AMBIO

, Volume 40, Issue 2, pp 221–230 | Cite as

Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition

Article

Abstract

Between 1985 and 1995, fertility in Eastern Europe declined from 2.2 children per woman to merely 1.5 on region-average. Previous research has emphasized mainly the economic turmoil during transition or the influx of new ideas regarding fertility and family relations. This article suggests that applying a risk management perspective on fertility patterns may put additional light on the reasons behind the fertility decline in post-communist Europe. The complexity of modern social systems has made people increasingly dependent on the state for risk evaluation and risk management. The article formulates the hypothesis that transition itself disrupted the mental models that helped people to navigate among the risks associated to having and raising children. Left to their own devices, women in Eastern Europe became more inclined to postpone childbirth or discard this option altogether.

Keywords

Anomie Eastern Europe Fertility Risk management Transition 

References

  1. Adler, M. 1997. Social Change and Declines in Marriage and Fertility in Eastern Germany. Journal of Marriage and Family 59: 37–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ådnanes, M. 2007. Social transitions and anomie among post-communist Bulgarian youth. Young 15: 45–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arts, W., and M. Gijsberts. 1998. After the velvet revolutions. Altered life-chances, fragile legitimacy, and split-consciousness in post-communist Eastern Europe. Social Justice Research 11: 143–171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Arts, W., P. Hermkens, and P. Van Wijck. 1995. Anomie, distributive justice and dissatisfaction with material well-being in Eastern Europe. International Journal of Comparative Sociology 36: 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Atteslander, P. 2007. Social Transformation in the Age of Globalization. A Challenge to Reduce Anomie and to Increase Social Capital. International Review of Sociology 17: 489–494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bakacsi, G., T. Sándor, K. András, and I. Viktor. 2002. Eastern European cluster: tradition and transition. Journal of World Business 37: 69–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Berent, J. 1970. Causes of Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet union II: Economic and Social Factors. Population Studies 24: 247–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Boongarts, J., and S. Cotts Watkins. 1996. Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions. Population and Development Review 22: 639–682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Brackett, J. 1968. The Evolution of Marxist Theories of Population: Marxism Recognizes the Population Problem. Demography 5: 158–173.Google Scholar
  10. Bühler, C., and E. Fratczak. 2004. Social capital and fertility intentions: the case of Poland. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper 2004–012.Google Scholar
  11. Bühler, C., and D. Philipov. 2005. Social capital related to fertility: Theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria. In Vienna yearbook of population research 2005, ed. W. Lutz and G. Feichtinger, 51–83. Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences Press.Google Scholar
  12. Büttner, T., and W. Lutz. 1990. Estimating Fertility Responses to Policy Measures in the German Democratic Republic. Population and Development Review 16: 539–555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Caldwell, J.C. 2001. The Globalization of Fertility Behavior. Population and Development Review 27: 93–115.Google Scholar
  14. Cornia, G., and R. Paniccia. 1995. The Demographic Impact of Sudden Impoverishment: Eastern Europe During the 1989–1994 Transition. Innocenti Occasional Papers No. 49.Google Scholar
  15. David, H. 1982. Eastern Europe: Pronatalist Policies and Private Behavior. Population Bulletin 36: 6.Google Scholar
  16. Diamond, L. 1999. Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation. London: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
  17. Durkheim, É. 1983. Självmordet. [Ny uppl.] Lund: Argos.Google Scholar
  18. Ekman, J., and J. Linde. 2002. Communist Nostalgia in Central and Eastern Europe. A Matter of Principles or Performance? Conference paper, NOPSA Annual Meeting, Aalborg, Denmark, August 15–17, 2002.Google Scholar
  19. Generation and Gender Programme Database (http://www.ggp-i.org/).
  20. Grugel, J. 2002. Democratization, a critical introduction. New York: Palgrave.Google Scholar
