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Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA

  • Jianhong E. MuEmail author
  • John M. Antle
  • John T. Abatzoglou
Original Article

Abstract

This paper investigates climate change adaptation through agricultural land uses under three regional representative agricultural pathways, using data from the Pacific Northwest of the United States of America. The three pathways are bottom-up projections of local biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and they are consistent to downscaled regional climate scenarios. Results show that changes in agricultural land uses under future climate change and representative agricultural pathways are substantially different, compared with results not considering representative agricultural pathways. This finding suggests that climate change impacts and adaptation may be underestimated or overestimated if future biophysical and socioeconomic developments are not incorporated, particularly in regional agricultural assessments of climate change adaptation. One implication from this analysis for global adaptation strategies is the need for future infrastructure supports to maintain a climate-resilient agricultural production system due to changes in agricultural land uses.

Keywords

Representative agricultural pathways Climate change adaption Agricultural land uses 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The project described in this publication was supported partly by the Grant/Cooperative Agreement Number G14AC00243 from the United States Geological Survey and partly by USDA-NIFA award no. 2011-68002-30191. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the USGS.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jianhong E. Mu
    • 1
    Email author
  • John M. Antle
    • 2
  • John T. Abatzoglou
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Agricultural EconomicsTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.Department of Applied EconomicsOregon State UniversityCorvallisUSA
  3. 3.Department of GeographyUniversity of IdahoMoscowUSA

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