Setting research priorities in the field of emergency management: which piece of information are you willing to pay more?
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In this paper we show how EVPPI analysis can be a good tool to formalize the decision making process leading the design and implementation of interventions aimed at preventing and controlling the consequences of extraordinary events. More concretely we the economics of emergency as the approach aimed at defining how to identify which interventions would be more efficient to be implemented in order to minimize the risk of incurring in unexpected circumstances/events. Our rationale is that when dealing with complex decisions potentially leading to extraordinary circumstances, the first step for a decision makers should be to minimize the sources of uncertainty by mean of further research. This would inevitably entail investments and reallocation of resources. Our approach aims to define how to decide where is more efficient to intervene. Our paper provides a theoretical framework of the EVPPI and an application based on a hypothetical natural disaster. In the last section we discuss the limits of our approach and implications for further research.
KeywordsEmergency management Expected value for partial parameter information (EVPPI) Uncertainty Decision making Montecarlo simulations
JEL ClassificationsD7 D8 C63
Authors wish to thank the anonymous referees for suggestions. Moreover authors would like to honor the memory of the Sgt. Riccardo Padula of the Italian Red Cross for having inspired this work. Sgt Padula passed away on Thursday 7th March, the day we received the first revisions from the journal.
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