  21. Hoem, J., and D. Kostova. 2008. Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004. Population Studies 62: 259–271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hoem, J., D. Kostova, A. Jasilioniene, and C. Mureşan. 2009. Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation. European Journal of Population 25: 239–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kasperson, R., O. Renn, P. Slovic, H. Brown, and J. Emel. 1988. The Social Amplification of Risk: A conceptual framework. Risk Analysis 8: 177–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kawachi, I., and L. Berkman. 2000. Social cohesion, social capital, and health. In Social epidemiology, ed. Lisa Berkman, and Ichiro Kawachi, 174–190. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  25. Klinke, A., and O. Renn. 2002. A New Approach to Risk Evaluation and Management: Risk-Based, Precaution-Based, and Discourse-Based Strategies. Risk Analysis 22: 1071–1094.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kohler, H.-P., F. Billari, and J. Antonio Ortega. 2002. The Emergence of lowest-Low Fertility in Europe during the 1990s. http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~kohler/ftp/llf.pdf
  27. Kohler, H.-P., and I. Kohler. 2002. Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crisis. European Journal of Population 18: 233–262.Google Scholar
  28. Kohlmann, A., and S. Zuev. 2001. Patterns of childbearing in Russia 1994–1998. MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2001–018.Google Scholar
  29. Lindley, D.V. 2006. Understanding Uncertainty. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Lindley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Merton, R. 1968. Social theory and social structure. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  31. Mishler, W., and R. Rose. 1997. What Are the Origins of Political trust?: Testing Institutional and Cultural Theories in Post-communist Societies. Comparative Political Studies 34: 30–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Philipov, D. 2002. Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe. MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2002-024.Google Scholar
  33. Philipov, D., and A. Jasilioniene. 2007. Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: a life table description of recent trends. MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2007-005.Google Scholar
  34. Philipov, D., and H.-P. Kohler. 2001. Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia. European Journal of Population 17: 37–60.Google Scholar
  35. Philipov, D., Z. Spéder, and F. Billari. 2005. Now or Later? Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria and Hungary and the Impact of Anomie and Social Capial. Vienna Institute of Demography. Working Papers 08/2005.Google Scholar
  36. Philipov, D., Z. Spéder, and F. Billari. 2006. Soon, Later, or Ever? The Impact of Anomie and Social Capital on Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria and Hungary. Population Studies 60: 289–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Putnam, R. 2000. Bowling alone: the collapse and revival of American community. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
  38. Putnam, R.D., R. Leonardi, and R. Nanetti. 1993. Making democracy work. Civic traditions in modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  39. Renn, O. 1998. Three decades of risk research: accomplishments and new challenges. Journal of Risk Research 1: 49–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Renn, O. 2008. Risk Governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World. London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
  41. Rose, R. 1994. Postcommunism and the Problem of Trust. Journal of Democracy 5: 18–30.Google Scholar
  42. Schwartz, S., and A. Bardi. 1997. Influences of Adaptation to Communist Rule on Value Priorities in Eastern Europe. Political Psychology 18: 385–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sobotka, T. 2008. The diverse faces of the Second Demographic transition in Europe. Demographic Research 19: 171–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Sobotka, T., K. Zeman, and V. Kantorova. 2003. Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A Second Demographic Transition View. European Journal of Population 19: 249–277.Google Scholar
  45. Srole, L. 1956. Social Integration and Certain Corollaries: An Exploratory Study. American Sociological Review 21: 709–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Surkyn, J., and R. Lesthaeghe. 2004. Value Orientation and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update. Demographic Research, Special Collection 3.Google Scholar
  47. Szreter, S., and M. Woolcock. 2004. Health by association? Social capital, social theory, and the political economy of public health. International Journal of Epidemiology 33: 650–667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. van de Kaa, D. 1996. Anchored Narratives: The story and finding of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. Population studies 50: 389–432.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. van de Kaa, D. 2002. The Idea of a Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries. Conference paper presented at the Sixth Welfare Policy Seminar of the National Institute of Population and Social Security, Tokyo, Japan, 29 January.Google Scholar
  50. Wilkinson, R., and K. Pickett. 2009. The Spirit Level. New York: Bloomsbury Press.Google Scholar
  51. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Highlights. NY: United Nations (http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=1).

Copyright information

© Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Södertörn UniversityHuddingeSweden

Personalised recommendations