Abstract
Majuro is a low-lying island perched on a coral atoll in the central Pacific Ocean and is home to nearly 28,000 people. Considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of marine inundation, Majuro is expected to experience increasingly severe inundation as a result of continued sea-level rise. Popular media, academic papers, government reports, disaster declarations and other online resources are used to document 18 inundation events at Majuro over the past 36 years, which caused considerable impact to local physical and anthropogenic systems. The physical drivers and impacts of the documented inundation events are examined using tide gauge and weather observations and wave model hindcasts. The ocean-facing shorelines of Majuro experience frequent inundation caused by swell waves generated by distant storms from both the north and the south Pacific Ocean. In some instances, complete overwashing of the island by swell waves has been reported. Less frequent, although potentially far more damaging, are inundation events associated with typhoons and tropical storms, with the most recent in 1997. Inundation along the sheltered lagoon-facing shoreline of Majuro has occurred in the absence of waves due to the coincidence of high sea levels during La Niña conditions and seasonally high tides, as in 2011. Lagoon inundation also appears to have been caused by offshore swell penetrating into the lagoon, most effectively at high tide, and by locally generated wind waves within the lagoon. The classes of inundation identified in this study have unique drivers and the impacts have varying spatial and temporal characteristics in terms of impact and predictability. The inundation events are discussed with respect to the drivers of inundation and the future outlook under rising sea-level conditions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aucan J, Hoeke R, Merrifield M (2012) Wave-driven sea level anomalies at the Midway tide gauge as an index of North Pacific storminess over the past 60 years. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052993
Barnett J, Adger WN (2003) Climate dangers and atoll countries. Clim Change 61(3):321–337. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88
Becker J, Merrifield M, Ford M (2014) Water level effects on breaking wave setup for Pacific Island fringing reefs. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(2):914–932. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009373
Blumenstock DI (1958) Typhoon effects at Jaluit atoll in the Marshall Islands. Nature 182:1267–1269
Blumenstock DI, Fosberg F, Johnson CG (1961) The re-survey of typhoon effects on Jaluit Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Nature 189:618–620
Bosserelle C, Reddy S, Lal D (2015) WACOP wave climate reports. Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Majuro
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2004) Formation of tropical storms in an atmospheric general circulation model. Tellus A 56(1):56–67
Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Gaffney SJ et al (2007) Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part I: general properties. J Clim 20(14):3635–3653. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4188.1
Cheriton OM, Storlazzi CD, Rosenberger KJ (2016) Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding. J Geophys Res Oceans 121(5):3121–3140. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011231
Chowdhury MR, Chu P, Schroeder T (2007) ENSO and seasonal sea-level variability: a diagnostic discussion for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Theor appl climatol 88(3–4):213–224
Chunks fall off Majuro (2015) Marshall Islands Journal, p 11
Church JA, White NJ, Hunter JR (2006) Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands. Global Planet Change 53(3):155–168
Church JA et al (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 1137–1141. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
Cox AT, Cardone VJ, Swail VR (2011) On the use of the climate forecast system reanalysis wind forcing in ocean response modeling. In: 12th International workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and 3rd coastal hazards symposium Kohala Coast, Hawaii October 31–November 4, 2011
Damaging waves expected in the Pacific this weekend (2013) http://www.sprep.org/climate-change/damaging-waves-expected-in-the-pacific-this-weekend. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Dickinson WR (2009) Pacific atoll living: how long already and until when. GSA Today 19(3):4–10. https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG35A.1
Dullo W (2005) Coral growth and reef growth: a brief review. Facies 51(1–4):33–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10347-005-0060-y
Durrant T, Hemer M, Trenham C (2013) CAWCR wave hindcast 1979–2010. v5. CSIRO Data Collect. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/523168703dcc5
Economic Policy, Planning and Statistics Office (EPPSO), Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (2012) The RMI 2011 census of population and housing summary and highlights only
FEMA (1988) Republic of the Marshall Islands Tropical Storm Roy (DR-809)
FEMA (1992) Republic of the Marshall Islands tropical Storm Axel (DR-932)
