Springer Nature is making SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 research free. View research | View latest news | Sign up for updates

Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa

  • 148 Accesses

Abstract

The economy of Uganda depends heavily on rainfed agriculture. In this study, daily observed rainfall datasets from 9 weather stations with length varying within 1955 and 2017 were used to generate the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence using a Markov chain approach. The length of the maximum dry spell was obtained using the direct method based on the definition of a dry day that rainfall is less than 0.85 mm (R < 0.85 mm) and the length of a dry spell is the sum of the number of dry days in a sequence. Mann–Kendall’s statistics (MK) was used to assess the trends in the length of maximum dry spells and Sen’s slope test to estimate the magnitude of change (Q2) in days/per month. MK test results show increasing trends in the length of the maximum dry spells in March at 5 stations, while an insignificant decrease in the length of maximum dry spells is revealed for remaining stations. For the month of April and May, the length of a maximum dry spell is observed to be decreasing across most stations although not statistically significant at the 5% significance level during their respective study periods. The probability of 8 days dry spell is high across all the stations (38–69%) in March, April, and August. This could strongly be related to the changing climate in the region. Negative impacts due to increased length of dry spells could be mitigated through well-timed planting of crops, use of irrigation, and growing of heat-/drought-tolerant crop varieties to match the changing weather and climate patterns.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

  1. Abera TA, Heiskanen J, Pellikka P, Maeda EE (2018) Rainfall–vegetation interaction regulates temperature anomalies during extreme dry events in the Horn of Africa. Glob Planet Change 167:35–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.05.002

  2. ACF (2015) 2015/ 16 El Nino event global report. Action against hunger (ACF UK) Greenwich High Road London, SE10 8JA

  3. Adarsh S, VishnuPriya MS, Narayanan S, Smruthi MS, George P, Benjie NM (2016) Trend analysis of sediment flux time series from tropical river basins in India using non-parametric tests and multiscale decomposition. Model Earth Syst Environ 2:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s4080

  4. Adhikari U, Nejadhashemi AP, Woznicki SA (2015) Climate change and eastern Africa : a review of impact on major crops. Food Energy Secur. 4:110–132. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61

  5. Adhikary SK (2017) Cokriging for enhanced spatial interpolation of rainfall in two Australian catchments. Hydrol Process 31:2143–2161. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11163

  6. Aguilar E, Auer I, Brunet M, Peterson TC, Wieringa J (2003) Guidelines on climate metadata and homogenization, WMO/TD No. 1186. World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva

  7. Amissah-arthur A, Jagtap S, Rosenzweig C (2002) Spatio-temporal effects of El-Nino events on rainfall and maize yield in Kenya. Int J Climatol 22:1849–1860. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.858

  8. Anyamba A, Small JL, Britch SC, Tucker CJ, Pak EW, Reynolds CA, Crutchfield J, Linthicum KJ (2014) Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns. PLoS One 9:23–24. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092538

  9. Araya A, Stroosnijder L (2011) Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia. Agric For Meteorol 151:425–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.11.014

  10. Ayugi BO, Tan G (2019) Recent trends of surface air temperatures over Kenya from 1971 to 2010. Meteorol Atmos Phys 131:1401–1413. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0644-z

  11. Ayugi BO, Tan G, Ongoma V, Mafuru KB (2018) Circulations associated with variations in boreal spring rainfall over Kenya. Earth Syst. Environ 2:421–434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-018-0074-6

  12. Barron J, Rockström J, Gichuki F, Hatibu N (2003) Dry spell analysis and maize yields for two semi-arid locations in east Africa. Agric For Meteorol 117:23–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00037-6

  13. Basalirwa CK (1995) Delineation of Uganda into climatological rainfall zones using the methods of principal component analysis. Int J Climatol 15:1161–1177. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370151008

  14. Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rains: a CGCM study. J Clim 18:4514–4530. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI9018.1

  15. Bouagila B, Sushama L (2013) On the current and future dry spell characteristics over Africa. Atmosphere 4:272–298. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos4030272

  16. Brown E, Sutcliffe JV (2013) The water balance of Lake Kyoga, Uganda. Hydrol Sci J 58:341–353. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.753148

