Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods

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This paper presents the calibration of Omori’s aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters (a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a = -1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of diff erent time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.

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This study is supported and funded by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the project “Risk of Collapse Based Rating of Damaged Low Rise Reinforced Concrete Frame Buildings Subjected to Aftershock Hazard” with Grant No. 213M454. This support is greatly appreciated.

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Correspondence to Ufuk Yazgan.

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Supported by: Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) with Grant No. 213M454

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Muderrisoglu, Z., Yazgan, U. Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Earthq. Eng. Eng. Vib. 19, 149–160 (2020) doi:10.1007/s11803-020-0553-2

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  • aftershock occurrence model
  • aftershock likelihoods
  • rate parameters
  • aftershock hazard