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Climate change will decrease the range of a keystone fish species in La Plata River Basin, South America

  • Renata RuaroEmail author
  • Eliezer O. Conceição
  • Jislaine C. Silva
  • Emanuel G. Cafofo
  • Mirtha A. Angulo-Valencia
  • Tatiane Mantovano
  • Alfonso Pineda
  • Aline C. M. de Paula
  • Bárbara F. Zanco
  • Eloiza M. Capparros
  • Geovani A. Moresco
  • Isadora J. de Oliveira
  • Janice L. Antiqueira
  • Jéssica Ernandes-Silva
  • João V. F. da Silva
  • José R. P. Adelino
  • Joyce A. dos Santos
  • Maria Julia M. Ganassin
  • Márcia S. Iquematsu
  • Guilherme O. Landgraf
  • Priscila Lemes
  • Fernanda A. S. Cassemiro
  • Valéria F. Batista-Silva
  • José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho
  • Thiago F. Rangel
  • Angelo A. Agostinho
  • Dayani BaillyEmail author
Primary Research Paper
First Online:

Abstract

Climate change threatens freshwater fish by severely modifying water quality and hydrological dynamics, hence altering the species distribution. We assessed the climate change effects on the geographical distribution of Salminus brasiliensis, a keystone species of economic interest in the La Plata River basin. Using ecological niche models, we estimated the species range in the present time and assessed the range shift phenomena through climatically suitable areas in the future. We also quantified the predictive uncertainty from niche models, atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, and carbon emission scenarios. Our predictions indicated a great range contraction of S. brasiliensis in the future. The south-central portion of the basin should retain the climate refuge function for the species at 2050. Nonetheless, the segregation of this climate refuge in two smaller parts was predicted at the end of the century. Our study also revealed that the greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative niche algorithms in modeling process. Our results contribute to more effective measures for conservation of S. brasiliensis, thus helping to ensure the ecosystem processes and socioeconomic activities in the basin dependent on this species.

Keywords

Climate refugia Ecological niche modeling Geographic range Global warming Predictive uncertainty Salminus brasiliensis 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

We thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for a scholarship granted to R. R., E. O. C., J. C. S., E.G. C., M. A. A., T. M., A. P., A. C. M. P., B. F. Z., E. M. C., G. A. M., I. J. O., J. L. A., J. E., J. V. F. S., J. R. P. A., J. A. S., M. J. M. G., M. S. I., and D.B. was supported by CAPES/PNPD post-doctoral fellowship, F. A. S. C. was supported by CNPq/INCt (grant DTI 380.376/2017-2) and A. A. A., J. A. F. D. F. and T. F. R. were supported by CNPq. P. L was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP). We would like to thank Lucas Henrique Xavier for his contribution in the initial discussion of the study.

Supplementary material

10750_2019_3904_MOESM1_ESM.docx (3.5 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 3535 kb)
10750_2019_3904_MOESM2_ESM.docx (1.2 mb)
Supplementary material 2 (DOCX 1259 kb)

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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Renata Ruaro
    • 1
    Email author
  • Eliezer O. Conceição
    • 1
  • Jislaine C. Silva
    • 1
  • Emanuel G. Cafofo
    • 1
  • Mirtha A. Angulo-Valencia
    • 1
  • Tatiane Mantovano
    • 1
  • Alfonso Pineda
    • 1
  • Aline C. M. de Paula
    • 1
  • Bárbara F. Zanco
    • 1
  • Eloiza M. Capparros
    • 1
  • Geovani A. Moresco
    • 1
  • Isadora J. de Oliveira
    • 1
  • Janice L. Antiqueira
    • 1
  • Jéssica Ernandes-Silva
    • 1
  • João V. F. da Silva
    • 1
  • José R. P. Adelino
    • 1
  • Joyce A. dos Santos
    • 1
    • 2
  • Maria Julia M. Ganassin
    • 1
  • Márcia S. Iquematsu
    • 1
  • Guilherme O. Landgraf
    • 1
  • Priscila Lemes
    • 3
  • Fernanda A. S. Cassemiro
    • 4
  • Valéria F. Batista-Silva
    • 5
  • José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho
    • 4
  • Thiago F. Rangel
    • 4
  • Angelo A. Agostinho
    • 1
  • Dayani Bailly
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais. Núcleo de Pesquisas em LimnologiaIctiologia e Aquicultura - Nupelia, Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)MaringáBrazil
  2. 2.Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia – Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas- ICBJuiz De ForaBrazil
  3. 3.Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências de Rio ClaroUniversidade Estadual Júlio Mesquita Filho – UNESPRio ClaroBrazil
  4. 4.Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e EvoluçãoUniversidade Federal de GoiásGoiâniaBrazil
  5. 5.Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul – UEMSMundo NovoBrazil

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