B (forthcoming) The Swedish wage structure: The rise and fall of solidarity wage? In: Freeman R, Katz L (eds) Differences and change in wage structures. University Chicago Press, Chicago
Espenshade T (1977) The value and cost of children. Popul Bull 32:3–44
Espenshade T (1984) Investing in children: New estimates of parental expenditures. The Urban Institute Press, Washington, D. C.
Flanagan R (1987) Efficiency and equality in Swedish labor markets. In: Bosworth B, Rivlin AM (eds) The Swedish economy. The Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C.
Gustafsson S, Jacobson R (1985) Trends in female labor force participation in Sweden. J Labor Econ 3: S256-S274
Gustafsson S, Stafford F (1992) Child care subsidies and labor supply in Sweden. J Human Resources 27:204–230
Heckman J (1976) A life cycle model of earnings, learning and consumption. J Polit Econ 84: S11-S44
Heckman J, MaCurdy T (1980) A life cycle model of female labor supply. Rev Econ Studies 46:47–74
Heckman J, Walker J (1990) The relationship between wages and income and the timing and spacing of births: Evidence from Swedish longitudinal data. Econometrica 58:1411–1441
Hibbs D (1990) Wage compression under solidarity bargaining in Sweden. Economic Report No. 30, Stockholm: Trade Union Institute for Economic Research
Hoem H (1990) Social policy and fertility change in Sweden. Popul Dev Rev 16:735–748
Joshi J (1990) The cash opportunity-cost of childbearing: An approach to estimating using British data. Popul Studies 44:41–60
Lazear E, Michael R (1988) Allocation of income within the household. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
MaCurdy TE (1981) An empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting. J Polit Econ 89:1059–1085
MaCurdy TE (1985) Interpreting empirical models of labor supply. In: Singer B, Heckman J (eds) Longitudinal analysis of labor market data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge MA
Moffitt R (1984) Optimal life-cycle profiles of fertility and labor supply. Res Popul Econ 5:29–50
Olson S (1987) Sweden. In: Flora P (ed) Limits to growth, vol 1 and 4. Walter de Gruyter, Berlin New York
Prioux F (1990) Fertility and family size in Western Europe. Population (Engl Select) 2:141–162
Tasiran A, Gustafsson B (1990) The monthly wage earnings of salesmen and shop assistants. Unpublished manuscript, University of Göteborg
Walker J (1991) The effect of parental benefits on life cycle fertility and female labor supply. Uniublished manuscript, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Walker J (1994) Sweden's solidaristic wage policy and the life cycle profile of female wages. In preparation, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
The first draft of this paper was written while I was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The research was supported by grants number HD-19226 and HD-28685 from the National Institute of Child Health and Development. I thank Glen Cain, John Kerman, Tom MaCurdy, Duncan Thomas, Michael Tilkin, and seminar participants at University of Illinois, Hoover Institution, and University of Wisconsin for useful comments.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Walker, J.R. The effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior. J Popul Econ 8, 223–251 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00185251
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00185251