Advertisement

Changes and variability of precipitation and temperature in the Guna Tana watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

  • Meseret DawitEmail author
  • Afera Halefom
  • Asirat Teshome
  • Ermias Sisay
  • Biruk Shewayirga
  • Mihret Dananto
Original Article
  • 12 Downloads

Abstract

This paper studied the spatial and temporal variability of the statistical structures of precipitation Guna Tana watershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, by analyzing the time series of temperature and precipitation from six weather stations during the period from 1990 to 2016. Inverse distance weight, precipitation concentration index and MK test statics were used to detect annual and seasonal precipitation concentrations and the associated spatial patterns. The results show that precipitation concentration index values were mainly observed in Guna Tana watershed in which about 83.33% and 16.67% were the uniform concentration of precipitation and strong irregularity of precipitation distribution was observed in the kiremt seasons’ rainfall. The demonstration using Mann–Kendall trend test depicted that most parts of Guna Tana watershed are characterized by variability of precipitation and temperature. The results reveal that significant trends in average rainfall were observed (both positive and negative trends). Those significantly decreasing trends of average monsoon rainfall have the highest value of decreasing slope (i.e., − 1.88 mm/year) for Luwaye station and percentage change of − 31.07% in Bega season. Decreasing slopes (− 0.14 °C/year) and percentage change (− 22.79%) were observed in Luwaye station at the average annual minimum temperature and increasing Sen’s slope temperature recorded at 24.64 °C/year and percentage changes at 0.136% in 10% level of significance at Woreta station in average annual minimum temperature.

Keywords

Variability Guna watershed Precipitation Concentration Index 

Notes

Acknowledgements

I am grateful for Schlumberger Foundation, Faculty for the Future for providing me a financial support. Special thanks go to the community live in the study area, for their kind support for field work and data availability. They deserve my sincere thanks and appreciation.

References

  1. Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B, Bayu W (2012) Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Afr J Agric Res 7(10):1475–1486Google Scholar
  2. Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 27(11):1467–1477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Duhan D, Pandey A (2013) Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmos Res 122:136–149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Franke R, Nielson M (1991) Scattered data interpolation and applications: a tutorial and survey. In: Hagen H, Roller D (eds) Geometric modeling: methods and applications. Springer, New York, pp 131–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Gowda KK, Majuantha K, Manjunath BM, Putty YR (2008) Study of climate changes at Davangere region by using climatological data. Water Energy Int 65(3):66–77Google Scholar
  6. Hailu G, Niassy S, Zeyaur KR, Ochatum N, Subramanian S (2018) Maize–legume intercropping and push–pull for management of fall Armyworm, Stemborers, and Striga in Uganda. Agron J 110(6):2513–2522CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Halefom A, Sisay E, Khare D, Singh L, Worku T (2017) Hydrological modeling of urban catchment using semi-distributed model. Model Earth Syst Environ 3(2):1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Halefom A, Sisay E, Worku T, Khare D, Dananto M, Narayanan K (2018) Precipitation and runoff modelling in Megech watershed, Tana Basin, Amhara region of Ethiopia. Am J Environ Eng 8(3):45–53.  https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ajee.20180803.01 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hirsch RM, Helsel DR, Cohn TA, Gilroy EJ, Maidment DR (1992) Statistical analysis of hydrologic data. Handbook of hydrology. McGraw-Hill Education, New York, pp 1–17Google Scholar
  10. Kenabatho P, Parida B, Moalafhi D (2012) The value of largescale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana’s rainfall. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 50(64):71Google Scholar
  11. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, LondonGoogle Scholar
  12. Kim U, Kaluarachchi J (2009) Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia. J Am Water Resour Assoc 45(6):1361–1378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Meshesha TW, Tripathi S, Khare D (2016) Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ 2(4):168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Minale AS, Rao KK (2012) Impacts of land cover/use dynamics of Gilgel Abbay watershed of Lake Tana on climate variability, Northwestern Ethiopia. Appl Geomat 4(3):155–162CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ngetich KF, Mucheru-Muna M, Mugwe JN, Shisanya CA, Diels J, Mugendi DN (2014) Length of growing season, rainfall temporal distribution, onset and cessation dates in the Kenyan highlands. Agric For Meteorol 188:24–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Oliver JE (1980) Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Prof Geogr 32(3):300–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Oscar KM, Mucheru-Muna M, Ngetich FK, Mugwe JN, Mugendi D, Mairur F (2015) Rainfall variability, drought characterization, and efficacy of rainfall data reconstruction: case of Eastern Kenya. Adv Meteorol.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/380404 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Sisay E, Halefom A, Khare D, Singh L, Worku T (2017) Hydrological modelling of ungauged urban watershed using SWAT model. Model Earth Syst Environ 3(2):1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Worku T, Khare D, Tripathi SK (2018) Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. J Water Clim Change.  https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Hydraulic and Water Resourcing EngineeringDebre Tabor UniversityDebre TaborEthiopia
  2. 2.Department of Water Supply and Environmental Engineering, Institute of TechnologyHawassa UniversityHawassaEthiopia
  3. 3.Institute of Technology, School of Water Resource and Environmental EngineeringHaramaya UniversityDire DawaEthiopia

Personalised recommendations