Preliminary Data Linking American Consumer Perceptions with Unauthorized Migration to the U.S.
- 31 Downloads
Unauthorized migration to the U.S. is frequent, though economic predictors are understudied. This study examined the predictive utility of U.S. economic metrics in relation to unauthorized migration 2000–2016. Findings indicated that economic metrics add significant predictive power to models predicting unauthorized migration up to 4 months later. The most predictive metric was the Consumer Confidence Index, indicating that the perception of U.S. economic health—rather than objective parameterization—is most relevant. To our knowledge, this is the first study to consider the Consumer Confidence Index and examine U.S. economic metrics over the last decade, in relation to unauthorized migration.
KeywordsMigration Economics Southwest Mexico Unauthorized
- Aiken, L. S., & West, S. G. (1991). Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications Inc.Google Scholar
- Bartram, D. (2015). Forced migration and “rejected alternatives”: A conceptual refinement. Journal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies, 13(4), 439–456. https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2015.1030489.
- Bertoli, S., & Fernandez-Huertas Moraga, J. (2012). Visa policies, networks and the cliff at the border. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7094, Bonn, GE.Google Scholar
- Bertoli, S., Brücker, H., & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, J. (2013). The European crisis and migration to Germany: Expectations and the diversion of migration flows. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7170, Bonn, GE.Google Scholar
- Bertoli, S., Brücker, H., & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, J. (2016). The European crisis and migration to Germany. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 6061–6072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.012.
- Bhandari, P. B. (2004). Relative deprivation and migration in an agricultural setting of Nepal. Population and Environment, 25(5), 475–499. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POEN.0000036931.73465.79
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (2016a). Inflation rate. Retrieved from https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E?output_view=pct_12mths
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (2016b). Unemployment rate. Retrieved from https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
- Cutler, N. E. (2013). How everybody’s consumer opinions interact with the gross domestic product: A brief look at the index of consumer sentiment. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 67(4), 19–24.Google Scholar
- Czaika, M., & de Haas, H. (2012). The role of internal and international relative deprivation in global migration, Oxford Development Studies, 40(4), 423–442. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2012.728581
- Department of Homeland Security (2015). Expedited Hiring Plan. Retrieved from: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Customs%20and%20Border%20Protection%20(CBP)%20-%20Expedited%20Hiring%20Plan_0.pdf
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (2017). Mexico/U.S. foreign exchange rate. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS
- Fertig, M. (1999). The economic impact of EU-Enlargement: Assessing the migration potential. IZA Discussion Paper No. 293, University of Heidelberg.Google Scholar
- Hanson, G., & Spilimbergo, A. (1996). Illegal immigration, border enforcement, and relative wages: Evidence from apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. Retrieved from www.nber.org/papers/w5592.
- Karras, G., & Chiswick, C. U. (1999). Macroeconomic determinants of migration: The case of Germany 1964‐1988. International Migration, 37(4), 657–677. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2435.00089
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2016). Consumer Confidence Index. Retrieved from https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
- Paradiso, A., Kumar, S., & Margani, P. (2014). Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach. Journal of Economic Psychology, 4348–4363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2014.04.006.
- Parrado, E. A., & Flippen, C. A. (2016). The Departed: Deportations and out-migration among Latino immigrants in North Carolina after the Great Recession. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 666(1), 131–147. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716216646563
- Quinn, M. A. (2006). Relative deprivation, wage differentials and Mexican migration. Review of Development Economics, 10(1), 135–153. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00306.x
- Ratha, D., & Shaw, W. (2007). South–south migration and remittances. World Bank Development Prospects Group, Working Paper No. 102.Google Scholar
- Rosenblum, M. R. (2012). Alternatives to migration in the United States: Policy issues and economic impact. American Behavioral Scientist, 0002764212441788.Google Scholar
- Rosenblum, M. (2015). Securing the border: Defining the current population living in the shadows and addressing future flows. Retrieved from https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/
- Rosenblum, M. R., & Hipsman, F. (2016). Border metrics: How to effectively measure border security and immigration control. Washington D.C.: Migration Policy Institute.Google Scholar
- S&P Global (2016). S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved from http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500
- Schmidt, C. M., & Fertig, M. (2000). Aggregate-level migration studies as a tool for forecasting future migration streams. IZA Discussion Paper No. 183, Bonn, GE.Google Scholar
- Sjaastad, L. A. (1962). The costs and returns of human migration. Journal of Political Economy, 70(5),80–93.Google Scholar
- U.S. Border Patrol (2016). U.S. border patrol monthly apprehensions (FY 2000-FY 2016). Retrieved from https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2016-Oct/BP%20Total%20Monthly%20Apps%20by%20Sector%20and%20Area%2C%20FY2000-FY2016.pdf
- Villegas, R., & Rietig, V. (2015). Migrants deported from the United States and Mexico to the northern triangle: A statistical and socioeconomic profile. Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from http://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/RMSG-CentAmDeportations.pdf