Advertisement

Ensemble streamflow projections for a small watershed with HSPF model

  • Mine Albek
  • Erdem Ahmet Albek
  • Serdar Göncü
  • Burcu Şimşek UygunEmail author
Research Article

Abstract

A watershed modeling tool, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was utilized to model the hydrological processes in the agricultural Sarısu watershed in western Turkey. The meteorological input data were statistically downscaled time series from General Circulation Model simulations. The input data were constructed as an ensemble of 400 individual time series of temperature, precipitation, dewpoint temperature, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, cloudiness, and wind velocity, as required by HSPF. The ensemble was divided into four subsets, each comprising of 100 time series, of different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Yearly and monthly total streamflow time series were obtained from the calibrated and validated HSPF model spanning a period of 116 years between the water years of 1984 and 2099. The projections in the watershed showed a median increase of 3 °C in yearly average temperatures between the beginning and end 30-year periods of the 116-year simulation periods based on 400 ensemble members while the corresponding change in total yearly precipitation was − 71 mm. These changes led to a decrease in yearly streamflows by 40% which reflected itself to varying degrees in monthly flows. Correlations were established between the principal drivers of the watershed hydrological cycle, namely temperature and precipitation, and streamflow. The results showed that the changes in the climatic conditions will greatly affect water-related issues in the watershed and emphasize the necessity of preparing carefully to adapt to a warmer and drier climate.

Keywords

Climate change Statistical downscaling Watershed HSPF Streamflow Hydrological modeling Correlation Nonparametric analysis 

Notes

Funding information

This study has been funded by TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) under project no. 108Y091

