Assessing the technology impact for industry carbon density reduction in China based on C3IAM-Tice
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Thermal power, steel, cement, and coal chemical industries account 62.6% energy consumption and 84.6% carbon emissions of China simultaneously in 2015. This research use C3IAM-Tice model to analyze the impact of advanced technologies ratio increasing quantitatively. The model can explore the balance of emission reduction and economy efficiency of energy use, finally got the technology structure optimization for these four industries. The paper uses the historical energy consumption and CO2 emission, combing with the low-carbon developing goal objection, to create the database for these four energy- and carbon-intensive industries. As the result, the scenario-4, which is the most advanced technology-oriented strategy, shows 282 Mt CO2 emission reductions for the 2020 Goal. In this scenario, 26.19%, 47.43%, 65.39%, and 28.98% of the CO2 emissions per unit of added value in thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry could be reduced comparing with data in 2005. Although the advanced technology-oriented strategy shows the positive impact, we need to consider the cost of elimination of existed technology. On the other hand, the paper notices the future technology, with new energy alternative, low-carbon economy development, and industry restructure together, which are important factors for the low-carbon development of China.
KeywordsC3IAM-Tice Carbon reduction Industry
1.1 Industry historical development-based on data analysis
Figure 1a, b shows the large ratio of these industries in whole China energy consumption and CO2 emission. In 2015, the whole China energy consumption is 4.3 billion tce, and thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry dividedly consumed 1.5 billion tce, 0.73 billion tce, 0.22 billion tce, and 0.23 billion tce of energy and account 35.2%, 16.9%, 5.1%, and 5.4% of the whole primary energy consumption (Wei et al. 2015). In the same time, the whole China CO2 emission in 2015 is 9.1 billion tone, and thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry dividedly emit 4.3 billion tons, 1.9 billion tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 0.5 billion tons of CO2, and account 47.2%, 20.4%, 11.8%, and 5.1% of the whole primary carbon emissions.
The increasing trend of thermal power, steel, cement, coal chemical industry CO2 emission from 2005 to 2015 is shown in Fig. 1c. As the economic scale of these four carbon intensity industries increase, they simultaneously occupy the major part of the whole China CO2 emission.
1.2 Set these four industry emission control goal combining with the whole China INDC
The carbon reduction for these four energy-intensive industries will affect the existed economy and the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) target for China. The INDC of China shows the ambition to achieve the goals of reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 40–45% by 2020 from the 2005 level and peaking carbon emission in around 2030 (the state council determined). By that time, we will control the non-fossil energy consumption accounting for about 20% of the primary energy consumption, as shown in Fig. 1d.
Thermal power industry emits large parts of CO2 but contributes less added value, comparing with its emission.
The installed thermal power capacity is 9.93 billion kw in 2015 (CNEB 2015). It consumes large part of coal, and this number is increasing from 0.77 to 1.433 billion tce, and in the same time, carbon emission is increasing from 2.197 to 4.109 billion tons which accounted 32–40% in China emissions in 2005–2015 (China National Bureau of Statitics 2005–2015). In the same time, it has 471.7 billion Yuan, accounting 2.24% of all China industry GDP in 2013. This number is 150.3 billion Yuan, accounting 1.94% of GDP in 2005.
Steel industry supports GDP when emits lots of CO2 as well.
The added value of steel industry is 1683.3 billion Yuan, accounting 7.99% of all China industry GDP in 2013 (China National Bureau of Statitics 2013; World Steel Association 2013). This number is 493.6 billion Yuan, accounting 6.39% of GDP in 2005. In the same time, it consumes large part of China coal, increasing from 212 to 645 Mt, accounted 15.5–17.9% of all, and emit 793.04–1905.08 Mt with ratio of 11.67–18.32% in China CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2015.
Cement industry emits large parts of CO2 during its chemical process of production.
Cement industry’s carbon emission is increasing from 754.33 to 1096.95 Mt accounted for 11.11–10.55% in China emissions in 2005–2015. Most of CO2 emission is coming from its chemical process of production, as well as its energy consumption. Its added value is 558.6 billion Yuan, accounting 2.65% of all China industry GDP in 2013. This number is 95 billion Yuan, accounting 1.23% of GDP in 2005.
Coal chemical industry contributes a lot of added value in China but emits more CO2.
The coal chemical industry support 868.79 billion Yuan added value, accounting 4.12% of all China industry GDP in 2013. This number is 253.58 billion Yuan, accounting 3.28% of GDP in 2005. Coal chemical industry also consumes large part of China energy increasing from 52.26 to 231.25 Mtce accounted 1.99–5.38%. In the same time, the coal chemical industry’s carbon emission is increasing from 215.38 to 468.57 Mt accounted 4.03–5.10% in China emissions in 2005–2015.
