Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds
- 21 Downloads
The strong, persistent linear trend of the highest period life expectancy of females at birth, namely best-performance life expectancy, is an interesting global phenomenon which has already lasted for about 150 years. In this article, we study both the highest and lowest period life expectancies of a group of more developed countries and areas, and exploit their recent trends to construct approximate upper and lower bounds as a supplementary tool for future projections. We also seek two modifications of this proposed approach. First, despite that it has remained largely an empirical observation, we intend to examine the use of extreme value theory to provide a more theoretical framework for both the highest and lowest life expectancies. Second, we construct two hypothetical populations with each age experiencing the lowest or highest mortality rate amongst all the populations considered, and extrapolate their life expectancy trends into the future. The resulting life expectancy bounds perform reasonably well in our backtesting exercise and can potentially complement the usual application of a stochastic mortality model to the data of a single country.
KeywordsBest-performance life expectancy Upper and lower bounds Extreme value theory Generalised extreme value distribution Maxima and minima Lee–Carter models
The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their valuable comments and suggestions which greatly enhance the presentation of this paper. The authors also thank Bowen Yang for her research assistance in the initial stage of this project.
- Canudas-Romo, V., Booth, H., & Bergeron-Boucher, M. (2019). Minimum death rates and maximum life expectancy: The role of concordant ages. North American Actuarial Journal, forthcoming.Google Scholar
- Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong (2017). Demographic Trends in Hong Kong 1986–2016. https://www.censtatd.gov.hk.
- Department of Statistics of Singapore (2017). Population Trends 2017. ISSN 1793‐2424. https://www.singstat.gov.sg.
- Human Mortality Database (HMD) (2017). Germany: University of California, Berkeley (USA) and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. www.mortality.org. Accessed 4 Nov 2017.
- Jdanov, D. A., Jasilionis, D., Soroko, E. L., Rau, R., & Vaupel, J. W. (2008). Beyond the Kannisto–Thatcher database on old age mortality: An assessment of data quality at advanced ages. In MPIDR working paper. Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.Google Scholar
- Kannisto–Thatcher Database (KTDB) (2017). Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/databases/ktdb/. Accessed 25 Feb 2018.
- Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.Google Scholar
- United Nations. (2017a). World economic situation and prospects 2017. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar