Quality & Quantity

, Volume 53, Issue 4, pp 1823–1835 | Cite as

Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?

  • Mario Arturo Ruiz EstradaEmail author
  • Donghyun Park
  • Alam Khan
  • Muhammad Tahir


We present a new model on the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process. The channels are faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade protectionism, and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of economic desgrowth. This new model is entitled “The Deglobalization Global Evaluation Model (DGE-Model)”. The objective of the DGE-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process of Muslim countries. The applicability of the DGE-Model is not limited to a specific group of Muslim countries or regions, nor is it constrained by the development stage. In short, the DGE-Model is a simple, flexible and versatile tool to study the link between terrorism and Deglobalization. Finally, we apply the DGE-Model to three Muslim countries, namely Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Our sample period is 1999–2018, a period which witnessed acceleration of Deglobalization and expansion of terrorism in those three countries.


Deglobalization Terrorism War ISIS Syria Iraq Afghanistan Economic modeling Economic desgrowth 

JEL Classification

R11 R12 



  1. Abu-Ismail, K., Abdel-Gadir, A., El-Laithy, H.: Poverty and inequality in Syria (1997–2007). UNDP, Arab Development Challenges Report, p 15 (2011)Google Scholar
  2. Cardoso, E.: Inflation and poverty (No. w4006). National Bureau of Economic Research (1992)Google Scholar
  3. Corcoran, M., Hill, M.S.: Unemployment and poverty. Soc. Serv. Rev. 54(3), 407–413 (1980)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. De Crombrugghe, D., Bluhm, R., Fosu, A.: Income inequality and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa (2016). Accessed 31 Oct 18
  5. Dollar, D., Kraay, A.: Growth is good for the poor. J. Econ. Growth 7(3), 195–225 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Easterly, W., Fischer, S.: Inflation and the poor. J. Money Credit Bank. 160–178 (2001)Google Scholar
  7. FAO: Gender differences in the transitional economy of Vietnam, ISBN 974-7946-21-1 (2002). Accessed on 30 Oct 2018
  8. Feldstein, M.: Income inequality and poverty (No. w6770). National Bureau of Economic Research (1998)Google Scholar
  9. Global Terrorism Index (2014). Available at
  10. Global Terrorism Index (2017). Available at
  11. IAU: Iraq Labour Force Analysis 2003–2008. Inter-Agency Information and Analysis-Unit (2009). Accessed on 17 Nov 2018
  12. Karnani, A.: Reducing poverty through employment. Innov. Technol. Gov. Glob. 6(2), 73–97 (2011)Google Scholar
  13. Khan, A.: Economic Causes and Consequences of Terrorism: A Study of Four Islamic Countries (Ph.D. Thesis), Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA), University of Malaya (UM), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2017).
  14. Keeton, G.: Inequality in South Africa. J. Helen Suzman Found. 74, 26–31 (2014)Google Scholar
  15. Nasser, R., Mehchy, Z., Abu Ismail, K.: Socioeconomic roots and impacts of the Syrian crisis. Syrian Centre for Policy Research. Syrian Centre Policy Res., Damascus (2013)Google Scholar
  16. Naschold, F.: Why inequality matters for poverty. ODI Inequal. Brief. Paper, 2 (2002)Google Scholar
  17. Nel, P. (2018). Inequality in Africa. Handb. Afr. Develop. 90Google Scholar
  18. Neumark, D., Wascher, W.: Do minimum wages fight poverty? Econ. Inq. 40(3), 315–333 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ravallion, M.: Income inequality in the developing world. Science 344(6186), 851–855 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Ruiz Estrada, M.A.: Policy modeling: definition, classification and evaluation. J. Policy Model. 33(3), 523–536 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Ruiz Estrada, M.A., Khan, A., Park, D.: The economic cost of the Islamic state on the Syrian and Iraqi economies. Qual. Quant. 52(4), 1707–1730 (2017a)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Ruiz Estrada, M.A., Park, D., Tahir, M., Khan, A.: How does terrorism affect the international trade of Muslims countries? Qual. Quant. 52(5), 2255–2268 (2017b)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Ruiz Estrada, M.A., Park, D.: The past, present and future of policy modeling. J. Policy Model. 40(1), 1–15 (2018)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Sembene, D.: Poverty, growth, and inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: did the walk match the talk under the PRSP approach? 15(122), 1–37 (2015)Google Scholar
  25. Saunders, P.: The direct and indirect effects of unemployment on poverty and inequality. Aust. J. Labour Econ. 5(4), 507 (2002)Google Scholar
  26. Shrestha, M.B., Chaudhary, S.K.: The impact of food inflation on poverty in Nepal. NBR Econ. Rev. (2012)Google Scholar
  27. Smith, R.E., Vavrichek, B.: The minimum wage: its relation to incomes and poverty. Mon. Lab. Rev. 110, 24 (1987)Google Scholar
  28. Singh, D.: Explaining varieties of corruption in the Afghan Justice Sector. J. Interv. State Build. 9(2), 231–255 (2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Sassoon, J.: Economic Lessons from Iraq for Countries of the Arab Spring. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (2012).
  30. UNHCR Report (2016). Available at
  31. United Nations (2010). Human Rights Dimension of Poverty in Afghanistan. Accessed on 15-11-2018
  32. World Bank (2015). An Analysis of National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) 2007/08 and 2011/12. Accessed on 16/11/2018

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
    • 1
    Email author
  • Donghyun Park
    • 2
  • Alam Khan
    • 3
  • Muhammad Tahir
    • 4
  1. 1.Social Security Research Centre (SSRC)University of MalayaKuala LumpurMalaysia
  2. 2.Asian Development Bank (ADB)Mandaluyong CityPhilippines
  3. 3.Faculty of Economics, Department of EconomicsKUSTKohatPakistan
  4. 4.Department of Management SciencesComsats Institute of Information TechnologyAbbottabadPakistan

Personalised recommendations