FEMA (1994) Republic of the Marshall Islands high surf, wave action (DR-1040)
Ford M (2011) Shoreline changes on an urban atoll in the central Pacific Ocean: Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. J Coast Res 28(1):11–22. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11-00008.1
Ford MR, Becker JM, Merrifield MA (2012) Reef flat wave processes and excavation pits: observations and implications for Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. J Coast Res 29(3):545–554. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00097.1
Ford M, Becker JM, Merrifield MA et al (2013) Marshall Islands fringing reef and atoll lagoon observations of the Tohoku Tsunami. Pure Appl Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-013-0757-8
Genz J, Aucan J, Merrifield M, Finney B, Joel K, Kelen A (2009) Wave transformations in indigenous navigation. Oceanography 22:234–245
Ginoza L (1979a) Majuro pounded by big surf. Pacific Daily News, p 1
Ginoza L (1979b) Majuro damage into millions. Pacific Daily News, p 3
High tide hits (2011) Marshall Islands Journal, p 3
Hoeke RK, McInnes KL, Kruger J et al (2013) Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves. Global Planet Change 108:128–138
Hoversten P (1979) Marshalls hit again. Pacific Daily News, p 1
Hubbard D, Gischler E, Davies P et al (2014) Island outlook: warm and swampy. Science 345(6203):1461. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.345.6203
Johnson G (1994) FEMA mulls disaster aid. Marshall Islands Journal, p 1
Johnson G (2013) Road blocked, homes soaked. Marshall Islands Journal, pp 10–11
Johnson, G. (2014) High tides surge into Majuro. Marshall Islands Journal, pp 16–17
Johnson G (2015) High tide causes floods around the Marshalls. Marshall Islands Journal, p 21
June 2013 New Zealand Storm (2013). https://hwe.niwa.co.nz/event/June_2013_New_Zealand_Storm. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Kabua, P. (1997). Tabulation of preliminary damage reports after the wake of Typhoon Paka. Office of the Chief Secretary of the Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kayanne H, Yasukochi T, Yamaguchi T et al (2011) Rapid settlement of Majuro Atoll, central Pacific, following its emergence at 2000 years CalBP. Geophys Res Lett 38(20):L20405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049163
Kench PS, Cowell PJ (2001) The morphological response of Atoll Islands to sea-level rise. Part 2: application of the modified shoreface translation model (STM). J Coast Res (special issue 34):645–656
Kench PS, McLean RF, Brander RW et al (2006a) Geological effects of tsunami on mid-ocean Atoll Islands: the Maldives before and after the Sumatran tsunami. Geology 34(3):177–180. https://doi.org/10.1130/G21907.1
Kench PS, Brander RW, Parnell KE et al (2006b) Wave energy gradients across a Maldivian atoll: implications for island geomorphology. Geomorphology 81(1):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.03.003
Kench PS, Owen SD, Ford MR (2014) Evidence for coral island formation during rising sea level in the central Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059000
Leatherman SP (1997) Island states at risk: global climate change, development and population. Coastal Education & Research Foundation, West Palm Beach
Lewis R (2015) ‘Disaster after disaster’ hits Marshall Islands as climate change kicks in. Aljazeera America. http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/18/disaster-after-disaster-in-low-lying-marshall-islands.html. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Lugo-Fernández A, Roberts HH, Suhayda JN (1998) Wave transformations across a Caribbean fringing-barrier coral reef. Cont Shelf Res 18(10):1099–1124. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(97)00020-4
Majuro flooded for third time in one week (2008). Pacific Islands report, Radio New Zealand International. http://pidp.org/pireport/2008/December/12-17-01.htm. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Maragos JE (1993) Impact of coastal construction on coral reefs in the US-affiliated pacific Islands. Coast Manag 21(4):235–269. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920759309362207
Merrifield M, Becker J, Ford M et al (2014) Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands. Geophys Res Lett 41(20):7245–7253. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061005
Mimura N (1999) Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change. Clim Res 12:137–143. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr012137
Night in the storm: Much more than they bargained for. (1992) Marshall Islands Journal, p 10
Osawa Y, Fujita K, Umezawa Y et al (2010) Human impacts on large benthic foraminifers near a densely populated area of Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. Mar Pollut Bull 60(8):1279–1287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.03.014
Owen S, Kench P, Ford M (2016) Improving understanding of the spatial dimensions of biophysical change in Atoll Island countries and implications for island communities: a Marshall Islands’ case study. Appl Geogr 72:55–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.05.004
PacIOOS (2016) Wave run-up forecast: Majuro, RMI. http://www.pacioos.hawaii.edu/shoreline/runup-majuro/. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Padden R (1979) Heavy damage becomes destruction. Pacific Daily News, pp 10–11