1.3 Assessing the technology impact on industry carbon density reduction in China
These four industries have advanced technologies as well as backward capacity, which need eliminate. The technology structure optimization for these four industries is the major low-carbon roadmap for the future development. It is meaningful to increase the ratio of more advanced technologies including the ultra-supercritical thermal power producing technology, the short process steel-making technology, the new dry process cement producing technology, and the carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) especially in coal chemical industry. It is valuable to assess the impacts for technology application in industry low-carbon developing road map and industry carbon density reduction in China, during by 2020. Scenarios can be set up to explore the benefit and cost impact of low-carbon technologies.
China GDP increased fast from 1978, so do the trend of increase in CO2 emission. It seems GDP has a higher speed, making the CO2 emission per GDP unit decrease these years. It is possible to assess the technology reduction impact with energy structure reduction impact, using the scenarios strategic planning methodology. Different scenarios could be set to show the roadmap to reach the carbon emission peak, and the year 2020 point which INDC announce China will reduce 40–45% of CO2 emission per GDP by 2005.
2 Literature review
Since these four industries occupy large amount of the whole China’ CO2 emission and energy consumption, supporting the economy as well, it is necessary to draw a whole picture of China economy development and emission control in the future. In the same time, since the large part of these four industries’ fuel use and its producing process, the low-carbon technology is also the major consideration for future development.
Energy and environmental technology impact model literature review
Thermal power industry
Profit maximization model on carbon tax
Emission factor decreased, increasing the generation, manpower and transportation, using low-carbon energy to reduce cost of carbon tax
(Yan et al. 2017)
The generation structure dominated by thermal power affects the eco-efficiency of the power industry
(Liu et al. 2014)
Two-stage game model
Under discriminated emission tax regime, a smaller emission abatement cost is achieved
(Xu et al. 2016)
Use mature low-carbon technology to control the steel output rate and GDP growth rate of 3%, can achieve 2020 CO2 emissions target
(Lin and Wang 2015)
Compared the relationship between energy consumption and carbon intensity of steel industry in different countries, found that industrial boundary definition, transformation factor and industrial structure have influence on emission intensity
(Hasanbeigi et al. 2016)
Simulate the actual speed, temperature and other related physical and chemical processes in the cement producing to optimize the reaction conditions to reduce fuel consumption
(Mikulčić et al. 2012)
Through economic measures, energy substitution and reduced use of the method, 10 years of CO2 emissions by 28%
(Deja et al. 2010)
Coal chemical industry
Two levels of kernel
From the industry and enterprise level of coal chemical greenhouse gas emissions accounting, to confirm the emission point source, accounting boundary
(Xie et al. 2010)
Two-stage CO2 accounting model
Considering the scale of the development of the industry, structural adjustment, technological progress and other factors, that low-carbon transformation should follow the principle of product structure adjustment and technological progress
(Rahman et al. 2017)
Raw material structure and energy efficiency are the main factors affecting CO2 emissions
(Zhou et al. 2010)
Most of the models existed is developed in IPCC structure. Our model is referenced by different mature models, including the economy-based models such as the 3Es model [energy, economy, and environment, CGE model (computable general equilibrium)] (Yahoo and Othman 2015), IO model (input and output) (Dietzenbacher et al. 2013; Timmer et al. 2015; Tukker and Dietzenbacher, 2013; Wiedmann 2009; Miller and Blair 2009); the regional models, such as global energy–economy model (Quirion 2015; Nakata 2004; Cai et al. 2015), national energy system model (Schank 1978; Gabriel and Kydes 1994; Energy Information Administration 1994); the technology choice model; and system optimization model (El-Khattam et al. 2005; Yang et al. 2007; Lansey and Mays 1989). All these models are based on the historical analysis, which could help to forecast the future development and help us to set up two levels of models.
The model with China economy, energy use, and CO2 emission need to be developed, suitable for the emission factor, energy type, and resource demographic of China. The existed models could help us explore the technology impact on industry carbon density reduction. The next chapter will introduce the C3IAM-Tice model we develop and the data we use to assess the impact technology-oriented scenarios.
