Advertisement

Decoupling and decomposition analysis of transportation carbon emissions at the provincial level in China: perspective from the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan periods

  • Caiquan BaiEmail author
  • Yibing Chen
  • Xing Yi
  • Chen Feng
Research Article
  • 69 Downloads

Abstract

Based on the Tapio decoupling model, this paper calculates the decoupling indexes of the transportation output and the transportation carbon emissions of China’s 30 provinces and municipalities from 2006 to 2015. The research period (2006–2015) is divided into the 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP) (2006–2010) and the 12th FYP period (2011–2015). On this basis, we conduct a comparative analysis to describe the spatial-temporal evolution of the decoupling states of transportation output and transportation carbon emissions. Furthermore, in order to deeply analyze the reasons for the evolution of the decoupling states during the 12th FYP period compared with the 11th FYP period, the LMDI decomposition method is used to decompose and compare the factors affecting the transportation carbon emissions in the two periods. The results show the following: (1) from the national point of view, the decoupling relationship between transportation output and transportation carbon emissions improved gradually, with small fluctuations from 2006 to 2015; (2) from the provincial point of view, their decoupling states mainly were expansive negative decoupling and weak decoupling, and the spatial evolution of the two decoupling states is significantly different; (3) the reductions in the transportation energy intensity and transportation intensity were the main factors inhibiting the increase of transportation carbon emissions in the 11th and 12th FYP periods, respectively. The growth of per-capita wealth was the decisive factor driving the increase in transportation carbon emissions in the two periods; (4) in contrast to the causes of decreases in the carbon emission variations in the 11th FYP period, in the 12th FYP period, the significant reduction in transportation intensity is the main reason causing the significant decrease of carbon emission variations. However, the transportation energy intensity and the transportation intensity fail to reduce simultaneously in the two periods.

Keywords

Transportation carbon emissions Transportation output Decoupling Driving factor LMDI Spatial-temporal evolution 

Notes

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41771184).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