Peter J, Shuster DR, Stege KE et al (2002) Micronesia in review: issues and events, 1 July 2000 to 30 June 2001. Contemp Pac 14(1):186–212
Pope T (2013) High tides cause flooding in Majuro in the Marshall Islands. http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/program/pacific-beat/high-tides-cause-flooding-in-majuro-in-the-marshall-islands/1151184. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Quataert E, Storlazzi C, Rooijen A et al (2015) The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines. Geophys Res Lett 42(15):6407–6415. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064861
Record tide of 6.6 ft. (1993) Marshall Islands Journal, p 19
Roy P, Connell J (1991) Climatic change and the future of atoll states. J Coast Res 7(4):1057–1075
Southern edge of Majuro inundated with water (2014) Marshall Islands Journal, p 15
Spennemann DH (1996) Nontraditional settlement patterns and typhoon hazard on contemporary Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Environ Manag 20(3):337–348. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01203842
Spennemann DH, Marschner IC (1995) The association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation events and typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Disasters 19(3):194–197. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1995.tb00339.x
Storm Damage (2015) Marshall Islands Journal, pp 10–11
Storm slams Ebeye (1988) Marshall Islands Journal, p 1
Surf pounds MIHS (1989) Marshall Islands Journal, p 1
Terry JP, Chui TFM (2012) Evaluating the fate of freshwater lenses on Atoll Islands after eustatic sea-level rise and cyclone-driven inundation: a modelling approach. Global Planet Change 88:76–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.03.008
Tidal flooding in Marshall Islands has caused widespread damage (2014) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-04/marshall-islands-tidal-waves/5298646. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Tony’s house hit by savage storms (2015) Marshall Islands Journal, p 8
Typhoon batters Majuro (1992) Marshall Islands Journal, p 1
Typhoon Pamela headed for Lae (1982) Marshall Islands Journal, p 1
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (2014) OCHA flash update 2: Marshall Islands & Kiribati| King Tides, 7 March 2014. http://reliefweb.int/report/marshall-islands/ocha-flash-update-2-marshall-islands-kiribati-king-tides-7-march-2014. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Vainerere T (2008) Waves flood parts of Majuro atoll in Marshall Islands. http://www.spc.int/ppapd/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=318. Accessed 7 Nov 2016
Vander Velde N (2003) The vascular plants of Majuro atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Atoll Res Bull 503:1–141
Ward B (2009) An unusual low in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. In: The 89th American meteorological society annual meeting, Phoenix, Arizona
Webb AP, Kench PS (2010) The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific. Global Planet Change 72(3):234–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003
Weisler MI (2001) Life on the edge: prehistoric settlement and economy on Utrōk Atoll, northern Marshall Islands. Archaeol Ocean. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1834-4453.2001.tb00486.x
Wells JW (1951) The coral reefs of Arno atoll, Marshall Islands. Atoll Res Bull 9:1–14
Woodroffe CD (2008) Reef-island topography and the vulnerability of atolls to sea-level rise. Global Planet Change 62(1):77–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.11.001
Woodroffe C, Morrison R (2001) Reef-island accretion and soil development on Makin, Kiribati, central Pacific. CATENA 44(4):245–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(01)00135-7
Wright T (2006) Tropical storm Talas-formation and impacts at Kwajalein Atoll. In: 27th conference on hurricanes and tropical meteorology
Yamano H, Kayanne H, Yamaguchi T et al (2007) Atoll Island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Global Planet Change 57(3):407–416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.02.007
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (OCE-0927407) with travel support from the Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research at the University of Hawai’i, Manoa. Wave model hindcasts were obtained from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) http://doi.org/10.4225/08/523168703DCC5. Tide gauge and meteorological data were obtained from the National Tidal Centre, Australia. Additional meteorological data were obtained from the National Weather Service. Pre-1993 tide gauge data were obtained from the University of Hawai’i Sea Level Center. Thank you to Giff Johnson for assistance obtaining historic issues of the Marshall Islands Journal. Thank you to Prof. Dirk Spennemann, Tamara Greenstone Alefaio, Nick Wardrop and Benedict Yamamura for photographs.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ford, M., Merrifield, M.A. & Becker, J.M. Inundation of a low-lying urban atoll island: Majuro, Marshall Islands. Nat Hazards 91, 1273–1297 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3183-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3183-5