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Extreme events: a framework for assessing natural hazards

  • Franck MazasEmail author
Original Paper

Abstract

The two-step framework for over-threshold modelling of environmental extremes proposed in Bernardara et al. (Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:635–647, 2014) for univariate analyses is generalized to an event-based framework applicable to multivariate analyses. The distinction between sequential values (temporal observations at a given time step) and the event-describing values (such as storm peaks in univariate Peaks-Over-Threshold extrapolations) is further detailed and justified. The classification of multivariate analyses introduced in Mazas and Hamm (Coast Eng 122:44–59, 2017) is refined and linked to the meaning of the concepts of event, sampling and return period that is thoroughly examined, their entanglement being highlighted. In particular, sampling is shown to be equivalent to event definition, identification and description. Event and return period definition are also discussed with respect to the source phenomena or to response (or structure) phenomena. The extreme event approach is thus proposed as a comprehensive framework for univariate and multivariate analyses for assessing natural hazards, seemingly applicable to any field of environmental studies.

Keywords

Event Sampling Return period Extreme values Peaks-Over-Threshold Multivariate analyses 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This paper presents the true substance of nearly a decade of research at Artelia, gathered in a PhD on published works. Thus, many fellow researchers were involved in the slow development and understanding of this concept. Among them are in particular Dr Luc Hamm, who oversaw years of research and co-authored my papers. My thesis director Dr Nicole Goutal and the conscientious and benevolent rapporteurs Pr Eric Gaume and Dr Xavier Bertin helped a lot to improve the result. During these years, collaboration and discussions with researchers such as Pr Michel Benoit, Dr Pietro Bernardara, Dr Xavier Kergadallan, Dr Ivan Haigh and other young fellows played a major role to develop these ideas, not to mention many people met in conferences. Last, the reviewers certainly helped to very much improve the quality of this paper by their thorough review and relevant comments.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.ArteliaÉchirollesFrance

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