  17. Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694/82/0000-0000/$02.75

  18. Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M, Van Rensch P, Mat C, Vecchi G, Timmermann A, Santoso A, McPhaden MJ, Wu L, England MH, Wang G, Guilyardi E, Jin FF (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Chang 4:111–116. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100

  19. Camberlin P, Philippon N (2002) The East African March–May Rainy season : associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968–1997 period. J Clim 15:1002–1019. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C1002:TEAMMR%3E2.0.CO;2

  20. Changnon SA (1999) Impacts of 1997–98 El Niño-Generated Weather in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:1819–1827. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080%3c1819:IOENOG%3e2.0.CO;2

  21. Chen H, Sun J, Chen X (2014) Projection and uncertainty analysis of global precipitation-related extremes using CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol 34:2730–2748. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3871

  22. Ching LL (2009) Climate change implications for agriculture in sub-saharan Africa. In: Climate change and food systems resilience in sub-saharan Africa. pp 183–197

  23. Costa AC, Soares A (2009) Homogenization of climate data: review and new perspectives using geostatistics. Math Geosci 41:291–305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-008-9203-3

  24. Dunning CM, Black ECL, Allan RP (2012) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025428

  25. Egeru A (2012) Role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation : a case study of the role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation : a case study of the teso sub-region, eastern Uganda. Indian J Tradit Knowl 11:217–224

  26. Fischer BMC, Mul ML, Savenije HHG (2013) Determining spatial variability of dry spells : a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:2161–2170. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2161-2013

  27. Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller DN, O’Connel C, Ray DK, West PC, Balzer C, Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Hill J, Monfreda C, Polasky S, Rockstro J, Sheehan J, Siebert S, Tilman D, Zaks DPM (2011) Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–342. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10452

  28. Freitas L, Pereira MG, Caramelo L, Mendes M, Nunes LF (2013) Homogeneity of monthly air temperature in Portugal with HOMER and MASH. Idojaras 117:69–90

  29. Gamoyo M, Reason C, Obura D (2015) Rainfall variability over the East African coast. Theor Appl Climatol 120:311–322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1171-6

  30. Gbegbelegbe S, Serem J, Stirling C, Kyazze F, Radeny M, Misiko M, Tongruksawattana S, Nafula L, Gakii M, Kai S (2017) Smallholder farmers in eastern Africa and climate change : a review of risks and adaptation options with implications for future adaptation programmes. Clim Dev. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1374236

  31. Gitau W, Camberlin P, Ogallo L, Bosire E (2018) Trends of intraseasonal descriptors of wet and dry spells over. Int J Climatol 38:1189–1200. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5234

  32. GOU (2015) Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda. Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), Kampala

  33. Grubbs FE (1969) Procedures for detecting outlying observations in samples. Am Stat As Am Soc 11:1–21. https://doi.org/10.2307/1266761

  34. Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X

  35. Hartkamp AD, De Beurs K, Stein A, White JW (1999) Interpolation techniques for climate variables. NRG-GIS Series 99-01. CIMMYT, Mexico

  36. Hepworth N, Goulden M, Hammond GP, Jones CI (2008) Climate change in Uganda: understanding the implications and appraising the response. Proc Inst Civ Eng Energy 161:1–48. https://doi.org/10.1680/ener.2008.161.2.87

  37. Indeje M, Semazzi FHM, Ogallo LJ (2000) ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons. Int J Climatol 46:19–46. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:1%3c19:AID-JOC449%3e3.0.CO;2-0

  38. IPCC (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  39. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)] IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

  40. Kansiime MK, Wambugu SK, Shisanya CA (2013) Perceived and actual rainfall trends and variability in eastern Uganda : implications for Community preparedness and response. J Nat Sci Res 3:179–195

  41. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Griffin, London

  42. Kilimani N (2015) Vulnerability to climatic variability : an assessment of drought prevalence on water resources availability and implications for the Ugandan economy vulnerability to climatic variability : an assessment of drought prevalence on water resources availability. University of Pretoria South Africa

  43. Kizza M, Rodhe A, Xu C-Y et al (2009) Temporal rainfall variability in the Lake Victoria basin in East Africa during the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 98:119–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0093-6

  44. Kundzewicz ZW, Radziejewski M (2006) Methodologies for trend detection. In: Demuth S (ed) Climate variability and change-hydrological impacts. International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Germany, pp 538–550

  45. Laux P, Jäckel G, Tingem M, Kunstmann H (2009) Onset of the rainy season and crop yield in sub-Saharan Africa-tools and perspectives for Cameroon. Ecohydrol Surf Groundw Depend Syst 191:191–200

  46. Li G, Xiang X, Guo C (2016) Analysis of nonstationary change of annual maximum level records in the Yangtze River estuary. Adv Meteorol 2016:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7205723

  47. Liebmann B, Hoerling MP, Funk C, Bladé I, Dole RM, Allured D, Quan X, Philip Pegion AJKE (2014) Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change. J Clim 27:8630–8645. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1

  48. Longobardi A, Villani P (2010) Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 30:1538–1546. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc

  49. Ly S, Charles C, Degr A (2011) Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale : the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Geostat 15:2259–2274. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2259-2011

  50. Lyon B, Dewitt DG (2012) A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains. Geophys Res Lett 39:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050337

  51. MacKellar N, New M, Jack C (2014) Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South Africa: 1960–2010. S Afr J Sci 110:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2014/20130353

  52. Mair A, Fares A (2011) Comparison of rainfall interpolation methods in a mountainous region of a tropical island. Hydrol Eng A 16:375–383. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000330

  53. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

  54. Mchugh MJ (2004) Near-surface zonal flow and East African precipitation receipt during austral summer. J Clim 17:4070–4079. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c4070:NZFAEA%3e2.0.CO;2

  55. Mcsweeney C, New M, Lizcano G (2010) UNDP Climate change country profiles Uganda. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc226701/. Accessed 06 August 2019

  56. Min S, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470:378–381. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09763

  57. Modarres R, Sarhadi A (2009) Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010707

  58. Mubiru DN (2010) Climate change and adaptation options in Karamoja. National Agricultural Research Organisation, Kampala

  59. Mubiru DN, Komutunga E, Agona A, Apok A, Ngara T (2012) Characterising agrometeorological climate risks and uncertainties : crop production in Uganda. S Afr J Sci 108(3–4):108–118. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajs.v108i3/4.470

  60. Mugalavai ME, Kipkorir EC, Raes D, Songok CK (2012) Evaluation of dry spells during sensitive growth stages for maize crop in Western, In: The international conference on disaster risk reduction, and conflict resolution for sustainable development 18th–20th July 2012, Kakamega, Kenya

  61. Mugume I, Mesquita MDS, Basalirwa C, Waiswa D, Reuder J, Twinomuhangi R, Tumwine F, NgailoT J, Ogwang BA (2016) Patterns of dekadal rainfall variation over a selected region in lake victoria basin. Uganda Atmos 11(150):1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7110150

  62. Mutai C, Ward MN (2000) East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Am Meteorol Soc 13:3915–3939. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c3915:EARATT%3e2.0.CO;2

  63. Mutai C, Ward MN, Colman AW (1998) Towards the prediction of the East Africa short rains based on sea-surface temperature–atmosphere coupling. Int J Climatol 18:975–997. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199807)18:9%3c975:AID-JOC259%3e3.0.CO;2-U

  64. Nandozi CS, Omondi P, Komutunga E, Aribo L, Isubikalu P, Tenywa MM (2012) Regional climate model performance and prediction of seasonal rainfall and surface temperature of Uganda. African Crop Sci J 20(s2):213–225

  65. NAPA (2007) Climate change: Uganda national adaptation programmes of action (NAPA). Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), Kampala

  66. NEMA (2008) Pilot integrated ecosystem assessment of the Lake Kyoga catchment area, Kampala Uganda

  67. Nicholson S (1996) A review of climate dynamics and climate variability in Eastern Africa. In: Johnson TC, Odada EO (eds) The limnology, climatology, and paleoclimatology of the East African lakes. pp 25–56

  68. Nicholson SE (2000) The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millenia. Glob Planet Chang 26:137–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00040-0

  69. Nimusiima A, Basalirwa CPK, Majaliwa JGM, Otim-Nape W, Okello-Onen J, Rubaire-Akiiki C, Konde-Lule J, Ogwal-Byenek S (2013) Nature and dynamics of climate variability in the Uganda cattle corridor. African J Environ Sci Technol 7:770–782. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST2013.1435

  70. Nsubuga FW, Rautenbach H (2018) Climate change and variability : a review of what is known and ought to be known for Uganda. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 10:752–771. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-04-2017-0090

  71. Nsubuga FNW, Olwoch JM, de Rautenbach CJW (2011) Climatic trends at namulonge in Uganda: 1947–2009. J Geogr Geol 3:119–131. https://doi.org/10.5539/jgg.v3n1p119

  72. Nsubuga FNW, Olwoch JM, de Rautenbach CJW, Botai OJ (2014) Analysis of mid-twentieth century rainfall trends and variability over southwestern Uganda. Theor Appl Climatol 115:53–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0864-6

  73. Nsubuga FWN, Botai JO, Olwoch JM, de Rautenbach CJW, Kalumba AM, Tsela P, Adeola AM, Ssentongo AA, Mearns KF (2017) Detecting changes in surface-water area of Lake Kyoga sub-basin using remotely sensed imagery in a changing climate. Theor Appl Climatol 127:327–337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1637-1

  74. Ntale HK, Gan TY (2004) East African Rainfall Anomaly Patterns in Association with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. J Clim 9:257–268. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2004)9:4(257)

  75. Ogallo LJ, Chillambo WA (1984) The characteristics of wet spells in Tanzania. E Afr Agri For J 47(1–4):87–95

  76. Ogallo LA, Boulahya MS, Keane T (1999) Applications of seasonal to interannual climate prediction in agricultural planning and operations. Agric For Meteorol 103:159–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00109-X

  77. Ogwang BA, Chen H, Li X, Gao C (2014) The influence of topography on East African October to December climate: sensitivity experiments with RegCM4. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/143917

  78. Ogwang BA, Nimusiima A, Tindamanyire T, Serwanga MN, Ayesiga G, Ojara M, Ssebabi F, Gugwa G, Rt NK, Balikudembe JK, Kikonyogo H, Kalema A, Ongoma V, Taire A, Kiryhabwe A, Semujju M, Einyu F, Kituusa R (2016) Characteristics and changes in SON rainfall over. J Environ Agric Sci 8:45–53

  79. Oladayo N, Awojobi TJ (2017) The impacts of climate change in Africa: a review of the scientific literature. J Int Acad Res Multidiscip 5:39–52

  80. Ongoma V, Chen H (2017) Temporal and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation over East Africa from 1951 to 2010. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129:131–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0462-0

  81. Ongoma V, Chen H, Gao C, Nyongesa AM, Polong F (2017) Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Nat Hazards 90:901–920. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3079-9

  82. Ongoma V, Chen H, Omony GW (2018) Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda. Theor Appl Climatol 131:295–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1973-9

  83. Owiti Z, Zhu W (2012) Spatial distribution of rainfall seasonality over East Africa. J Geogr Reg Plan 5:409–421. https://doi.org/10.5897/JGRP12.027

  84. Phiiri GK, Egeru A, Ekwamu A (2016) Climate change and agriculture Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: the agonizing reality for smallholder farmers. Int J Cur Res Rev 8:57–64

  85. Rockström J, Barron J, Fox P (2003) Water productivity in rain-fed agriculture: challenges and opportunities for smallholder farmers in drought-prone tropical agroecosystems. Water Product Agric Limits Oppor Improv. https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851996691.0000

  86. Rosegrant M, Cai X, Cline S, Nakagawa N (2002) The role of rainfed agriculture in the future of global food production. https://www.ifpri.org/publication/role-rainfed-agriculture-future-global-food-production. Accessed 14 July 16, 2019

  87. Rowell D, Booth B, Nicholson S, Good P (2015) Reconciling past and future rainfall trends over East Africa. J Clim 28:9768–9788. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1

  88. Rummukainen M (2012) Changes in climate and weather extremes in the 21st century. WIREs Clim Change 3:115–129. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.160

  89. Sansom J (1999) A hidden Markov model for rainfall using breakpoint data.pdf. J Clim 11:42–53. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011%3c0042:AHMMFR%3e2.0.CO;2

  90. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Am Stat As 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891

  91. Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo Y, Marengo J, McInnes K, Rahimi M, Reichstein M, Sorteberg A, Vera C, Zhang X (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230

