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Estimation of agricultural greenhouse gases emission in interprovincial regions of China during 1996–2014


Agriculture is an important component of national economy in China, and agricultural production is also an important source of greenhouse gas emission. Based on the methods of IPCC, this paper has improved the method with the researches of a large number of scholars. Then, according to the agricultural production data of interprovincial regions of China from 1996 to 2014, the CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture were carefully estimated. Then, based on the theory of club convergence in the field of economics, the estimation results are normalized and further analyzed. The results showed that the total CO2 emission has increased from 143.10 Tg in 1996 to 210.67 Tg in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 2.17%. The largest emission source is the coal for thermal power, accounting for 30% of total emission. The total CH4 emission fell from 23.44 Tg in 1996 to 20.99 Tg in 1997 and then showed a slight fluctuation tendency; the rice field is found to hold major position, accounting for 59% of total emission. The total N2O emission has increased from 337.5 Gg in 1996 to 405.3 Gg in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 1.02%. The main emission source is fertilizer, accounting for 59% of total emission. The total agricultural greenhouse gas emission in China shows an upward trend, increases from 915.09 Tg CO2 Eq. in 1996 to 965.90 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 0.3%. The fastest growing area is Heilongjiang, followed by Xinjiang.

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The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71603039). This research has also been supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M571309) and Doctoral Startup Funds of Liaoning Province (201601049).

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Correspondence to Nan Li.

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Li, N., Shang, L., Yu, Z. et al. Estimation of agricultural greenhouse gases emission in interprovincial regions of China during 1996–2014. Nat Hazards 100, 1037–1058 (2020).

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  • Agriculture in China
  • Interprovincial regions
  • Greenhouse gas
  • Emission
  • Emission factors
  • Normalized treatment