Territorial Determinants of the Brexit Vote
- 38 Downloads
This study analyzes the results of the UK’s 2016 referendum—Brexit—by means of territorial data regarding votes and characteristics of the British Local Government Districts. The main variable that the present paper intends to explain is the share of votes for Leave in each LGD. The explanatory variables are represented by a set of political, demographic and socio-economic variables. The purpose is that of checking the impact on the referendum outcome of aspects belonging to various domains: in particular, political partisanship, the economic setting, the occupations, the educational level, and foreign immigration. Since the main dependent variable was the share of votes for Leave, i.e. a fractional response variable assuming continuous values but within the 0, 1 range, the statistical analysis has used a fractional logit regression model. The results show that the impact of political partisanship was significant, provided there was no internal split, and that Leave was territorially associated with working class occupations and intermediate educational levels, but neither with the presence of those in the most unfavourable socio-economic conditions, nor with the size of the immigrant population.
KeywordsReferendum Political partisanship Socio-economic status Immigration Fractional logit regression
- Arnorsson, A., & Zoega, G. (2016). On the causes of Brexit. Munich: Center for Economic Studies & lfo Institute, Working Paper, No. 6056.Google Scholar
- Ehin, P. (2001). Determinants of public support for EU membership: Data from the Baltic countries. European Journal of Political Research, 40(1), 31–56.Google Scholar
- ESS. (2016). European Social Survey round 8 data (2016). Data file edition 1.0. Bergen: NSD - Norwegian Centre for Research Data.Google Scholar
- European Commission. (2016). Public opinion in the European Union. Standard Eurobarometer 85, 2. http://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2130_85_2_STD85_ENG/resource/d9e25afa-d4a3-4877-a102-82f755da2332. Accessed Apr 2018.
- Franklin, M. (2001). The dynamics of electoral participation. In L. Leduc, R. Niemi, & P. Norris (Eds.), Comparing democracies 2: Elections and voting in global perspective (pp. 148–168). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
- Hakhverdian, A., van Elsas, E., van der Brug, W., & Kuhn, T. (2013). Euroscepticism and education: A longitudinal study of twelve EU member states, 1973–2010. Amsterdam: AIAS, GINI Discussion Paper 92.Google Scholar
- Qvortrup, M. (2014). Referendums around the world: The continued growth of direct democracy. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar