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Modeling Earth Systems and Environment

, Volume 5, Issue 1, pp 245–256 | Cite as

Simulation of heavy rainfall event along east coast of India using WRF modeling system: impact of 3DVAR data assimilation

  • Shilpi Kalra
  • Sushil Kumar
  • A. RoutrayEmail author
Original Article
  • 70 Downloads

Abstract

The study is evaluated the impact of WRF three dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation for simulation of a heavy rainfall event due to the presence of the monsoon depression (MD) along the east coast of India. In this purpose, two numerical experiments are carried out such as CNTL (without data assimilation) and 3DV (with assimilation of observations from Global Telecommunication System) for simulation of the heavy rainfall event occurred during 16–21 August 2016 over Indian region. The model is integrated upto 120 h starting at 00 UTC of 16th August 2016 in both the experiments. The results demonstrate that the model with resulting high-resolution reanalyses from 3DV produced reasonably well simulated the location and intensity of rainfall due to the presence of the MD. The model simulated mean sea level pressure (MSLP), vertical structure, track and direct position errors (DPEs) of the MD reasonably well represented in the assimilation experiment (3DV). The statistical skill scores viz. Equitable Thereat Score (ETS) and bias with various thresholds of the rainfall are improved in the 3DV experiment as compared to the CNTL experiment. The present study clearly suggested that the data assimilation (3DVAR) has a positive impact on the simulation of the heavy rainfall event.

Keywords

Indian summer monsoon Variational data assimilation Monsoon depression WRF modeling system 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Authors acknowledge to NCEP to make accessible the FNL analysis and GTS observations used in WRF and WRF-VAR system respectively to successful carryout the study. Authors acknowledge National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA for using the WRF and WRF-3DVVAR modelling systems. We express our sincere thanks to IMD for providing observed rainfall data and best-estimated track of the MD to validate the model results of this experiment.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Vocational Studies and Applied SciencesGautam Buddha UniversityGreater NoidaIndia
  2. 2.National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)NoidaIndia

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