Advertisement

Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

  • Farhana GulEmail author
  • Dawood Jan
  • Muhammad Ashfaq
Research Article
  • 50 Downloads

Abstract

This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Keywords

TOA-MD Assessment Climate change Poverty Per capita 

Notes

References

  1. Afzaal M, Haroon MA, Zaman Q (2009) Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in the area-weighted annual mean temperature of Pakistan. Pak J Meteorol 6(11):13–19Google Scholar
  2. Ahmad M, Siftain H, Iqbal M (2015) Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Pakistan: A district level analysis. Climate change working paper no. 1. PIDE conferenceGoogle Scholar
  3. Ali Naqvi SA, Ashfaq M, Ali Adil S, Ahmed A (2017). Current agricultural production system of punjab is vulnerable to climate change. J Agric Res 55(1):125–135Google Scholar
  4. Antle JM, Valdivia RO (2006) Modelling the supply of ecosystem services from agriculture: a minimum-data approach. Aust J Agric Resour Econ 50(2):1–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Antle JM, Valdivia R (2011) Methods for Assessing Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of aquaculture technologies: adoption of integrated agriculture-aquaculture in Malawi. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, CorvallisGoogle Scholar
  6. Baig I, Ashfaq A, Naqvi SAA, Ahmed A, Hoogenboom G, Antle J, Valdivia RO (2014) Ex ante impact assessment of wheat crop in Punjab, Pakistan. J Appl Environ Biol Sci 4(75):358–363Google Scholar
  7. Chaudhry QZ, Mahmood A, Rasul G, Afzaal M (2009) Climate change indicators of Pakistan. - Technical Report No. PMD-22/2009, 1–43Google Scholar
  8. Claessens L, Stoorvogel JJ, Antle JM (2008) Ex ante assessment of dual-purpose sweet potato in the crop-livestock system of western Kenya: a minimum-data approach. Agric Syst 99(1):13–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. CRED (2011) Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. www.cred.be
  10. Fahad S, Hussain S, Saud S, Hassan S, Chauhan BS, Khan F, Ihsan MZ, Ullah A, Wu C, Bajwa AA, Alharby H, Amanullah, Nasim W, Shahzad B, Tanveer M, Huang J (2016a) Responses of rapid viscoanalyzer profile and other rice grain qualities to exogenously applied plant growth regulators under high day and high night temperatures. PLoS One 11(7):e0159590.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159590 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fahad S, Hussain S, Saud S, Khan F, Hassan S, Jr A, Nasim W, Arif M, Wang F, Huang J (2016b) Exogenously applied plant growth regulators affect heat-stressed rice pollens. J Agron Crop Sci 202:139–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fahad S, Hussain S, Saud S, Hassan S, Ihsan Z, Shah AN, Wu C, Yousaf M, Nasim W, Alharby H, Alghabari F, Huang J (2016c) Exogenously applied plant growth regulators enhance the morphophysiological growth and yield of rice under high temperature. Front Plant Sci 7:1250.  https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.01250 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fahad S, Hussain S, Saud S, Hassan S, Tanveer M, Ihsan MZ, Shah AN, Ullah A, Nasrullah KF, Ullah S, AlharbyH NW, Wu C, Huang J (2016d) A combined application of biochar and phosphorus alleviates heat-induced adversities on physiological, agronomical andquality attributes of rice. Plant Physiol Biochem 103:191–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. FAO (2012) Stastical year book. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, RomeGoogle Scholar
  15. Govt of Pakistan (2010) Pakistan Economic Survey. Finance Division, Govt. of Pakistan, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  16. Govt of Pakistan (2011) Pakistan Economic Survey. Finance Division, Govt. of Pakistan, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  17. Govt of Pakistan (2013) Pakistan Economic Survey. Finance Division, Govt. of Pakistan, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  18. Govt of Pakistan (2016) Pakistan Economic Survey. Finance Division, Govt. of Pakistan, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  19. Graciela OM, Travasso MI, Rodriguez GR, Solman S, Nunez M (2003) Climate change and wheat production in Argentina. Intl J Global Warming 1(1–3):214–226Google Scholar
  20. Iqbal N, Bakhsh K, Maqbool A, Ahmad AS (2005) Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan. J Agric Soc Sci 2(1):120–122Google Scholar
  21. Lead P (2009) Changing climate: exploring adaptation strategies for Pakistan. Second National Training Session—Cohort 13, LEAD House, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  22. Lead P (2015) Changing climate: exploring adaptation strategies for Pakistan. Second National Training Session—Cohort 13, LEAD House, IslamabadGoogle Scholar
  23. MoE (2009) Climate change vulnerabilities in agriculture in Pakistan. Ministry of environment, Government of Pakistan, Annual Report. 1–6Google Scholar
  24. Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S, Calvo E, Carter T, Edmonds J, Elgizouli I, Emori S, Erda L, Hibbard K, Jones R, Kainuma M, Kelleher J, Lamarque JF, Manning M, Matthews B, Meehl J, Meyer L, Mitchell J, Nakicenovic N, O’Neill B, Pichs R, Riahi K, Rose S, Runci P, Stouffer R, van Vuuren D, Weyant J, Wilbanks T, van Ypersele P, Zurek M (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. Technical Summary. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva 25 pp. ISBN: 978-92-9169-124-1Google Scholar
  25. Oxfam International (2011) Pakistan floods emergency: lessons from a continuing crisis. Oxfam, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  26. Rehman A, Ashfaq M, Naqvi SAA, Ali S, Adil BK, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ali A, Imran A (2015) Is climate change worsening the poverty of maize growers? Evidence from Punjab province, Pakistan. Ciencia e Tecnia Vitivinicola 30(1):105–116Google Scholar
  27. Stefanski R, Sivakumar MVK (2011) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  28. Wajid AK, Hussain M, Maqsood A, Ahmad HA (2007) Influence of drought on water use efficiency in wheat in semi-arid regions of Punjab. Soil Environ 26(1):64–68Google Scholar
  29. You L, Rosegrant MW, Fang C, Wood S (2005) Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity. EPT discussion paper 143. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.Google Scholar
  30. Zhu B (2004) Climate change affecting crops. An article published in Chinese newspaper China daily, May 24, 2004, Beijing, ChinaGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Agricultural and Applied EconomicsUniversity of Agriculture PeshawarPeshawarPakistan
  2. 2.Institute of Agriculture and Resource EconomicsUniversity of AgricultureFaisalabadPakistan

Personalised recommendations