Advertisement

Transport modeling of 137Cs in soil after Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by point cumulative semi-variogram method

  • Sevim Bilici
  • Ahmet Bilici
  • Fatih KülahcıEmail author
Original Article

Abstract

The positions distribution of the regional variables in space have irregular or sometimes random scatter. In such a case, their study can be rather difficult and sometimes impossible by means of differential equations. Although variogram or semi-variogram (SV) methodology in the literature is employed to model the regional variable, in this paper, the use of the point cumulative SV (PCSV) procedure application is suggested for the 137Cs data, which is one of the most important radioactive nuclei not only for radioactive contamination of the environment after the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant, but any nuclear accident whatsoever. As a result of the PCSV models, the categorical description of the 137Cs concentrations spatial distribution and transport characteristics are determined and interpreted. Prior to the application of the model, log-transformation is performed to fit the 137Cs data to the classical normal probability distribution and the normality of data is tested by Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. According to the PCSV models, five different categories describe whole spatial distribution and transport properties of 137Cs concentrations and also iso-radioactivity map is obtained for 137Cs.

Keywords

Fukushima Radioactive fallout Spatial analysis Point cumulative semi-variogram 137Cs transport Modeling 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research has been conducted by Firat University Scientific Research Projects Management Unit (Grant number: 1812). We are also grateful to Olaf Kolditz (Editor-in-Chief) for his excellent management of the editorial process, and to three anonymous reviewers for their efforts in developing the research.

