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Environmental Science and Pollution Research

, Volume 26, Issue 18, pp 18876–18885 | Cite as

Effect and threshold of PM2.5 on population mortality in a highly polluted area: a study on applicability of standards

  • Runze Ye
  • Liangliang Cui
  • Xiumiao Peng
  • Kunkun Yu
  • Fang Cheng
  • Yakun Zhu
  • Chongqi JiaEmail author
Research Article
  • 70 Downloads

Abstract

For assessing the effect and threshold of PM2.5 on mortality in highly polluted areas and further studying the standard applicability, daily data on meteorological factors, air pollutants, and mortality were obtained in Jinan, China, from 2011 to 2017. A generalized additive model (GAM) and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were employed to assess the nonlinearity and the hysteresis of associations. We further explored the breakpoints to evaluate the existence of the threshold. The correlation between mortality and PM2.5 was nonlinear. The impact of average PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality (RR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.16), cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (RR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.24), and respiratory disease (RD) mortality (RR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.24) reached the highest in the current day (lag 0). The excess risks of PM2.5 at secondary standard level to non-accidental, CVD, and RD mortality are 8.79% (95% CI = 3.84, 13.98), 14.41% (95% CI = 7.79, 21.43), 15.35% (95% CI = 1.76, 30.74), respectively. The saturation points exist in highly polluted areas. Above the saturation points of 247 μg/m3 for non-accidental mortality, 245 μg/m3 for CVD mortality, and 250 μg/m3 for RD mortality, the model of all three relationships presented a harvesting effect. This study underscores the necessity of the ongoing efforts of reducing particulate air pollution and the adjustment of the standards in seriously polluted areas to adapt to regional conditions. At the same time, for highly polluted areas, it is advocated to strengthen personal protection to decrease the saturation point and control the concentration of pollutants as much as possible, which will substantially save more cost that benefits the public.

Keywords

Particulate matter Public health Cardiovascular diseases Respiratory tract diseases 

Abbreviations

CVD

Cardiovascular disease

RD

Respiratory disease

AQI

Air Quality Index

API

Air Pollution Index

GAM

Generalized additive model

DLNM

Distributed Lag Non-linear Model

PM

Particulate matter

TSP

Total suspended particulate

ICD-10

International Classification Diseases 10th Version

Tmean

Daily average temperature

Tmax

Daily maximum temperature

Tmin

Daily minimum temperature

RH

Relative humidity

Notes

Funding information

This work was funded by grants from the Medicine and Technology Development Plan Project of Shandong Province (2015WS0435).

Supplementary material

11356_2019_4999_MOESM1_ESM.docx (15 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 14 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Runze Ye
    • 1
  • Liangliang Cui
    • 2
  • Xiumiao Peng
    • 2
  • Kunkun Yu
    • 2
  • Fang Cheng
    • 1
  • Yakun Zhu
    • 1
  • Chongqi Jia
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public HealthShandong UniversityJinanPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Department of Environmental HealthJinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and PreventionJinanPeople’s Republic of China

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