Evidence of climate effects on the height-diameter relationships of tree species
- 296 Downloads
The mean temperature from March to September affects the height-diameter relationship of many tree species in France. For most of these species, the temperature effect is nonlinear, which makes the identification of an optimal temperature possible. Increases in mean temperature could impact the volume supply of commercial species by the end of the twenty-first century.
Height-diameter (HD) relationships are central in forestry since they are essential to estimate tree volume and biomass. Since the late 1960s, efforts have been made to generalize models of HD relationships through the inclusion of plot- and tree-level explanatory variables. In some recent studies, climate variables such as mean annual temperature and precipitation have been found to have a significant effect on HD allometry. However, in these studies, the effects were all considered to be linear or almost linear, which supposes that there is no optimal temperature and no optimal precipitation.
In this study, we tested the hypothesis that an optimum effect of temperature and precipitation exists on tree heights.
We fitted generalized models of HD relationships to 44 tree species distributed across France. To make sure that the climate variables would not hide some differences in terms of the local environment, the models included explanatory variables accounting for competition, tree social status and other plot-level factors such as slope inclination and the occurrence of harvesting in the last five years.
It turned out that the temperature effect was significant for 33 out of 44 species and an optimum was found in 26 cases. The precipitation effect was linear and was found to be significant for only seven species. Although the two climate variables did not contribute as much as the competition and the social status indices to the model fit, they were still important contributors. Under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and the assumptions of constant form factors and forest conditions in terms of competition and social statuses, it is expected that approximately two thirds of the species with climate-sensitive HD relationships will generally be shorter. This would induce a decrease in volume ranging from 1 to 5% for most of these species.
Forest practitioners should be aware that the volume supply of some commercial species could decrease by the end of the twenty-first century. However, these losses could be partly compensated for by changes in the form factors and the species distributions.
KeywordsGeneralized height-diameter relationship Mean temperature Mean precipitation Linear mixed-effects model Climate change
The authors wish to thank the Institut national de l’information géographique et forestière (IGN) that provided the French NFI data. Thanks to the two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editors for their constructive comments on a preliminary version of this paper.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
Conflict of Interest
- Anonymous (2000) Les indicateurs de gestion durable des forêts françaises. Technical report, French Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries and French National Forest Inventory. Available online at. http://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/IMG/pdf/indicateurs.pdf
- Auger I (2016) Une nouvelle relation hauteur-diamètre tenant compte de l’influence de la station et du climat pour 27 essences commerciales du Québec. Technical report, Gouvernement du Québec, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Direction de la recherche forestière, Note de recherche forestiè,re no 146Google Scholar
- Bontemps J -D, Hervé J -C, Dhôte J -F (2009) Long-term changes in forest productivity: a consistent assessment in even-aged stands. For Sci 55:549–564Google Scholar
- Burnham K P, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Chave J, Réjou-Méchain M, Búrquez A, Chidumayo E, Colgan M S, Delitti W B C, Duque A, Eid T, Fearnside P M, Goodman R C, Henry M, Martínez-Yrízar A, Mugasha W A, Muller-Landau H C, Mencuccini M, Nelson B W, Ngomanda A, Nogueira E M, Ortiz-Malavassi E, Pélissier R, Ploton P, Ryan C M, Saldarriaga J G, Vieilledent G (2015) Improved allometric models to estimate aboveground biomass of tropical trees. Glob Chang Biol 20:3177–3190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Curtis R O (1967) Height-diameter and height-diameter-age equations for second-growth Douglas-fir. For Sci 13:365–375Google Scholar
