Trend Detection Analysis of Gridded PET Data over the Tapi Basin

  • Rahul Verma
  • Ganesh D. KaleEmail author
Original Paper


Potential evapotranspiration (PET) plays a vital role in mass and heat fluxes of global atmospheric system. The alterations in PET can affect precipitation and hydrological regimes and also affects the production of crops by the alterations in the agro-ecological water balance. PET is affected by the climate change. Basin scale climate change information is of highest importance for the use, development, and planning of water. Tapi basin is a climatically sensitive basin. Thus, in the present study, trend detection analysis of gridded PET data of the Tapi basin is carried out. Correlogram is used for assessment of independence of data and selection of appropriate trend detection test (Mann-Kendall (MK)/MK-correction factor 2 (MK-CF2) test) based on it. Sen’s slope (SS) test is used for assessment of magnitude of trend, MK/MK-CF2 test is used for assessment of statistical significance of trend, innovative trend analysis by Sen [15] is used to know the nature of trend (monotonic or non-monotonic or no trend), and smoothing curve is used for getting the information about patterns of data over a long time period. Also, the FDR method is used for assessment of regional significance of trends. Results of the trend detection analysis showed presence of regionally significant positive trends in gridded PET data of annual, winter, monsoon, and post-monsoon temporal scales. If the same increasing trend continues in future, water requirement of crops grown in the Tapi basin will increase which will result into more strain on water resources management of the Tapi basin in future.


Climate change Potential evapotranspiration Trend detection Tapi basin 



The authors are thankful to Climate Research Unit UK for making PET data available on their website. The authors are thankful to National Remote Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research Organization for making Tapi basin information available on their website through India-WRIS project. Also, the authors are thankful to Dr. Shailesh Patel and those who have helped in this work directly and indirectly.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Civil Engineering DepartmentSV NITSuratIndia

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