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Chinese Journal of Integrative Medicine

, Volume 25, Issue 12, pp 911–916 | Cite as

Correlation Analysis of Rubella Incidence and Meteorological Variables Based on Chinese Medicine Theory of Yunqi

  • Xuan Zhang
  • Shi-lei Ma
  • Zhong-di Liu
  • Juan HeEmail author
Original Article

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the correlations between the incidence of rubella and meteorological factors over the same period and previous periods including 1, 2, 3 and 4 year ago (defined according to Chinese medicine Yunqi theory of "pestilence occurring after 3 years") and establish the rubella-meteorological forecast models for Beijing area, China.

Methods

Data regarding the incidence of rubella between 1990 and 2004 from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the meteorological variables including daily average temperatures, daily average wind speeds, average precipitations, average relative humidity, average vapor pressures and average low cloud covers between 1986 and 2004 were collected from the Beijing Meteorological Observatory. Descriptive statistics and back-propagation artificial neural network for forecast model’s establishment were adopted for data analysis.

Results

The average temperature and relative humidity have a great contribution (100%) to the rubella morbidity. But the combination of other meteorological factors contributed to improve the accuracy of rubella-meteorological forecast models. The forecast accuracy could be improved by 76% through utilizing a combination of meteorological variables spanning from 3 years ago to the present rather than utilizing data from a single year or dating back to more earlier time than 3 years.

Conclusions

There is a close relationship between the incidence of rubella and meteorological variables in current year and previous 3 years. This finding suggests that rubella prediction would benefit from consideration to previous climate changes.

Keywords

rubella meteorological factors Chinese medicine Yunqi theory pestilence occurring after 3 years 

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Notes

Acknowledgement

We would like to thank the Beijing Meteorological Observatory for collecting the meteorological data and the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention for the data related to the incidence of rubella.

Author Contributions

Zhang X analyzed the data and wrote the manuscript. Ma SL revised the manuscript. Liu ZD collected and checked the data. He J conceived and designed the experiments. All authors have read and approved the contents of the final version.

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Copyright information

© The Chinese Journal of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Chinese Medicine Clinical Study Centre, School of Chinese MedicineHong Kong Baptist UniversityKowloon Tong, Hong Kong SARChina
  2. 2.School of Traditional Chinese MedicineBeijing University of Chinese MedicineBeijingChina

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