Advertisement

Annals of Forest Science

, Volume 71, Issue 3, pp 313–324 | Cite as

Using scenarios for forest adaptation to climate change: a foresight study of the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050

  • Olivier MoraEmail author
  • Vincent Banos
  • Margot Regolini
  • Jean-Michel Carnus
Letter to the Editor
First Online:

Introduction

To ensure that forest ecosystem services will be maintained in future climate conditions, the challenge of developing and implementing forest adaptation strategies has become a priority shared across Europe (European Commission 2010) and around the world (FAO 2012). A critical aspect of any adaptation (and mitigation) strategy is to ensure that management choices have sufficient flexibility and are consistent with sustainable forest management (SFM) principles that balance the forest’s social, ecological and economic outputs. Most current studies, however, still tend to consider forest adaptation independently of exogenous developments (Seppälä et al. 2009), or are based on forecasting and thus only extrapolate from current trends. Yet the futures of forest systems are also uncertain because change may come mainly from socio-economic, and not ecological, drivers (Schoene and Bernier 2012). Climate change will, moreover, have a highly uncertain effect on socio-ecological...

Keywords

Adaptation Scenarios Climate change Forest planning Wood sector Regional scale Biodiversity Landes de Gascogne 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the support of the Aquitaine Regional Council and the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) for steering and funding this research and wish to thank all members of the expert panel, Thomas Alban, Alain Bailly, Christophe Bergouignan, Guillaume Chantre, Agnès Charousset, Georges Cingal, Stéphane Couture, Jeoffrey Dehez, Philippe Deuffic, Antoine Kremer, Yves Lesgourgues, Hervé Le Treut, Bernard Itier, Jean-Luc Peyron, Pierre Pouget, Olivier Roger, Henri Tardieu†, Laurent Trijoulet, and its Chairman, Michel Casteigts, for their contribution to the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050 foresight study. An initial version of this paper was presented at the “Tackling Climate Change: The Contribution of Forest Scientific Knowledge” international conference held in May 2012 in Tours, France.

