Evaluation of physical changes (temperature and salinity) in the Persian Gulf waters due to climate change using field data and numerical modeling
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Salinity and temperature are two important physical parameters of seawater that determine the life conditions, development of herbal creatures and sea animals and the class of human activity at the sea. They are also important due to their effects on chemical and biochemical processes that are vital to sea organisms. In this study, the effects of climate change on these physical characteristics of the Persian Gulf waters have been evaluated from 1992 to 2018. A one-dimensional numerical oceanic model, called Program for Boundary layer Environment, and some field data were used to determine the long-term changes of these characteristics. The input data of this model include meteorological information obtained from European Center for Medium Range Forecasting. For vertical turbulence simulation, Axell–Liungman, Omstedt, Rodi, Pacanowski and Marchuk schemes were used for some stations located in the Persian Gulf and the results were compared to some measurements of temperature and salinity at three other stations in the Persian Gulf. The results showed that Omstedt scheme was the best at stimulating the vertical turbulence in the Persian Gulf. Statistical homogeneity tests on the predicted time series on temperature and salinity showed that they are homogeneous. The results clearly indicate the annual variations of temperature (ranging between 20 and 36 °C), as well as showing mild increasing trends of about 1–2 °C in 10–30 years which is rather dramatic for this sea.
KeywordsPhysical changes Temperature and salinity The Persian Gulf Climate change PROBE model
The authors would like to extend their gratitude to all who assisted in conducting this work.
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