Advertisement

Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems

, Volume 115, Issue 1, pp 117–136 | Cite as

Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change

  • Shuo Liang
  • Xubo ZhangEmail author
  • Nan SunEmail author
  • Yuefen Li
  • Minggang Xu
  • Lianhai Wu
Original Article
  • 139 Downloads

Abstract

In the face of global climate change, changes in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) have not been widely considered to affect agricultural productivity. A modeling study was conducted to assess the impacts of future climates on crop yields and NUE in two wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) rotation systems and one continuous maize system in northern China. Specifically, the process-based SPACSYS model was used to predict crop yields and NUE by 2100, under four climate scenarios (Baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model was validated using data from three long-term experiments, each of which included four fertilization practices typical of the regions: non-fertilizer, combined mineral N, phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) (NPK), NPK plus manure and NPK plus straw. Validation showed SPACSYS well-simulated crop yields and N uptake (R2: 0.41–0.96; RMSE: 6–18%; and EF: 0.41–0.93). Under future climate change, the model predicted changes in maize yield by − 30.69% and 5.98% in northwestern and northeastern China, respectively, and wheat yield by − 16.37% in northwestern China. Future climates would cause greater NUE reductions in the northwest (wheat: 42.79%; maize: 33.73%) than in the northeast (maize: 3.97%) with smaller decreases in crop N uptake and N loss. Furthermore, manure application had higher crop NUEs (wheat: 6.66–31.27%; maize: 23.82–68.19%) and N uptakes than other treatments under future climate change. The results demonstrated the risks of future climate changes on crop yield and NUE in the study regions and can also help target fertilization practices for effectively mitigating climate change.

Keywords

Climate change Yield Nitrogen use efficiency SPACSYS Crop rotation Northeastern and northwestern China 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC0503805), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41701333, 41620104006) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute (Y2017LM06). LW was supported by BBSRSC core funding via Grants BBS/E/C/000I0320 and BBS/E/C/000I0330.

Supplementary material

10705_2019_10013_MOESM1_ESM.docx (689 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 689 kb)
10705_2019_10013_MOESM2_ESM.docx (35 kb)
Supplementary material 2 (DOCX 34 kb)

