Social Indicators Research

, Volume 146, Issue 1–2, pp 149–168 | Cite as

A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy

  • Sandra De IacoEmail author
  • Sabrina Maggio
  • Donato Posa


Several studies have demonstrated that skilled human capital is a key resource for the economic growth of a territory, since it helps to increase productivity, competitiveness and sustainability over time. The aim of this paper is to model the probability of working for university graduates 3 years after degree, taking into account the effectiveness and coherence of a degree with respect to the labour market. Hence, first of all, a multilevel binary logit model for measuring the probability of working will be discussed. Then, a multilevel multinomial model suitable to predict the probability of the possible job status, such as unemployed/unsteady employed/steady employed, will be further proposed. The ISTAT microdata regarding the Italian survey on the graduates’ employment conditions, will be used.


Skilled human capital Odd-ratios Multilevel binary logit model Multilevel multinomial logit model 



The authors are grateful to the Editor and the reviewers for their interest in the paper and the constructive suggestions provided during the revision process.


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© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Management and Economics (Sect. Mathematics and Statistics)University of SalentoLecceItaly

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