Reliability Analysis and Prediction on Tunnel Roof under Blasting Disturbance
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The parameters of underground structure have the characteristics of large spatial heterogeneity and strong uncertainty. Recently, people gradually begin to use the idea of probability to analyze the safety of underground structures. However, few articles analyze the dynamic response of structural reliability. In this paper, the reliability of tunnel roof under blasting disturbance is studied, and the influence of the number of disturbances and the distribution of random variables on the structural reliability is analyzed. The prediction model of structural reliability is proposed. The sensitivity of different parameters to the structural reliability is discussed. The results show that the traditional method of evaluating the structural safety status is more dependent on the design value of each parameter. However, the design value does not represent the true state of the structure in a completely accurate way, which will result in a certain deviation between the assessment of the structural safety state and the actual state. Single disturbance has a limited impact on the structural reliability, while repeated disturbances can still have a noticeable effect on the structural reliability. When the disturbance reaches a certain number of times, the reliability of the structure can drop sharply. This paper proposes the prediction function of structure reliability according to the decay of structure reliability after blasting disturbance. Only a small number of parameters are needed to predict the structure reliability at different times. The error between the forecast results and the actual results is about 1%. With the increase of the number of blasting disturbances, the sensitivity coefficient of the structural resistance factor gradually decreases, and the sensitivity coefficient of the loaded effect gradually increases. The control of the blasting strength should be gradually increased to ensure the structural safety. Even if the mean and mean square error of random variables are the same, different distribution forms will have a great impact on the calculation results.
Keywordsreliability analysis reliability prediction blasting disturbance number of blasting sensitivity random variable distribution form
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This work is funded by the national key research and development program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0801607), national science foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51525402, 51374049, 51404067. 51574060 and 51534003), the key project of Chinese ministry of education (No. 113019A), and the fundamental research funds for the central universities of China (Grant Nos. N160103005 and N160104005). These supports are gratefully acknowledged.
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