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Environmental Science and Pollution Research

, Volume 26, Issue 4, pp 3184–3195 | Cite as

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model

  • Andrés NavarroEmail author
  • Raúl Moreno
  • Alfonso Jiménez-Alcázar
  • Francisco J. Tapiador
Contaminated sites, waste management and green chemistry: New challenges from monitoring to remediation

Abstract

Precise modeling of CO2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Keywords

Pollution research Climate modeling System dynamics Anthropogenic emissions Climate change Population 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Funding information

Funding from projects CGL2013-48367-P, CGL2016-80609-R (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Ciencia e Innovacion), and CYTEMA (UCLM) is gratefully acknowledged. ANM acknowledges support from grant FPU 13/02798.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Andrés Navarro
    • 1
    Email author
  • Raúl Moreno
    • 1
  • Alfonso Jiménez-Alcázar
    • 1
  • Francisco J. Tapiador
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Environmental Sciences (ICAM)University of Castilla-La ManchaToledoSpain

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