References

  1. Ang BW (2004) Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: which is the preferred method? Energy Policy 32:1131–1139.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00076-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ang BW (2005) The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide. Energy Policy 33:867–871.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bakirtas I, Cetin MA (2017) Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses: MIKTA sample. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24:18273–18283.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9462-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Churchill SA, Inekwe J, Ivanovski K, Smyth R (2018) The Environmental Kuznets Curve in the OECD: 1870-2014. Energy Econ 75:389–399.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.09.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Dong JF, Huang JY, Wu RW, Deng C (2017) Delinking indicators on transport output and carbon emissions in Xinjiang, China. Pol J Environ Stud 26:1045–1056.  https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/67553 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Fan FY, Lei YL (2016) Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Beijing. Transp Res D 42:135–145.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.11.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Fan G, Wang XL, Ma GR (2011) Contribution of marketization to China’s economic growth. Econ Res J 9:4–16 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  8. He KB, Huo H, Zhang Q, He DQ, An F, Wang M, Walsh MP (2005) Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China’s road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications. Energy Policy 33:1499–1507.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.01.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Jiang JJ, Ye B, Xie DJ, Tang J (2017) Provincial-level carbon emission drivers and emission reduction strategies in China: combining multi-layer LMDI decomposition with hierarchical clustering. J Clean Prod 169:178–190.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.189 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Li HQ, Lu Y, Zhang J, Wang TY (2013) Trends in road freight transportation carbon dioxide emissions and policies in China. Energy Policy 57:99–106.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.070 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Lin BQ, Benjamin NI (2017) Influencing factors on carbon emissions in China transport industry. A new evidence from quantile regression analysis. J Clean Prod 150:175–187.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.02.171 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Lu SR, Jiang HY, Liu Y (2017a) Regional disparities and influencing factors of CO2 emission in transportation industry. J Transp Syst Eng Inf Technol 17:32–39.  https://doi.org/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2017.01.006 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  13. Lu SR, Jiang HY, Liu Y, Huang S (2017b) Regional disparities and influencing factors of average CO2 emissions from transportation industry in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Transp Res D 57:112–123.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Luo XH, Caron J, Karplus VJ, Zhang D, Zhang XL (2016) Interprovincial migration and the stringency of energy policy in China. Energy Econ 58:164–173.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Luo X, Dong L, Dou Y, Li Y, Liu K, Ren JZ, Liang HW, Mai XM (2017) Factor decomposition analysis and causal mechanism investigation on urban transport CO2 emissions: comparative study on Shanghai and Tokyo. Energy Policy 107:658–668.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.049 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2002) Indicators to measure decoupling of environmental pressure from economic growth. OECD Report, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, ParisGoogle Scholar
  17. Ru H (2018) Government credit, a double-edged sword: evidence from the China Development Bank. J Financ 73:275–316.  https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12585 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Sarkodie SA, Strezov V (2019) A review on Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis using bibliometric and meta-analysis. Sci Total Environ 649:128–145.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.276 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Song JN, Wu QQ, Yuan CW, Zhang S, Bao X, Du K (2017) Spatial-temporal characteristics of China transport carbon emissions based on geostatistical analysis. Clim Chang Res 13:502–511.  https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.234 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  20. Tan ZF, Li L, Wang JJ, Wang JH (2011) Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method. Appl Energy 88:4496–4504.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.042 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Tapio P (2005) Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transp Policy 12:137–151.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Wang WW, Zhang M, Zhou M (2011) Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China. Energy 36:5909–5915.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.08.031 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Wang Q, Hang Y, Zhou P, Wang Y (2016) Decoupling and attribution analysis of industrial carbon emissions in Taiwan. Energy 113:728–738Google Scholar
  24. Wang YH, Xie TY, Yang SL (2017) Carbon emission and its decoupling research of transportation in Jiangsu Province. J Clean Prod 142:907–914.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.052 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wang B, Sun YF, Chen QX, Wang ZH (2018) Determinants analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in passenger and freight transportation sectors in China. Struct Change Econ Dyn 47:127–132.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.08.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Xie S-H, Cai H-Y, Xia G-X (2016) Calculation of the carbon emissions of Chinese transportation industry and the driving factors. J Arid Land Resour Environ 30:13–18.  https://doi.org/10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2016.140 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  27. Xu B, Lin BQ (2015) Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China’s transport sector: a dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach. Energy 83:486–495.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.052 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Yang C-J, Yang W-K, Li N (2018) Study on difference decomposition and spatial convergence of regional openness in China. R&D Manag 30(1):115–125 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  29. Yu J, Da Y-B, Ouyang B (2015) Analysis of carbon emission changes in China’s transportation industry based on LMDI decomposition method. Chin J Highw Transport 28:112–119 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  30. Zhang ZX (2000) Decoupling China’s carbon emissions increase from economic growth: an economic analysis and policy implications. World Dev 28:739–752.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(99)00154-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Zhang CG, Nian J (2013) Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: a regional analysis in China. Energy Policy 63:918–926.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.142 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Zhang N, Zhou P, Kung CC (2015) Total-factor carbon emission performance of the Chinese transportation industry: a bootstrapped non-radial Malmquist index analysis. Renew Sust Energ Rev 41:584–593.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.076 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Zhang RS, Matsushima K, Kobayashi K (2018) Can land use planning help mitigate transport-related carbon emissions? A case of Changzhou. Land Use Policy 74:32–40.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.04.025 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Zhao YL, Kuang YQ, Huang NS (2016) Decomposition analysis in decoupling transport output from carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, China. Energies 9:295.  https://doi.org/10.3390/en9040295 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Zhu XP, Li RR (2017) An analysis of decoupling and influencing factors of carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, China. Sustainability 9:722.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050722 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.The Center for Economic ResearchShandong UniversityJinanChina
  2. 2.School of EconomicsNankai UniversityTianjinChina
  3. 3.School of Public Economics and AdministrationShanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghaiChina

Personalised recommendations