Export taxes, food prices and poverty: a global CGE evaluation
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Export restrictions, such as export taxes, have increased over the last ten years. In addition, export taxes often occur when food prices are high and/or volatile. As such, export taxes have received a lot of attention in the literature, but these studies tend to examine only a single commodity or country. This study seeks to provide more detail into the linkages among export taxes, trade, food prices, and poverty by utilizing a global economic model with detail on export tax occurrence in agriculture. Results show that export taxes do not have a widespread impact on international agricultural prices, but rather that the impact is concentrated in few goods: wheat, coarse grains, and beef. Removing export taxes would benefit regions currently applying taxes through an increase in production and exports and a reduction in poverty. In other regions, which are major agricultural exporters, an increase in competition of exports in international markets could lead to a fall in domestic prices. Our analysis does not find a significant impact of export tax removal on poverty, except among some export tax imposing countries for which poverty falls as a consequence of the removal of export taxes. These results highlight the need to consider the general equilibrium effects of the removal of export taxes.
KeywordsExport taxes Agricultural prices CGE Poverty
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Conflict of interest
The authors declared that they have no conflict of interest.
The findings and conclusions in this preliminary publication have not been formally disseminated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy. This research was supported in part by the intramural research program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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