3 Methodology, data, and model
3.1 C3IAM-Tice model and data
Figure 2 shows the C3IAM-Tice model, which is mainly combined by China ICEC model (Industry Carbon Emission Calculation Model) and China TICE model. ICEC model is developed by CAS, which considers IPCC methodology (IPCC), SAC methodology, and CAS carbon project methodology (Wei et al. 2015) together. IPCC methodology is a global and regional model to help us calculate different countries, but China emission factor is not well defined. SAC methodology is suitable for different industries’ emission and energy consumption calculation using the input and output data of companies, and its processing technology, but SAC methodology is not suitable for the regional calculation when we calculate China as divided regions. CAS carbon project methodology gets full covered technology emission factors and specific industry processing energy efficiency factors and sets up a China industry emission and energy efficiency factor database, which could help us to combine IPCC methodology, SAC methodology, and CAS carbon project methodology together. It is possible for us to calculate the industry emission using technology proportion and its different emission and energy efficiency factor based on ICEC model. With the base of ICEC model, it is possible to further our study on China TICE model.
The TICE model has four parts of main functions, the industry model, the technology scenarios, the technology structure, and the technology cost, which is similar to LEAP methodology. The TICE model based on ICEC model could help us explore the technology impact on industry carbon density reduction, with the energy, economy, emission, and environment impacts assessing.
The scenario description of thermal power, steel, cement, and chemical industry in 2020
Medium temperature and pressure
High temperature and pressure
(a) The scenario description of power plant in 2020
The same technology structure
The same capacity
New generating capacity is added, based on the same technology structure of advanced technology
The same capacity
30% of new generating capacity added
70% of new generating capacity added
The same capacity
100% of New generating capacity added
Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace
Electric arc furnace
(b) The scenario description of steel in 2020
The percentages are the same
Percentage increases to 7%, 10%, and 13%, respectively
Percentage decreases to 93%, 90%, and 87%, respectively
Shaft kiln process
New dry kiln
(c) The scenario description of cement in 2020
The percentages are the same
Percentage increases to 97%, 98%, and 99%, respectively
Percentage with other process decreases to 3%, 2%, and 1%, respectively
Traditional coal chemistry
Advanced coal chemistry
(d) The scenario description of coal chemical industry in 2020
Percentage of CCS increases to 10%, 20% and 40%, respectively
As discussed in the methodology, this study requires data of production, energy intensity, emission factor, industrial added value, and cost of these four industries.
The carbon dioxide emission factors for different industries and energy intensity are collected from CAS Strategic Priority Research Program named Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues, which project investigated 4243 coal mines and around 2000 enterprises, to collect more than 600 coal samples, forming carbon oxidation factors of 15 industries.
The past and present production, technology structure, industrial added value, and cost are compiled from various statistical yearbooks (China National Bureau of Statitics 2013; World Steel Association 2013, Committee, Committee, Bureau, Committee, Committee, Committee) and previous studies (Wang et al. 2007; Xu et al. 2015; Shen et al. 2014; Sun et al. 2011). The projected data of those in 2020 refer to policies and studies.
4 Analysis and results
The research uses C3IAM-TICE model to explore existing mature technology efficiency and its impacts on CO2 emission reduction, CO2 emission per added value, and its different reduction proportion comparing 2005. The model sets up four scenarios, to assess technology impact on these four industries’ carbon density reduction in China, including the Scenario 1—Baseline, Scenario 2—Trend, Scenario 3—Optimized, and Scenario 4—Advanced. The Scenario 1—Baseline is the baseline scenario without technology-oriented policy. Scenario 1 shows the reduction of CO2 emission per unit of added value in thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry, and is divided into 23.74%, 45.58%, 65.11%, and 14.94%, comparing with 2005. On the other hand, the Scenario 4—Advanced is the advanced technology-oriented policy scenario. Scenario 4 shows 26.19% reduction ratio in thermal power industry, as well as 47.43% reduction ratio in steel industry, 65.39% reduction ratio in cement industry, and 28.98% reduction ratio in coal chemical industry, comparing factor of CO2 emission per unit of added value with 2005.
Figure 3 shows two circles for the CO2 emission of industries. Four scenarios are set up to explore how the existing backward technology and low-carbon advanced technology application, in-depth analysis of carbon emission, construction investment, and technical changes in the proportion of overall influence on production cost. Figure 3 shows the technology-oriented development CO2 emission circle based on Scenario 4 and the trend development CO2 emission circle based on Scenario 1. The trend development means that the similar trend of existed technology, and it will emit 8695 Mt for these four industries. The technology-oriented development means most advanced technology exchanging existed technology, and it will emit 8413 Mt for these four industries.
