Landscape Ecology

, Volume 34, Issue 2, pp 403–426 | Cite as

Increases in heat-induced tree mortality could drive reductions of biomass resources in Canada’s managed boreal forest

  • Emeline ChasteEmail author
  • Martin P. Girardin
  • Jed O. Kaplan
  • Yves Bergeron
  • Christelle Hély
Research Article



The Canadian boreal forest provides valuable ecosystem services that are regionally and globally significant. Despite its importance, the future of the Canadian boreal forest is highly uncertain because potential impacts of future climate change on ecosystem processes and biomass stocks are poorly understood.


We investigate how anticipated climatic changes in coming decades could trigger abrupt changes in the biomass of dominant species in Canada’s boreal forests.


Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which was parameterized for the dominant tree genera in Canada’s boreal forests (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) and driven by a large range of climate scenarios grouped by two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), we simulated forest composition, biomass, and the frequency of disturbance, including wildfire, from Manitoba to Newfoundland.


Results suggest that responses of this region to a warmer future climate will be very important, especially in southern boreal areas and under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario. In these areas, reductions of total aboveground biomass incurred by fire and heat-induced tree mortality events are projected; the fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest productivity is unlikely to compensate for these losses. Decreases in total forest stocks would likely be associated with forest cover loss and a shift in composition in particular from needleleaf evergreen (softwood) to broadleaf deciduous (hardwood) taxa.


The simulated future reduction in softwood biomass suggests that forest management strategies will have to be adapted to maintain a sustainable level of forest harvest and tree density that meets demands for wood products, while maintaining other ecosystem services.


Climate change Boreal forest LPJ-LMfire Biomass Heat-induced mortality 



The study was made possible thanks to financial support that was provided by the European NEWFOREST project (PIRSES-GA-2013-612645), the Forest Complexity Modelling (FCM) program, and the NSERC Strategic and Discovery programs. Jed Kaplan was supported by the European Research Council (COEVOLVE 313797). This research was conducted as part of the International Associated Laboratory MONTABOR (LIA France-Canada) and the International Research Group on Cold Forests (CNRS). We thank NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) and CFCAS for the funding of the development of the CRCM5. The authors are particularly grateful to Travis Logan of the Ouranos Consortium for help with computation of climatic models, Daniel Stubbs from Calcul Quebec and Compute Canada for help with the Fortran programming and server space facilities for running LPJ-LMfire, and Xiao Jing Guo for help with mapping and computation for this project. We also thank W.F.J. Parsons for English-language editing of the manuscript, and David Price and the two anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier version.

Supplementary material

10980_2019_780_MOESM1_ESM.docx (6.4 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 6503 kb)


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© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Département des Sciences BiologiquesUniversité du Québec à Montréal and Centre for Forest ResearchMontréalCanada
  2. 2.EPHE, PSL Research University, ISEM, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, CIRAD, INRAP, UMR 5554MontpellierFrance
  3. 3.Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest ServiceLaurentian Forestry CentreQuébecCanada
  4. 4.ARVE Research SARLPullySwitzerland
  5. 5.Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human HistoryJenaGermany
  6. 6.Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
  7. 7.Forest Research InstituteUniversité du Québec en Abitibi-TémiscamingueRouyn-NorandaCanada

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