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Spatial Scale Resolution of Prognostic Hydrological Models: Simulation Performance and Application in Climate Change Impact Assessment

  • Mohsen Nasseri
  • Banafsheh Zahraie
  • Ardalan Tootchi
Article

Abstract

In this paper, long-term hydrological response of a watershed to climate change was investigated taking into account the spatial scale effect on the performance of hydrological models. A water balance model was used in which variations of soil moisture, snow budget, deep infiltration and interactions with groundwater resources were modeled. Four various combinations of sub-catchment delineation, altitudinal discretization and division into square-shaped grids were tested for semi-distributed water balance modeling of a basin located in southwest of Iran, namely Roodzard Basin, with arid and semiarid climate based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The results showed improvement in the model performances when spatial variations of the meteorological data and topographic characteristics of the basin were incorporated in the modeling process. The effects of spatial scale resolution dependency were evaluated in projecting streamflow for various climate change scenarios. The results showed that finer resolution of grid cells in the semi-distributed model does not necessarily result in more accurate estimation of monthly streamflows and altitudinal discretization provides almost same accuracy as the results of grid-based models. Moreover, probability distribution of projections obtained from water balance models for A2 and B2 of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios presented less coefficient of variation and skewness compared with historical observations.

Keywords

Hydro-climatic processes Water balance model Climate change Spatial scale 

Notes

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of Interest

None.

Supplementary material

11269_2018_2096_MOESM1_ESM.docx (60 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 60 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mohsen Nasseri
    • 1
  • Banafsheh Zahraie
    • 2
  • Ardalan Tootchi
    • 3
  1. 1.School of Civil Engineering, College of EngineeringUniversity of TehranTehranIran
  2. 2.School of Civil Engineering, Center of Excellence in Infrastructure Engineering and Management, College of EngineeringUniversity of TehranTehranIran
  3. 3.UMR 7619 METIS, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, CNRS, EPHEParisFrance

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