Figure 3 shows the combination, and four colors are the description of carbon emission reduction impacts of four industries. The red one is the thermal power industry impacts of using advanced technology, has 8.9 proportion pointes higher ultra-supercritical power technology ratio, and will reduce 64 Mt CO2 emissions. The yellow one is the cement industry impacts of using advanced technology, has 3 proportion pointes higher new dry process technology ratio, and will reduce 5 Mt CO2 emissions. The blue one is the steel industry impacts of using advanced technology, has 40 proportion pointes higher electric arc furnace ratio, and will reduce 90 Mt CO2 emissions. The black one is the coal chemical industry impacts of using advanced technology, has 40 proportion pointes higher CCS technology application ratio in new coal chemical, and will reduce 121 Mt CO2 emissions.
4.1 Thermal power industry
Through scenario analysis, we can see thermal power industry technology has the most CO2 emission reduction impacts, as shown in Appendix 1 in ESM.
Appendix 1 in ESM shows the 8.9% gap of ultra-supercritical power technology ratio, will have the impacts of 64 Mt of CO2 emission reduction, 39 kg/Yuan of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction, 2.5% of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction comparing with 2005.
4.2 Coal chemical industry
Through scenario analysis, we can see coal chemical industry is cost valuable when applied CCS technology based on the carbon tax, as shown in Appendix 2 in ESM.
Due to the industry added value data of coal chemical industry cannot be obtained, we refer to the CO2 emission per industry added value data in the literature and then obtain the industry added value of each sub-industry through a series of conversion. Specifically, the CO2 emission per industry added value for coal-to-methanol, coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-oil, coal-to-olefins ,and coal-to-ethylene glycol was 25.8 t/10,000 Yuan, 37.09 t/10,000 Yuan, 14.55 t/10,000 Yuan, 20.91 t/10,000 Yuan, 16.73 t/10,000 Yuan (YuanYuan et al. 2016), respectively.
4.3 Steel industry
Through scenario analysis, we can see steel industry is cost valuable when applied low-carbon technology, as shown in Appendix 3 in ESM.
Appendix 3 in ESM shows the 8.8% gap of electric arc furnace process technology ratio, will have the impacts of 90 Mt of CO2 emission reduction, 3 kg/Yuan of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction, 1.9% of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction from 2005.
4.4 Cement industry
Through scenario analysis, we can see cement industry is pursuing the future technology for its next step carbon reduction, as shown in Appendix 4 in ESM.
Appendix 4 in ESM shows the 3.0% gap of new dry process technology ratio, will have the impacts of 5 Mt of CO2 emission reduction, 2.3 kg/Yuan of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction, 0.28% of CO2 emission per coal power industry added value reduction from 2005.
Thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry have the most advanced technologies but also most backward capacity need eliminate. Although these four industries support the rapid economy increase in China, they maintain large energy consumption and carbon emissions of China simultaneously.
Figure 4 shows the technology-oriented development cost impacts of CO2 emission and that would be valuable for low-carbon future. C3IAM-Tice model would be a quantitative analyzing tool for energy industry technology in China, with the deep analysis for reduction impact of CO2 emission, CO2 emission per unit of GDP, and how the technology impact on energy and carbon insensitivity.
As the conclusion, the result of model arises the thinking about how policy applied for the future low-carbon development in industries.
First, the technology development should follow the energy planning and industry planning, as well as the INDC targets. The carbon reduction for these four energy-intensive industries will affect the existing economy and the INDC target for China, in achieving the goals of reducing CO2 emission per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 from the 2005 level and peaking carbon emission in around 2030. In C3IAM-Tice model, the energy and industry planning targets as well as the INDC targets are used to create database and scenario factor, which make the forecasting more applicable.
Secondly, the economical and CO2-reduction efficiency should be the balance situation for the decision maker. These four industries have the most advanced technologies but also most backward capacity need eliminate. The advanced technologies can improve the carbon efficiency of industry, including the ultra-supercritical thermal power producing technology, the short process steel-making technology, the new dry process cement producing technology, and the Carbon capture and storage technology especially in coal chemical industry. The technology structure optimization for these four industries is the major low-carbon roadmap for the future development, but we still need to consider the cost of elimination of existed technology. To increase the ratio of more advanced technologies means more existed industry be eliminated.
Thirdly, the research finds that although the technology impact on the industry low-carbon development is obvious, the future technology, the new energy alternative, low-carbon economy development, and the industry restructure together are important factors for the low-carbon development of China.
This research is supported by (1) National Key R&D Program (Nos. 2016YFA0602603, 2016YFA0602602); (2) National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51778601); (3) Shanghai Science and Technology Committee key R & D projects (No.15DZ1170600); (4) Chinese Academy of Sciences Youth Innovation Promotion Association Funding.
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