References

  1. Abraham JP, Whicker FW, Hinton TG, Rowan DJ (2000) Inventory and spatial pattern of in a pond: a comparison of two survey methods. J Environ Radioact 51:157–171.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0265-931X(00)00052-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Atkinson Peter M, Lloyd CD (2010) geoENV VII geostatistics for environmental applications quantitative geology and geostatistics, Vol 16. Springer, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bailly du Bois P, Laguionie P, Boust D et al (2012) Estimation of marine source-term following Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. J Environ Radioact 114:2–9.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.11.015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bilici S, Bilici A, Külahcı F (2018) Geostatistical modelling for 134Cs released from the Fukushima radioactive fallout. J Phys Chem Funct Mater 1:92–101Google Scholar
  5. Bivand RS, Pebesma EJ, Gomez-Rubio V (2008) Applied spatial data analysis with R. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  6. Chino M, Nakayama H, Nagai H et al (2011) Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the atmosphere. J Nucl Sci Technol 48:1129–1134.  https://doi.org/10.1080/18811248.2011.9711799 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Clark I (1979) Practical geostatistics. Elsevier, LondonGoogle Scholar
  8. Davis JC (2002) Statistics and data analysis in geology. Wiley, VancouverGoogle Scholar
  9. Diggle Peter J, Ribeiro PJ Jr (2006) Model based geostatistics. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  10. Endo S, Kimura S, Takatsuji T et al (2012) Measurement of soil contamination by radionuclides due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and associated estimated cumulative external dose estimation. J Environ Radioact 111:18–27.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.11.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fotheringham A, Brunsdon C, Charlton M (2000) Qualitative geography perspectives on spatial data analysis. Sage Publications, LondonGoogle Scholar
  12. Franic Z, Lokobauer N (1993) 90Sr and 137Cs in pilchards from the Adriatic Sea. Arh Hig Rada Toksikol 44:293–301Google Scholar
  13. Harms IH (1997) Modelling the dispersion of 137Cs and 239Pu released from dumped waste in the Kara Sea. J Mar Syst 13:1–19.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(96)00117-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hengl T (2009) A practical guide to geostatistical mapping. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, LuxembourgGoogle Scholar
  15. Hirose K (2012) 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: summary of regional radioactive deposition monitoring results. J Environ Radioact 111:13–17.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.09.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Imanaka T, Hayashi G, Endo S (2015) Comparison of the accident process, radioactivity release and ground contamination between Chernobyl and Fukushima-1. J Radiat Res 56:I56–I61.  https://doi.org/10.1093/jrr/rrv074 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Isaaks Edward H, Srivastava RM (1989) An introduction to applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  18. Japan Atomic Energy Agency (2009) https://emdb.jaea.go.jp/emdb/. Accessed 24 Dec 18 (in Japanese)
  19. Journel AG, Huijbregts CJ (1978) Mining geostatistics. Academic Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  20. Kato H, Onda Y, Teramage M (2012) Depth distribution of 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I in soil profile after Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. J Environ Radioact 111:59–64.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Krige DG (1966) Two-dimensional weighted moving average trend surfaces for ore-evaluation. J S Afr Inst Min Metall 66:13–38Google Scholar
  22. Külahcı F (2016a)) Spatiotemporal (four-dimensional) modelling and simulation of uranium (238). Environ Earth Sci 75:452.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5302-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Külahcı F (2016b) Proposals for risk assessment of major cations in surface water and deep sediment: iso-cation curves, probabilities of occurrence and non-occurrence of cations. Environ Earth Sci 75:980.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5788-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Külahcı F, Şen Z (2009) Spatio-temporal modeling of 210Pb transportation in lake environments. J Hazard Mater 165:525–532CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Külahcı F, Şen Z, Kazanç S (2008) Cesium concentration spatial distribution modeling by point cumulative semivariogram. Water Air Soil Pollut 195:151–160.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-008-9734-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Ly S, Charles C, Degré A (2011) Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:2259–2274.  https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2259-2011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. McGrath D, Zhang C, Carton OT (2004) Geostatistical analyses and hazard assessment on soil lead in Silvermines area, Ireland. Environ Pollut 127:239–248.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2003.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Melgunov MS, Pokhilenko NP, Strakhovenko VD et al (2012) Fallout traces of the Fukushima NPP accident in southern West Siberia (Novosibirsk, Russia). Environ Sci Pollut Res 19:1323–1325.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-011-0659-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. MEXT Culture, Sports, Science and Technology JM of E MEXT, Japan Ministry of Education (2011a) Reading of environmental radioactivity level by prefecture. http://www.mext.go.jp/ Accessed 10 Oct 2011
  30. MEXT Extension Site of Distribution Map of Radiation Dose, etc (WWW Document) (2011b) http://ramap.jmc.or.jp/map/eng/. Accessed 10 Oct 2011
  31. Mikami S, Maeyama T, Hoshide Y et al (2015) Spatial distributions of radionuclides deposited onto ground soil around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant and their temporal change until December 2012. J Environ Radioact 139:320–343.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.09.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Nair RN, Sunny F, Chopra M et al (2014) Estimation of radioactive leakages into the Pacific Ocean due to Fukushima nuclear accident. Environ Earth Sci 71:1007–1019.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2501-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Niimura N, Kikuchi K, Tuyen ND et al (2015) Physical properties, structure, and shape of radioactive Cs from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident derived from soil, bamboo and shiitake mushroom measurements. J Environ Radioact 139:234–239.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2013.12.020 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Niksarlıoğlu S, Külahcı F, Şen Z (2015) Spatiotemporal modeling and simulation of chernobyl radioactive fallout in northern Turkey. J Radioanal Nucl Chem 303:171–186.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-014-3517-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Obara H, Ohkura T, Takata Y et al (2011) Comprehensive soil classification system of Japan first approximation. Bull Natl Inst Agro-Environ 29:1–73 (in Japanese with English summary)Google Scholar
  36. Obara H, Maejıma Y, Kohyama K et al (2015) Outline of the comprehensive soil classification system of Japan—first approximation. JARQ 49:217–226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Perrot F, Hubert P, Marquet C et al (2012) Evidence of 131I and 134,137Cs activities in Bordeaux, France due to the Fukushima nuclear accident. J Environ Radioact 114:61–65.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.12.026 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Piñero García F, Ferro García MA (2012) Traces of fission products in southeast Spain after the Fukushima nuclear accident. J Environ Radioact 114:146–151.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2012.01.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Porcelli D, Andersson PS, Baskaran M, Wasserburg GJ (2001) Transport of U- And Th-series nuclides in a Baltic Shield watershed and the Baltic Sea. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 65:2439–2459.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7037(01)00610-X CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Povinec P, Hirose K, Aoyama M (2013) Fukushima accident: radioactivity impact on the environment. Elsevier, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Şahin AD, Şen Z (2004) A new spatial prediction model and its application to wind records. Theor Appl Climatol 79:45–54.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0037-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Saito K, Tanihata I, Fujiwara M et al (2015) Detailed deposition density maps constructed by large-scale soil sampling for gamma-ray emitting radioactive nuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. J Environ Radioact 139:308–319.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.02.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Schöppner M, Plastino W, Povinec PP et al (2012) Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling. J Environ Radioact 114:10–14.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.11.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Şen Z (1989) Cumulative semivariogram models of regionalized variables. Math Geol 21:891–903.  https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00894454 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Şen Z (1998) Point cumulative semivariogram for identification of heterogeneities in regional seismicity of Turkey. Math Geol 30:767–787.  https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1021704507596 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Şen Z, Habib ZZ (1998) Point cumulative semivariogram of areal precipitation in mountainous regions. J Hydrol 205:81–91.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00146-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Taira T, Hatoyama Y (2011) Nuclear energy: nationalize the Fukushima Daiichi atomic plant. Nature 480:313–314.  https://doi.org/10.1038/480313a CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Tang TY, Tai JH, Yang YJ (2000) The flow pattern north of Taiwan and the migration of the Kuroshio. Cont Shelf Res 20:349–371.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00076-X CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Terada H, Katata G, Chino M, Nagai H (2012) Atmospheric discharge and dispersion of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Part II: Verification of the source term and analysis of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion. J Environ Radioact 112:141–154.  https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JENVRAD.2012.05.023 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Van Der Perk M, Lev T, Gillett AG et al (2000) Spatial modelling of transfer of long-lived radionuclides from soil to agricultural products in the Chernigov region, Ukraine. Ecol Model 128:35–50.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(99)00225-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Watanabe T, Tsuchiya N, Oura Y et al (2012) Distribution of artificial radionuclides (110mAg, 129mTe, 134Cs, 137Cs) in surface soils from Miyagi Prefecture, northeast Japan, following the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. Geochem J 46:279–285.  https://doi.org/10.2343/geochemj.2.0205 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Webster R, Margaret AO (2007) Geostatistics for environmental scientists. Wiley, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Wong GTF, Hung CC (2001) Speciation of dissolved iodine: integrating nitrate uptake over time in the oceans. Cont Shelf Res 21:113–128.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(00)00086-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Yasunari TJ, Stohl A, Hayano RS et al (2011) Cesium-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils due to the Fukushima nuclear accident. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:19530–19534.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112058108 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Zhang X, Long Y, He X et al (2008) A simplified 137Cs transport model for estimating erosion rates in undisturbed soil. J Environ Radioact 99:1242–1246.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2008.03.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Nuclear Physics Division, Physics DepartmentFirat UniversityElazigTurkey
  2. 2.Department of Opticianry, Vocational School of Health ServiceBartin UniversityBartinTurkey

Personalised recommendations