The evolution of the spatial-temporal patterns of global energy security since the 1990s
In this study, we developed an energy security evaluation model (ESEM) from three dimensions, energy supply-transport security, safety of energy utilization, and stability of political-socioeconomic environment, based on the integrated application of subjective and objective weight allocation technique. Then the spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security pattern and its driving mechanism was analyzed with the method above, and the results are shown as follows: (1) since the 1990s, the spatial patterns of global energy security have shown a deteriorating trend, with the growth of countries in at-risk type and relatively at-risk type. (2) The spatial distribution of countries with secure energy system shows a strong stability, and these countries are concentrated persistently in Western Europe and North America. The spatial evolution of countries with relatively secure energy system also presents a strong stability, which are mainly distributed in the periphery of the secure ones, namely Central and Southern Europe, South America and Eurasia, while countries with general energy system are mainly distributed in Asia, Africa and Southern Europe, and the spatial-temporal evolution of this type is the main cause for the deterioration of world energy security pattern. Countries with at-risk and relatively at-risk energy system are mainly concentrated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Eurasia, rendering spatial extension to the east and south. (3) In the past 20 years, the mechanism for world’s energy security pattern formation gradually transforms from the ‘unitary dimension dominated’ to the ‘binary dimension-dominated’, and the main factors influencing the global energy security pattern become more diverse. (4) In the pattern of world’s energy security, China’s performance on energy security has been the global average since the 1990s, which shows a decreasing trend in safety of energy utilization dimension. Findings in this study can provide a reference for the government in terms of formulating strategic responses and policy options.
Keywordsenergy security spatial-temporal evolution subjective-objective weight allocation method the globe
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), 2007. A quest for energy decurity in the 21st century [R/OL], http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2010/9/26/APL,RC_2007_A_Quest_for_energy_security.
- Brown M A, Dworkin M, 2011. The environmental dimension of energy security. In: Sovacool B (ed.). The Routledge Handbook of Energy Security. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
- Ghao C F, Liu G Y, Chen B, 2015. Advances in theories and methods of enemy forecasting and early warning. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 35(7): 2399–2413. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- International Energy Agency (IEA), 1985. Energy Technology Policy. Paris: OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
- Liu L, Shen L, Gao T et al., 2012a. Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of energy security in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 67(12): 1634–1644. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Liu L, Shen L, Liu X, 2012b. Theories, methods and progress of energy security research. Progress in Geography, 31(4): 403–411. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- McFalls M S, 1997. The role and assessment of classical market power in joint venture analysis. Antitrust Law Journal, 66: 651–735.Google Scholar
- Müller-Kraenner S, 2008. Energy Security: Re-measuring the World. London: Earthscan Publications.Google Scholar
- The World Bank. World Bank Open Data (WBOD). http://data.worldbank.org [accessed 15.04.2017].
- The World Bank. World Development Indicators (WDI). http://data.worldbank.org.cn/data-catalog/world-development-indicators, accessed 2017-04-20.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). International Energy Statistics. http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm, accessed 2017-04-10.
- Wang H Y, 2013. Changes in world energy pattern and their influence on China’s energy security. Journal of Shanghai University (Social Sciences), 30(6): 1–11. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Wang Q, Zheng Y, Wu S D et al., 2011. Mechanism of energy efficiency response to industrial restructuring and energy consumption structure change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 66(6): 741–749. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- World Energy Council (WEC), 2013. Energy Sustainability Index [Data File]. http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/2013-Energy-Sustainability-Index-VOL-2, accessed 2017-08-20.
- Yang Y, Liu Y, Jin F J, 2013. Distribution of world oil refining capacity and its evolution based on different regional scales. Word Regional Studies, 22(3): 1–9. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Yang Y, Liu Y, 2013. Progress and prospect of world energy geography in China. Progress in Geography, 32(5): 818–830. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Yergin D, 2005. Energy security and markets. In: Kalicki J H, Goldwyn D L (eds.). Energy and Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy. Washington: Woodrow Wilson Press.Google Scholar
- Yu J, Wang X Q, Zhang L, 2014. 2AST Conceptual framework and integrated evaluation of energy security. Journal of China University of Geosciences (Social Sciences Edition), 14(3): 70–77. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Zhang L, 2004. Mineral Resources Exploitation and National Industrialization. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
- Zhang Y Y, Guan Q Y, 2007. World energy patterns and energy security of China. World Economy, (9): 17–30.Google Scholar