References

  1. Adger WN, Agrawala S, Mirza MMQ, Conde C, O’Brien K, Pulhin J, Pulwarty R, Smit B, Takahashi K (2007) Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In: Metz B, Davidson OR, Bosch PR, Dave R, Meyer LA (eds) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 717–744Google Scholar
  2. Bélis-Bergouignan MC, Levy R (2010) Sharing a common resource in a sustainable development context: the case of a wood innovation system. Technol Forecast Soc 77:1126–1138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bergouignan C, Inan C, LLopart M (2011) Démographie du Massif des Landes de Gascogne. Analyse rétrospective et prospective tendancielle. Rapport d’étude démographique. Institut d’Études Démographiques de l’Université Bordeaux IV, Bordeaux, 30 pGoogle Scholar
  4. Berkhout F, Hertin J, Jordan AJ (2002) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as “Learning Machines”. Glob Environ Chang 12:83–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Biggs R, Raudsepp-Hearne C, Atkinson-Palombo C, Bohensky E, Boyd E, Cundill G, Fox H, Ingram S, Kok K, Spehar S, Tengö M, Timmer D, Zurek M (2007) Linking futures across scales: a dialog on multiscale scenarios. Ecol Soc 12(1): 17. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art17/
  6. Bosc A (2011) Quantification des impacts du changement climatique sur les forêts à l’échelle régionale et identification des sources d’incertitude. Presentation at the “Vulnérabilités des forêts au changement climatique” seminar, 17 November 2011, ParisGoogle Scholar
  7. Brisson N, Levrault F (eds) (2010) Changement climatique, agriculture et forêt en France : simulations d’impacts sur les principales espèces. Le livre vert du projet Climator 2007-2010, ADEME, Paris, 336 pGoogle Scholar
  8. Carpenter SR, Bennett EM, Peterson GD (2006) Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview. Ecol Soc 11(1): 29. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/
  9. Chatry C, Le Quentrec M, Laurens D, Le Gallou JY, Lafitte JJ, Creuchet B (2010) Changement climatique et extension des zones sensibles aux feux de forêts. Interministerial mission report, Paris, 90 pGoogle Scholar
  10. COST (2011) Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services: Dissemination Conference. COST Strategic Workshop series, Sekocin Stary, Poland. http://www.cost.eu/events/Forestry-Foresight-Dissemination-Conference. Accessed 02 September 2013
  11. Dupuis J, Knoepfel P (2011) Les barrières à la mise en œuvre des politiques d’adaptation au changement climatique: le cas de la Suisse. Swiss Polit Sci Rev 17:188–219CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. European Commission (2010) On Forest Protection and Information in the EU: Preparing forests for climate change, Green paper, Brussels. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2010:0066:FIN:EN:PDF. Accessed 02 September 2013
  13. FAO (2012) Forest Management and Climate Change: a literature review. Forests and Climate Change Working Paper 10. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 55 pGoogle Scholar
  14. Frittaion CM, Duinker PN, Grant JL (2011) Suspending disbelief: influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures. Technol Forecast Soc 78:421–430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Gamfeldt L, Snäll T, Bagchi R, Jonsson M, Gustafsson L, Kjellander P, Ruiz-Jaen MC, Fröberg M, Stendah J, Philipson CD, Mikusinski G, Andersson E, Westerlund B, Andren H, Moberg F, Moen J, Bengtsson J (2013) Higher levels of multiple ecosystem services are found in forests with more tree species. Nat Commun 4:1340. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2328 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. GIP ECOFOR (2010) Expertise sur l’avenir du massif forestier de la forêt des Landes de Gascogne. Résumé pour décideurs, 14 p. http://landes.gip-ecofor.org/data/ResumeExpertiseLandes.pdf. Accessed 02 September 2013
  17. Godet M (2002) Foresight and territorial dynamics. Foresight 4–5:9–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Henrichs T, Zurek M, Eickout B, Kok K, Raudsepp-Hearne C, Ribeiro T, van Vuuren D, Volkery A (2010) Scenario development and analysis for forward-looking ecosystem assessments. In: Ash N et al (eds) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Manual for Assessment Practitioners. Island Press, pp 151–220Google Scholar
  19. Hoogstra MA (2008) Coping with the long term—an empirical analysis of time perspectives, time orientations, and temporal uncertainty in forestry. PhD thesis. Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University, pp 91-99Google Scholar
  20. Hurmekoski E, Hetemäki L (2013) Studying the future of the forest sector: review and implications for long-term outlook studies. Forest Policy Econ 34:17–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Jactel H, Brockerhoff EG (2007) Tree diversity reduces herbivory by forest insects. Ecol Lett 10:835–848CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Jonsson R (2011) Trends and possible future developments in global forest-product markets—implications for the Swedish Forest Sector. Forests 2:147–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Loinger G (ed) (2006) Développement des territoires et prospective stratégique : enjeux, méthodes et pratiques. L’Harmattan, Paris, 225 pGoogle Scholar
  24. Mermet L (2009) Extending the perimeter of reflexive debate on futures research: an open framework. Futures 41:105–115CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Mermet L, Farcy C (2011) Contexts and concepts of forest planning in a diverse and contradictory world. Forest Policy Econ 13:361–365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Moen J, Nordin A, Larsson S (2012) Future forests scenarios 2050: Possible Futures, Future Possibilities. EFP Brief (209): 4 pGoogle Scholar
  27. Mora O, Banos V, Carnus JM, Regolini M (eds) (2012) Le massif des Landes de Gascogne à l’horizon 2050. Rapport de l’étude prospective, Aquitaine Regional Council–INRA, 290 pGoogle Scholar
  28. Paquette A, Messier C (2011) The effect of biodiversity on tree productivity: from temperate to boreal forests. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 20:170–180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Peings H, Jamous M, Planton S, Le Treut H (2011) Scénarios climatiques: indices sur la France métropolitaine pour les modèles français ARPEGE-Climat et LMDz et quelques projections pour les DOM-COM. Report for the French National Plan for Adaptation, 139 pGoogle Scholar
  30. Piou D, Jactel H (2010) L’avenir du massif forestier des Landes de Gascogne. Rapport d’expertise sur l’évaluation des risques biotiques - critère C4 risques sanitaires. GIP Ecofor, 19 p. http://landes.gip-ecofor.org/data/RFC40310.pdf. Accessed 02 September 2013
  31. Prospektiker, Futuribles, Destrée Institute (Roëls CA, Destatte P, Hernaez O, Van Cutsem M, Zugasti I) (2011) An Initial Assessment of Territorial Forward Planning/Foresight Projects in the European Union. Territorial Foresight and European Multilevel Governance. Report CDR/CDP/49/2010, Committee of the Regions. 246 pGoogle Scholar
  32. Rounsevell M, Metzger MJ (2010) Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1:606–619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Schoene DH, Bernier PY (2012) Adapting forestry and forests to climate change: a challenge to change the paradigm. Forest Policy Econ 24:12–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Seppälä R, Buck A, Katila P (2009) Adaptation of forests and people to climate change: a global assessment report. Prepared by the Global Expert Panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change, IUFRO World Series 22, Vienna, 51 pGoogle Scholar
  35. Sergent A (2010) Régulation politique du secteur forestier en France et changement d’échelle de l’action publique. Eco rural 318–319:96–110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Shaw A, Sheppard S, Burch S, Flanders D, Wiek A, Carmichael J, Robinson J, Cohen S (2009) Making local futures tangible—synthesizing, downscaling, and visualizing climate change scenarios for participatory capacity building. Glob Environ Chang 19:447–463CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Slee B, Robert D, Evans R (2004) Forestry in the rural economy: a new approach to assessing the impact of forestry on rural development. Forestry 77:441–453CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Spathelf P, van der Maaten E, van der Maaten-Theunissen M, Campioli M, Dobrowolska D (2013) Climate change impacts in European Forests: the expert views of local observers. Ann For Sci. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-013-0280-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Thompson JR, Wiek A, Swanson FJ, Carpenter SR, Fresco N, Hollingsworth T, Spies TA, Foster DR (2012) Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. Bioscience 62:367–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Tschakert P, Dietrich KA (2010) Anticipatory learning for climate change adaptation and resilience. Ecol Soc 15(2): 11. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss2/art11/
  41. Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (2000) Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landsc Urban Plan 47:65–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© INRA and Springer-Verlag France 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Olivier Mora
    • 1
    Email author
  • Vincent Banos
    • 2
  • Margot Regolini
    • 3
  • Jean-Michel Carnus
    • 4
  1. 1.INRADelegation for scientific expertise, foresight and advanced studies (DEPE)Paris Cedex 07France
  2. 2.National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (IRSTEA)Amenities and Dynamics of Rural Areas research unit (UR ADBX)Cestas CedexFrance
  3. 3.European Forest Institute—INRAJoint Research Unit for Biodiversity, Genes and Communities (UMR BIOGECO)Cestas CedexFrance
  4. 4.INRAForest, Grassland and Freshwater Ecology Department (EFPA), Bordeaux-Aquitaine Research CentreCestasFrance

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options