, Volume 37, Issue 12, pp 1485–1494 | Cite as

Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 for Predicting Death and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a German Population-Based Cohort

  • Michael LaxyEmail author
  • Verena Maria Schöning
  • Christoph Kurz
  • Rolf Holle
  • Annette Peters
  • Christa Meisinger
  • Wolfgang Rathmann
  • Kristin Mühlenbruch
  • Katharina Kähm
Original Research Article


Background and Objective

Accurate prediction of relevant outcomes is important for targeting therapies and to support health economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in patients with diabetes. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations are some of the most frequently used risk equations. This study aims to analyze the calibration and discrimination of the updated UKPDS risk equations as implemented in the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from population-based German samples.


Analyses are based on data of 456 individuals diagnosed with T2DM who participated in two population-based studies in southern Germany (KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-A: 1997/1998, n = 178; KORA-S4: 1999–2001, n = 278). We compared the participants’ 10-year observed incidence of mortality, CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke with the predicted event rate of the UKPDS-OM2. The model’s calibration was evaluated by Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests and discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics.


Of the 456 participants with T2DM (mean age 65 years, mean diabetes duration 8 years, 56% male), over the 10-year follow-up time 129 died (61 due to CV events), 64 experienced an MI, and 46 a stroke. The UKPDS-OM2 significantly over-predicted mortality and CV mortality by 25% and 28%, respectively (Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests: p < 0.01), but there was no significant difference between predicted and observed MI and stroke risk. The model poorly discriminated for death (C-statistic [95% confidence interval] = 0.64 [0.60–0.69]), CV death (0.64 [0.58–0.71]), and MI (0.58 [0.52–0.66]), and failed to discriminate for stroke (0.57 [0.47–0.66]).


The study results demonstrate acceptable calibration and poor discrimination of the UKPDS-OM2 for predicting death and CV events in this population-based German sample. Those limitations should be considered when using the UKPDS-OM2 for economic evaluations of healthcare strategies or using the risk equations for clinical decision-making.


Author Contributions

ML planned the analysis, supervised analysis of the data, and drafted the manuscript. VMS analyzed the data and was a major contributor to the draft of the manuscript. CK consulted on the data analysis and commented on the manuscript draft. RH consulted on the data analysis, was involved in the data collection, and commented on the manuscript draft. AP, CM, WR, and KM were involved in the data collection and commented on the manuscript draft. KK was a major contributor to the draft of the manuscript.

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of interest

Michael Laxy, Verena M. Schöning, Christoph Kurz, Rolf Holle, Annette Peters, Christa Meisinger, Wolfgang Rathmann, Kristin Mühlenbruch, and Katharina Kähm declare that they have no competing interests.


The KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) research platform was initiated and financed by the Helmholtz Zentrum München (the German Research Center for Environmental Health), which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and by the State of Bavaria. Furthermore, KORA research was supported within the Munich Center of Health Sciences (MC Health), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU), as part of the LMUinnovative.

Supplementary material

40273_2019_822_MOESM1_ESM.doc (64 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 64 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michael Laxy
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Verena Maria Schöning
    • 1
    • 3
  • Christoph Kurz
    • 1
    • 2
  • Rolf Holle
    • 1
    • 2
  • Annette Peters
    • 4
  • Christa Meisinger
    • 4
  • Wolfgang Rathmann
    • 5
  • Kristin Mühlenbruch
    • 6
  • Katharina Kähm
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)NeuherbergGermany
  2. 2.German Center for Diabetes Research, DZDNeuherberg-MunichGermany
  3. 3.Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometrics and EpidemiologyLudwig-Maximilians-Universität MünchenMunichGermany
  4. 4.Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)NeuherbergGermany
  5. 5.Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes CenterDüsseldorfGermany
  6. 6.Department of Molecular EpidemiologyGerman Institute of Human NutritionPotsdamGermany

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