References

  1. Abdulla F, Eshtawi T, Assaf H (2009) Assessment of the impact of potential climate change on the water balance of a semi-arid watershed. Water Resour Manag 23:2051–2068CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Al-Abed N, Al-Sharif M (2008) Hydrological modeling of Zarqa River Basin - Jordan using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Water Resour Manag 22:1203–1220CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Albek E (2003) Estimation of point and diffuse contaminant loads to streams by non-parametric regression analysis of monitoring data. Water Air Soil Pollut 147:229-243 doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1024592815576 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Albek M, Albek E (2003) Use of HSPF in estimating future influences of climate change on watersheds. WIT Trans Ecol Environ 60:55–65.  https://doi.org/10.2495/RM030061 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Albek M, Ogutveren UB, Albek E (2004) Hydrological modeling of Seydi Suyu watershed (Turkey) with HSPF. J Hydrol 285:260–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Baloch MA, Ames DP, Tanik A (2015) Hydrologic impacts of climate and land-use change on Namnam Stream in Koycegiz Watershed, Turkey. Int J Environ Sci Te 12:1481–1494CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bicknell BR, Imhoff JC, Kittle JL Jr, Jobes TH, Donigian AS Jr (2001) Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF). User’s Manual for Release 12. In: U.S. EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory, Athens, GA, in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, Reston, VAGoogle Scholar
  8. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (2012) University of Victoria. http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/data/cgcm3/cgcm3.shtml. Accessed 2008
  9. Choi W, Deal BM (2008) Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA). J Environ Manage 88:1119–1130CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chung ES, Park K, Lee KS (2011) The relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on the hydrological response of a Korean urban watershed. Hydrol Process 25:544–560CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Climate Impacts LINK Project (2012) NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre. http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_linkdata. Accessed 2008
  12. Crawford NH (1999) Hydrologic Journal - Snowmelt Calibration. Hydrocomp, Inc. www.hydrocomp.com. 2010
  13. Donigian ASJ, Davis HHJ (1978) User’s Manual for Agricultural Runoff Management (ARM) Model. In., vol EPA- 600/3-78-080.Google Scholar
  14. Duda PB, Hummel PR, Donigian ASJ, Imhoff JC (2012) BASINS/HSPF:Model Use, Calibration and Validation. Transactions of the ASABE 55:1523-1547 doi:10.13031/2013.42261CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. ECMWF ERA-40 data (2012) ECMWF Data Server. http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/era-40. Accessed 2008
  16. Esterby SR (1996) Review of methods for the detection and estimation of trends with emphasis on water quality applications. Hydrol Process 10:127–149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Goncu S, Albek E (2007) Modeling the effects of climate change on different land uses. Water Sci Technol 56:131-138 doi.  https://doi.org/10.2166/Wst.2007.444 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Goncu S, Albek E (2008) Modeling climate change impacts on suspended and dissolved water quality constituents in watersheds. Fresenius Environ Bull 17:1501–1510Google Scholar
  19. Goncu S, Albek E (2010) Modeling climate change effects on streams and reservoirs with HSPF. Water Resour Manag 24:707–726.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9466-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Göncü S, Albek E (2015) Statistical downscaling of meteorological time series and climatic projections in a watershed in Turkey. Theoretical Appl Climatol:1–21.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1563-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. He MX, Hogue TS (2012) Integrating hydrologic modeling and land use projections for evaluation of hydrologic response and regional water supply impacts in semi-arid environments. Environ Earth Sci 65:1671–1685CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. He ZL, Wang Z, Suen CJ, Ma XY (2013) Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios. Hydrol Res 44:723–736CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Helsel DR (1987) Advantages of nonparametric procedures for analysis of water-quality data. Hydrol Sci J 32:179-190 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668709491176 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Helsel DR, Frans LM (2006) Regional Kendall test for trend. Environ Sci Technol 40:4066–4073.  https://doi.org/10.1021/es051650b CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1993) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier ScienceGoogle Scholar
  26. Hessami M, Gachon P, Ouarda TBMJ, St-Hilaire A (2008) Automated regression-based statistical downscaling tool. Environ Model Softw 23:813–834.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.10.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Cambridge University Press. United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge, p 996Google Scholar
  28. Jun KS, Chung ES, Sung JY, Lee KS (2011) Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts. Sci Total Environ 409:5228–5242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project B. Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:Tnyrp>2.0.Co;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kim Y, Chung ES (2014) An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate. Sci Total Environ 473:88–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kistler R et al (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. B Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–267.  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:Tnnyrm>2.3.Co;2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Köksal ES, Güngör Y, Yildirim YE (2011) Spectral reflectance characteristics of sugar beet under different levels of irrigation water and relationships between growth parameters and spectral indexes. Irrig Drain 60:187–195.  https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.558 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Linsley RK (1992) Water Resources Engineering. McGraw-HillGoogle Scholar
  34. Linsley RK, Kohler MA, Paulhus JLH (1982) Hydrology for Engineers. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  35. Lopez SR, Hogue TS, Stein ED (2013) A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 17:3077–3094CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lumb AM, McCammon RB, Kittle JL Jr (1994) Users manual for an expert system (HSPexp) for calibration of the Hydrologic Simulation Program--Fortran. In: vol 94-4168. U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report, p 102Google Scholar
  37. Mitsova D (2014) Coupling Land Use Change Modeling with Climate Projections to Estimate Seasonal Variability in Runoff from an Urbanizing Catchment Near Cincinnati. Ohio Isprs Int Geo-Inf 3:1256–1277CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Monitoring Stations Management System (2010) General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. http://rasatlar.dsi.gov.tr/. Accessed 2010
  39. Mukundan R et al (2013) Suspended sediment source areas and future climate impact on soil erosion and sediment yield in a New York City water supply watershed, USA. Geomorphology 183:110–119.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.06.021 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Ng HYF, Marsalek J (1992) Sensitivity of streamflow simulation to changes in climatic inputs. Hydrol Res 23:257–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. NRC (2010) Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The National Academies PressGoogle Scholar
  42. Ranatunga T, Tong STY, Sun Y, Yang YJ (2014) A total water management analysis of the Las Vegas Wash watershed. Nevada Phys Geogr 35:220–244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Rinaldi M (2001) Application of EPIC model for irrigation scheduling of sunflower in Southern Italy. Agric Water Manag 49:185–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Rosenberg EA, Keys PW, Booth DB, Hartley D, Burkey J, Steinemann AC, Lettenmaier DP (2010) Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Climatic Change 102:319–349CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Taner MU, Carleton JN, Wellman M (2011) Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake. Ecol Model 222:3380–3393CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Te Chow V, Maidment DR, Mays LW (1988) Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  47. TUMAS Meteorological Data Archive and Management System. (2010) Turkish State Meteorological Service. http://tumas.mgm.gov.tr/wps/portal/. Accessed 2010
  48. USEPA (2000) BASINS technical note 6 estimating hydrology and hydraulic parameters for HSPF. In., vol EPA-823-R00-012. US EPA Office of Water, United States, p 34Google Scholar
  49. USEPA (2015) BASINS 4.1 (Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources) Modeling Framework. National Exposure Research Laboratory, RTP, North CarolinaGoogle Scholar
  50. Wetcher-Hendricks D (2014) Analyzing quantitative data: an introduction for social researchers (1). Wiley, Somerset, USGoogle Scholar
  51. Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2007) Statistical Downscaling Model SDSM User Manual, Version 4.2. In. Loughborough University,Google Scholar
  52. Wilby RL, Dawson CW, Barrow EM (2002) SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environ Model Softw 17:147–159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Yan CA, Zhang WC, Zhang ZJ (2014) Hydrological modeling of the Jiaoyi watershed (China) using HSPF model. Sci World JGoogle Scholar
  54. Yang JS, Chung ES, Kim SU, Kim TW (2012) Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 16:801–814CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Engineering, Environmental Engineering DepartmentEskişehir Technical UniversityEskişehirTurkey

Personalised recommendations