Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration

, Volume 17, Issue 4, pp 787–804 | Cite as

Seismic risk assessment for developing countries: Pakistan as a case study

  • Shaukat A. Khan
  • Kypros Pilakoutas
  • Iman Hajirasouliha
  • Reyes GarciaEmail author
  • Maurizio Guadagnini


Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.


recycled concrete frame-shear wall concealed bracings shaking table test nonlinear time-history response analysis 


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Copyright information

© Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Shaukat A. Khan
    • 1
  • Kypros Pilakoutas
    • 2
  • Iman Hajirasouliha
    • 2
  • Reyes Garcia
    • 2
    Email author
  • Maurizio Guadagnini
    • 2
  1. 1.Dept. of Civil EngineeringAbasyn UniversityPeshawarPakistan
  2. 2.Dept. of Civil and Structural EngineeringThe University of SheffieldSheffieldUK

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