- Feldpausch T R, Banin L, Phillips O L, Baker T R, Lewis S L, Quesada C A, Affum-Baffoe K, Arets E J M M, Berry N J, Bird M, Brondizio ES, de Camargo P, Chave J, Djagbletey G, Domingues TF, Drescher M, Fearnside PM, Franca MB, Fyllas NM, Lopez-Gonzalez G, Hladik A, Higuchi N, Hunter MO, Iida Y, Salim KA, Kassim AR, Keller M, Kemp J, King DA, Lovett JC, Marimon BS, Marimon-Junior BH, Lenza E, Marshall AR, Metcalfe DJ, Mitchard ETA, Moran EF, Nelson BW, Nilus R, Nogueira EM, Palace M, Patiño S, Peh KS-H, Raventos MT, Reitsma JM, Saiz G, Schrodt F, Sonké B, Taedoumg HE, Tan S, White L, Wöll H, Lloyd J (2011) Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees. Biogeosciences 8:1081–1106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Fortin M, Bernier S, Saucier J -P, Labbé F (2009) Une relation hauteur-diamètre tenant compte de l’influence de la station et du climat pour 20 espèces commerciales du Québec Technical report, Gouvernement du Québec, Ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune, Direction de la recherche forestière, Mé,moire de recherche forestière no 153Google Scholar
- Gregoire T G (1987) Generalized error structure for forest yield models. For Sci 33:423–444Google Scholar
- Gregoire T G, Valentine HT (2008) Sampling strategies for natural resources and the environment. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar
- Hall D B, Bailey R L (2001) Modeling and prediction of forest growth variables based on multilevel nonlinear mixed models. For Sci 47(3):311–321Google Scholar
- IGN (2016) Résultats d’inventaire forestier Méthodologie Pour bien comprendre les résultats publiés 2011-2015. Technical report, Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière (IGN)Google Scholar
- IGN (2017) Le mémento inventaire forestier. Edition 2017. Technical report, Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière (IGN)Google Scholar
- IPCC (2013a) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the international panel on climate change, chapter annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (2013b) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the international panel on climate change, chapter annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections supplementary material RCP26. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Kearsley E, Moonen P C J, Hufkens K, Doetterl S, Lisingo J, Bosela F B, Boeckx P, Beeckman H, Verbeeck H (2017) Model performance of tree height-diameter relationships in the central Congo Basin. Annals of Forest Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-016-0611-0
- Lappi J, Bailey R L (1988) A height prediction model with random stand and tree parameters: an alternative to traditional site index methods. For Sci 34:907–927Google Scholar
- Larson BC (1992) The ecology and silviculture of mixed-species forests, chapter pathways of development in mixed-species stands, pages 3–10. Kluwer Academic, NetherlandsGoogle Scholar
- Littell RC, Milliken GA, Stroup WW, Wolfinger RD, Schabenberger O (2006) SAS for mixed models, 2nd edn. SAS Institute Inc, CaryGoogle Scholar
- Lu J, Zhang L (2013) Evaluation of structure specification in linear models for modeling the spatial effects in tree height-diameter relationships. Ann For Res 56:137–148Google Scholar
- McCullagh P, Nelder J A (1989) Generalized linear models monographs of statistics and applied probability 37, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Oliver C D, Larson BC (1996) Forest stand dynamics updated edition. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Perron J -Y, Fortin M, Blais G, Blais L, Carpentier J -P, Cloutier J, Del Degan B, Demers D, Gagnon R, Létourneau J -P, Morin P, Richard Y, Ung C -H (2009) Manuel de Foresterie, 2e Edition, chapter Dendrométrie et inventaire forestier. Multimondes, Montréal, pp 567–629Google Scholar
- Rameau J-C, Mansion D, Dumé G, Timbal J, Lecointe A, Dupont P, Keller R (1989) Flore Forestière Française Guide écologique illustré. Volume 1. Plaines et collines. Institut pour le Développement ForestierGoogle Scholar
- Régnière J, Saint-Amant R, Béchard A (2014) BioSIM 10 – User’s manual technical report natural resources Canada. Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest ServiceGoogle Scholar
- Schneider R, Franceschini T, Fortin M, Saucier J-P (2018) Climate-induced changes in the stem form of 5 North American tree species. Forest ecology and management. https://doi.org/10.1016/jforeco201712026
- Sharma R P, Breidenbach J (2015) Modeling height-diameter relationships for Norway spruce, Scots pine, and downy birch using Norwegian national forest inventory data. For Sci Technol 11:44–53Google Scholar
- Smith D M, Larson B C, Kelty M J, Ashton PMS (1997) The Practice of Silviculture Applied Forest Ecology, 9th edn. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- UNFCCC (2015) Adoption of the Paris agreement. Technical report, United nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf