Spatio-temporal trend and change point detection of winter temperature of North Bengal, India
- 38 Downloads
The trend of temperature and homogeneity are the most significant issue for climate change allied research. This research aims to identify the long-term trend and change point detection of winter maximum (tmax), minimum (tmin) and average (tmean) temperature of six meteorological stations of North Bengal, India using 102 years’ time series data (1915–2016). To detect the monotonic trend and the rate of change, non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used. Homogeneity of winter temperature was studied using Buishand’s range test (B test) and Pettit’s test (P test). From the results, it was observed that most of the stations were showed significant (P < 0.05) warming trend in winter season. The rate of increasing was highest at station English Bazar in the month of December. On the other hand, significant changed of winter tmax and tmean occurred in around 1959 and 1952 respectively, while for tmin it was quite late, occurred in the year 1988. The populations of North Bengal who are dependent on temperature-related primary economic activities are getting benefitted from this study. In addition, these analyses will be helpful for policymakers and scientist to focus on micro-level planning and sustainable Rabi crops management in this region.
KeywordsMann–Kendall test Sen’s slope estimator Homogeneity test Winter warming
The authors are grateful to the India Water Portal for providing free download of various dataset used in the analysis. Also, the authors would like to thank anonymous reviewers and editor for their helpful comments on the previous version of the manuscript.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
This paper does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors. This paper does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors.
- 1.Barry, R. G., & Chorley, R. J. (2010). Atmosphere, weather and climate. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
- 2.Singh, S. (2016). Climatology. Allahabad: Pravalika Publication.Google Scholar
- 3.Khan, A., Chatterjee, S., & Bisai, D. (2017). Air temperature variability and trend analysis by non-parametric test for Kolkata observatory, West Bengal, India. Indian Journal of Geo Marine Sciences, 46(5), 966–971.Google Scholar
- 4.Jaswal, A. K. (2010). Recent winter warming over India-spatial and temporal characteristics of monthly maximum and minimum Temperature trends for January to march. Mausam, 61(2), 163–174.Google Scholar
- 5.Raha, G. N., Bhattacharjee, K., Das, M., Dutta, M., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (2014). Statistical study of surface temperature and rainfall over four stations in north Bengal. Mausam, 62(2), 179–184.Google Scholar
- 8.Pramanik, S. K., & Jagannathan, P. (1954). Climate change in India (II)-temperature. Indian Journal of Meteorology & Geophysics, 5(1), 29–47.Google Scholar
- 12.Mandal, S., Choudhury, B. U., Mandal, M., & Bej, S. (2013). Trend analysis of weather variables in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India: a long-term perspective (1982–2010). Current Science, 105(7), 947–953.Google Scholar
- 15.Tomar, C. S., Saha, D., Das, S., Saw, S., Bist, S., & Gupta, M. K. (2017). Analysis of temperature variability and trends over Tripura. Mausam, 68(1), 149–160.Google Scholar
- 16.Kumar, K., Mishra, N., & Gupta, S. (2014). Trend analysis of temperature by Mann–Kendall test in the high altitude regions of Uttarakhand, India. Asian Academic Research Journal of Multidisciplinary, 1(18), 387–399.Google Scholar
- 24.Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin.Google Scholar
- 27.Pearson, E. S., & Hartley, H. O. (1966). Biometrika tables for statisticians (3rd ed., Vol. 1). London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- 32.Gilbert, R. O. (1987). Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
- 33.Jangra, S., & Singh, M. (2011). Analysis of rainfall and temperatures for climatic trend in Kullu valley. Mausam, 62(1), 77–84.Google Scholar
- 34.Jain, S. K., & Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102(1), 37–49.Google Scholar
- 35.Warwade, P., Sharma, N., Ahrens, B., & Pandey, A. (2015). Characterization and analysis of the trend of climate variable (Temperatures) for the North-Eastern region of the India. International Journal of Recent Scientific Research, 6(4), 3618–3624.Google Scholar
- 38.Gbode, I. E., Akinsanola, A. A., & Ajayi, V. O. (2015). Recent changes of some observed climate extreme events in Kano. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. Article ID 298046. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/298046.