Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

(comments on “Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging” by Richard Bradley)
  • A. Philip DawidEmail author
  • Julia Mortera


Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.


Expert testimony Linear opinion pool 



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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Statistical LaboratoryUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
  2. 2.Università Roma TreRomeItaly

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