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Analysis of 100% renewable energy for Iran in 2030: integrating solar PV, wind energy and storage

  • A. Aghahosseini
  • D. Bogdanov
  • N. Ghorbani
  • C. Breyer
Original Paper

Abstract

The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.

Keywords

Energy system modeling Electricity Renewable technologies Levelized cost of electricity Economics 

List of symbols

a

Annual/years

A-CAES

Adiabatic compressed air energy storage

BP

British Petroleum

Capex

Capital Expenditure

CCGT

Combined cycle gas turbine

CCS

Carbon capture and storage

CO2

Carbon dioxide

COP21

Conference of the Parties—the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference

crf

Capital recovery factor

CSP

Concentrating solar thermal power

Ecurt

Curtailed excess energy

Edemand

Electricity demand

Egen

Annual electricity generation

Estor,ch

Electricity for charging storage

Estor,disch

Electricity from discharging storage

EIA

US Energy Information Administration

el

Electric units

FLH

Full load hours

h

Hour

HVDC

High voltage direct current

IEA

International Energy Agency

instCap

Installed capacity

km

Kilometer

kWh

Kilowatt hour

LCOC

Levelized cost of curtailment

LCOE

Levelized cost of electricity

LCOS

Levelized cost of storage

LCOW

Levelized cost of water

m3

Cubic meter

MENA

Middle East and North Africa

min

Minimum

MW

Megawatt

MWh

Megawatt hour

OCGT

Open cycle gas turbine

OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Opex

Operating and maintenance expenditures

Opexfix

Fixed operational expenditures

Opexvar

Variable operational expenditures

PHS

Pumped hydro storage

PtG

Power-to-gas

PV

Solar photovoltaic

rampCost

Cost of ramping

RE

Renewable Energy

RoR

Run-of-River

SC

Self-consumption

SNG

Synthetic natural gas

SoC

State-of-charge

stor

Storage technologies

SWRO

Seawater reverse osmosis

t

Technology

tech

All modeled technologies

TES

Thermal energy storage

th

Thermal units

totRamp

Sum of power ramping values

TPES

Total primary energy supply

TWh

Terawatt hour

UTC

Coordinated Universal Time

WACC

Weighted average cost of capital

η

Efficiency

Euro

For all

N-Ary summation

Small Element Of

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes (Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation) for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the Number 40101/14. The authors would like to thank Michael Child for proofreading.

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Copyright information

© Islamic Azad University (IAU) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Energy SystemsLappeenranta University of TechnologyLappeenrantaFinland

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