  92. Shiferaw B, Tesfaye K, Kassie M, Abate T, Prasanna BM, Menkir A (2014) Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: technological, institutional and policy options. Weather Clim Extrem 3:67–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.04.004

  93. Siderius C, Van Walsum PEV, Roest CWJ, Smita AAMFR, Hellegers PJGJ, Kabatd P, Van Ierland EC (2016) The role of rainfed agriculture in securing food production in the Nile Basin. Environ Sci Policy 61:14–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.007

  94. Souverijns N, Thiery W, Demuzere M, Van Lipzig NPM (2016) Drivers of future changes in East African precipitation. Environ Res Lett 11:114011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114011

  95. Srikanthan R, Mcmahon TA (2001) Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: a review. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:653–670. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-653-2001

  96. Ssentongo P, Muwanguzi AJB, Eden U, Sauer T, BwangaG KG, Aribo L, Ojara M, Kisamba MW, Schif JS (2018) Changes in Ugandan climate rainfall at the village and forest level. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21427-5

  97. Stern R, Leidi S, Dale I, Grayer C (1982) Instat tutorial. Statistical services centre. The University of Reading, Reading

  98. Stern R, Rijks D, Dale I, Knock J (2006) Instat climatic guide. Statistical services centre. The University of Reading, Reading

  99. Stern DI, Gething PW, Kabaria CW, Temperley WH, Noor AM, Okiro EA, Shanks GD, Snow RW, Hay I (2011) Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa. PLoS ONE 6:4–12. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024524

  100. Takaoka S (2005) Impact of the 1997-1998 El Niño Rains on Farms in the Mount Kenya region. Int Mt Soc 25:326–331. https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025%5b0326:iotenr%5d2.0.co;2

  101. Theil H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis In Proceedings of the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Wetenschappen, Mathematics (I) and (II).Amsterdam Netherlands, pp 386–392, 521–525

  102. Thornton P (2012) Recalibrating food production in the developing world: global warming will change more than just the climate. CCAFS Policy Brief no. 6. CGIAR research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (CCAFS). https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/24696. Accessed 10 Aug 2018

  103. Tierney JE, Ummenhofer CC, Peter B (2015) Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. Sci Adv 1(9):e1500682. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682

  104. Tilya FF, Mhita MS (2007) Frequency of wet and dry spells in Tanzania. In: Sivakumar MVK, Ndiangui N (eds) Climate and land degradation. Environmental science and engineering (environmental science). Springer, Berlin, pp 197–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_10

  105. UBOS (2014) Census population. Uganda national population housing census results. Kampla Uganda

  106. UNFCC (2007) Impacts, Vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries. Climate change secretariat (UNFCCC) Martin-Luther-King-Strasse 8 53175 Bonn, Germany

  107. Wambua RM, Mutua BM, Raude JM (2015) Spatio-temporal drought characterization for the upper Tana River Basin, Kenya using standardized precipitation index (SPI). World J Environ Eng 3:111–120. https://doi.org/10.12691/wjee-3-4-2

  108. Wilks DS, Wilby RL (1999) The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models. Prog Phys Geogr 3:329–357. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309-1333(99)PP227RA

  109. Williams AP, Funk C (2011) A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Clim Dyn 37:2417–2435. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y

  110. WMO (2013) Guide to climatological practices. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva

  111. Yengoh GT, Armah FA, Onumah EE, Odoi JO (2010) Trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall characteristics for small-scale agriculture in Northern Ghana. J Agric Sci 2:3–16. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v2n3p3

Download references

Acknowledgements

The first and second authors also wish to acknowledge the support from the Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875177), and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. The authors of this work acknowledge the contributions of the previous authors cited in this paper. Our sincere thanks go to Mr. Aribo Lawrence and Mr. Othira Collins from UNMA for organizing and testing the quality of datasets before the actual analysis.

Author information

Correspondence to Yunsheng Lou.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ojara, M.A., Lou, Y., Aribo, L. et al. Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa. Nat Hazards 100, 493–514 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x

Download citation

Keywords

  • Dry spells
  • Lake Kyoga Basin
  • Markov chain process
  • Mann–Kendall
  • Agriculture
  • Uganda