Advertisement

Spatio-temporal trend and change point detection of winter temperature of North Bengal, India

  • Jayanta DasEmail author
  • Tapash Mandal
  • Piu Saha
Article
  • 38 Downloads

Abstract

The trend of temperature and homogeneity are the most significant issue for climate change allied research. This research aims to identify the long-term trend and change point detection of winter maximum (tmax), minimum (tmin) and average (tmean) temperature of six meteorological stations of North Bengal, India using 102 years’ time series data (1915–2016). To detect the monotonic trend and the rate of change, non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used. Homogeneity of winter temperature was studied using Buishand’s range test (B test) and Pettit’s test (P test). From the results, it was observed that most of the stations were showed significant (P < 0.05) warming trend in winter season. The rate of increasing was highest at station English Bazar in the month of December. On the other hand, significant changed of winter tmax and tmean occurred in around 1959 and 1952 respectively, while for tmin it was quite late, occurred in the year 1988. The populations of North Bengal who are dependent on temperature-related primary economic activities are getting benefitted from this study. In addition, these analyses will be helpful for policymakers and scientist to focus on micro-level planning and sustainable Rabi crops management in this region.

Keywords

Mann–Kendall test Sen’s slope estimator Homogeneity test Winter warming 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the India Water Portal for providing free download of various dataset used in the analysis. Also, the authors would like to thank anonymous reviewers and editor for their helpful comments on the previous version of the manuscript.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

This paper does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors. This paper does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors.

References

  1. 1.
    Barry, R. G., & Chorley, R. J. (2010). Atmosphere, weather and climate. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Singh, S. (2016). Climatology. Allahabad: Pravalika Publication.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Khan, A., Chatterjee, S., & Bisai, D. (2017). Air temperature variability and trend analysis by non-parametric test for Kolkata observatory, West Bengal, India. Indian Journal of Geo Marine Sciences, 46(5), 966–971.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Jaswal, A. K. (2010). Recent winter warming over India-spatial and temporal characteristics of monthly maximum and minimum Temperature trends for January to march. Mausam, 61(2), 163–174.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Raha, G. N., Bhattacharjee, K., Das, M., Dutta, M., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (2014). Statistical study of surface temperature and rainfall over four stations in north Bengal. Mausam, 62(2), 179–184.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Hunter, D. E., Schwartz, S. E., Wagener, R., & Benkovitz, C. M. (1993). Seasonal, latitudinal, and secular variations in temperature trend: Evidence for influence of anthropogenic sulfate. Geophysical Reseach Letters, 20, 2455–2458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Dammo, M. N., Ibn Abubakar, B. S. U., & Sangodoyin, A. Y. (2015). Trend and change analysis of monthly and seasonal temperature series over North-eastern Nigeria. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 3(2), 1–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Pramanik, S. K., & Jagannathan, P. (1954). Climate change in India (II)-temperature. Indian Journal of Meteorology & Geophysics, 5(1), 29–47.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Hingane, L. S., Rupa Kumar, K., & Ramana Murty, Bh. V. (1985). Long-term trends of surface air temperature in India. Journal of Climatology, 5, 521–528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Arora, M., Goel, N. K., & Singh, P. (2005). Evaluation of temperature trends over India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50(1), 81–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Dash, S. K., Jenamani, R. K., Kalsi, S. R., & Panda, S. K. (2007). Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climatic Change, 85, 299–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Mandal, S., Choudhury, B. U., Mandal, M., & Bej, S. (2013). Trend analysis of weather variables in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India: a long-term perspective (1982–2010). Current Science, 105(7), 947–953.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Jain, S. K., Kumar, V., & Saharia, M. (2012). Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. International Journal of Climatology, 5, 5.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3483.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Oza, M., & Kishtawal, C. M. (2014). Trends in rainfall and temperature patterns over northeast India. Earth Science, India, 7(4), 90–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Tomar, C. S., Saha, D., Das, S., Saw, S., Bist, S., & Gupta, M. K. (2017). Analysis of temperature variability and trends over Tripura. Mausam, 68(1), 149–160.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Kumar, K., Mishra, N., & Gupta, S. (2014). Trend analysis of temperature by Mann–Kendall test in the high altitude regions of Uttarakhand, India. Asian Academic Research Journal of Multidisciplinary, 1(18), 387–399.Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Chen, H., Guo, S., Xu, C. Y., & Singh, V. P. (2007). Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and run-off response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 344, 171–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Suhaila, J., Jemain, A. A., Hamdan, M. F., & Zin, W. Z. W. (2011). Comparing rainfall patterns between regions in Peninsular Malaysia via a functional data analysis technique. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3), 197–206.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.043.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Firat, M., Dikbas, F., Koc, A. C., & Gungor, M. (2012). Analysis of temperature series: estimation of missing data and homogeneity test. Meteorological Applications, 19, 397–406.  https://doi.org/10.1002/met.271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Omar, M. A., Mahmood, A. S., Cagatay, B., & Nermin, S. (2017). Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in North Iraq. IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysics, 5(3), 57–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Akinsanola, A. A., & Ogunjobi, K. O. (2015). Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 128, 275.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1701-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Easterling, D. R., & Peterson, T. C. (1995). A new method for detecting undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 369–377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Mann, H. B. (1945). Non parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin.Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Odoulami, R. C., & Akinsanola, A. A. (2017). Recent assessment of West African summer monsoon daily rainfall trends. Weather, 5, 5.  https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2965.Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    Das, J., & Bhattacharya, S. K. (2018). Trend analysis of long-term climatic parameters in Dinhata of Koch Bihar district, West Bengal. Spatial Information Research, 5, 1–10.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-018-0173-3.Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Pearson, E. S., & Hartley, H. O. (1966). Biometrika tables for statisticians (3rd ed., Vol. 1). London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    Wijngaard, J. B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Konnen, G. P. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 679–692.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58, 11–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection. Applied Statistics, 28, 126–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Gilbert, R. O. (1987). Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  33. 33.
    Jangra, S., & Singh, M. (2011). Analysis of rainfall and temperatures for climatic trend in Kullu valley. Mausam, 62(1), 77–84.Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Jain, S. K., & Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102(1), 37–49.Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    Warwade, P., Sharma, N., Ahrens, B., & Pandey, A. (2015). Characterization and analysis of the trend of climate variable (Temperatures) for the North-Eastern region of the India. International Journal of Recent Scientific Research, 6(4), 3618–3624.Google Scholar
  36. 36.
    Shrestha, A. B., Wake, C. P., Mayewski, P. A., & Dibb, J. E. (1999). Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: an analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 12(9), 2775–2786.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Domroes, M., & El-Tantawi, A. (2005). Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in Egypt. International Journal of Climatology, 25(1), 51–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Gbode, I. E., Akinsanola, A. A., & Ajayi, V. O. (2015). Recent changes of some observed climate extreme events in Kano. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. Article ID 298046. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/298046.
  39. 39.
    Jacob, D., & Walland, D. (2016). Variability and long-term change in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 36–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Korean Spatial Information Society 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Geography and Applied GeographyUniversity of North BengalDarjeelingIndia
  2. 2.Department of GeographyChhatrapati Sahuji Maharaj UniversityKanpurIndia

Personalised recommendations