References

  1. Amthor JS (2001) Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration. Field Crop Res 73:1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anbessa Y, Juskiw P (2012) Review: strategies to increase nitrogen use efficiency of spring barley. Can J Plant Sci 92:617–625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Aslam MA, Ahmed M, Fayyaz-ul-Hassan GQ, Hayat R (2017) Modeling nitrogen use efficiency under changing climate. In: Ahmed M, Stockle CO (eds) Quantification of climate variability, adaptation and mitigation for agricultural sustainability. Springer, Berlin, pp 71–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Asseng S, Jamieson PD, Kimball B, Pinter P, Sayre K, Bowden JW, Howden SM (2004) Simulated wheat growth affected by rising temperature, increased water deficit and elevated atmospheric CO2. Field Crops Res 85:85–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bingham IJ, Wu LH (2011) Simulation of wheat growth using the 3D root architecture model SPACSYS: validation and sensitivity analysis. Eur J Agron 34:181–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat Clim Change 4:287–291CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Gedney N, Halloran P, Hinton T, Hughes J, Jones CD, Joshi M, Liddicoat S, Martin G, O’Connor F, Rae J, Senior C, Sitch S, Totterdell I, Wiltshire A, Woodward S (2011) Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model-HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev 4:1051–1075CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Duan Y, Xu M, Wang B, Yang X, Huang S, Gao S (2011) Long-term evaluation of manure application on maize yield and nitrogen use efficiency in China. Soil Sci Soc Am J 75:1562CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fujimura S, Shi PL, Iwama K, Zhang XZ, Gopal J, Jitsuyama Y (2012) Effects of CO2 increase on wheat growth and yield under different atmospheric pressures and their interaction with temperature. Plant Prod Sci 15:118–124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gao XJ, Shi Y, Zhang DF, Giorgi F (2012) Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model. Sci Bull 57:1188–1195CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Graß R, Thies B, Kersebaum KC, Wachendorf M (2015) Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change. Eur J Agron 70:1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. He TW, Jiang R, He P, Yang JY, Zhou W, Ma JC, Liu YX (2018) Estimating soil nitrogen balance at regional scale in China’s croplands from 1984 to 2014. Agric Syst 167:125–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Jia J, Guo J (2010) Effects of climate changes on maize yield in northeast China. Agric Sci Technol 11:169–174Google Scholar
  14. Jiang GY, Xu MG, He XH, Zhang WJ, Huang SM, Yang XY, Liu H, Peng C, Shirato Y, Iizumi T, Wang JZ, Murphy DV (2014) Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 28:319–333CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jones CD, Hughes JK, Bellouin N, Hardiman SC, Jones GS, Knight J, Liddicoat S, O’Connor FM, Andres RJ, Bell C, Boo KO, Bozzo A, Butchart N, Cadule P, Corbin KD, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Friedlingstein P, Gornall J, Gray L, Halloran PR, Hurtt G, Ingram WJ, Lamarque JF, Law RM, Meinshausen M, Osprey S, Palin EJ, Chini LP, Raddatz T, Sanderson MG, Sellar AA, Schurer A, Valdes P, Wood N, Woodward S, Yoshioka M, Zerroukat M (2011) The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci Model Dev 4:543–570CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jørgene O, Margrethe A, Ilsea R (2009) Winter cereal yields as affected by animal manure and green manure in organic arable farming. Eur J Agron 30:119–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Ju H, Velde MVD, Lin ED, Xiong W, Li YC (2013) The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Clim Change 120:313–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lin ED, Xiong W, Ju H, Xu YL, Li Y, Bai LP, Xie LY (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 360:2149–2154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lin YM, Feng ZM, Wu WX, Yang YZ, Zhou Y, Xu CC (2017) Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation on maize in northeast China. Agron J 109:1476–1490CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Liu X, Ju X, Zhang F, Pan J, Christie P (2003) Nitrogen dynamics and budgets in a winter wheat–maize cropping system in the North China Plain. Field Crops Res 83:111–124CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Liu EK, Yan CR, Mei XR, He WQ, Bing SH, Ding LP, Liu Q, Liu SA, Fan TL (2010a) Long-term effect of chemical fertilizer, straw, and manure on soil chemical and biological properties in northwest China. Geoderma 158:173–180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Liu M, Shen YJ, Zeng Y, Liu CM (2010b) Trend in pan evaporation and its attribution over the past 50 years in China. J Geogr Sci 20:557–568CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lobell DB, Field CB (2008) Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961. Glob Change Biol 14:39–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Ma QA, Yu WT, Shen SM, Zhou H, Jiang ZS, Xu YG (2010) Effects of fertilization on nutrient budget and nitrogen use efficiency of farmland soil under different precipitations in Northeastern China. Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst 88:315–327CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye T, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds), IPCC, Climate Change 2007, the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 747–846Google Scholar
  26. Miller JJ, Beasley BW, Drury CF, Zebarth BJ (2009) Barley yield and nutrient uptake for soil amended with fresh and composted cattle manure. Agron J 101:1047–1059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Qian W, Shan X, Zhu Y (2011) Ranking regional drought events in China for 1960–2009. Adv Atmos Sci 28:310–321CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Qiu SJ, He P, Zhao SC, Li WJ, Xie JG, Hou YP, Grant CA, Zhou W, Jin JY (2015) Impact of nitrogen rate on maize yield and nitrogen use efficiencies in northeast China. Agron J 107:305CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Raza S, Zhou JB, Aziz T, Afzal MR, Ahmed M, Javaid S, Chen ZJ (2018) Piling up reactive nitrogen and declining nitrogen use efficiency in Pakistan: a challenge not challenged (1961–2013). Environ Res Lett 13:034012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho CH, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P (2011) RCP 8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Change 109:33–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Rockström J, Karlberg L, Wani SP, Barron J, Hatibu N, Oweis T, Bruggeman A, Farahani J, Qiang Z (2010) Managing water in rainfed agriculture—the need for a paradigm shift. Agric Water Manag 97:543–550CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Rowan FS, Robert WP (1987) The nitrogen use efficiency of C3 and C4 Plants I. Leaf nitrogen, growth, and biomass partition in Chenopodium album (L.) and Amaranthus retroflexus (L.). Plant Physiol 84:954–958CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Shepherd A, Wu L, Chadwick D, Bol R (2011) Chapter one—a review of quantitative tools for assessing the diffuse pollution response to farmer adaptations and mitigation methods under climate change. Adv Agron 112:1–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Smith P, Smith JU, Powlson DS, McGill WB, Arah JRM, Chertov OG, Coleman K, Franko U, Frolking S, Jenkinson DS, Jensen LS, Kelly RH, Klein Gunnewiek H, Komarov AS, Li C, Molina JAE, Mueller T, Parton WJ, Thornley JHM, Whitmore AP (1997) A comparison of the performance of nine soil organic matter models using datasets from seven long-term experiments. Geoderma 81:153–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Sommerfeldt TG, Chang C, Entz T (1988) Long-term annual manure applications increase soil organic-matter and nitrogen, and decrease carbon to nitrogen ratio. Soil Sci Soc Am J 52:1668–1672CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Swaney DP, Howarth RW, Hong B (2018) Nitrogen use efficiency and crop production: patterns of regional variation in the United States, 1987–2012. Sci Total Environ 635:498–511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Change 109:77–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Thornley JHM (1998) Grassland dynamics—an ecosystem simulation model. CAB International, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  39. van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ, Kram T, van Vliet J, Deetman S, Isaac M, Goldewijk KK, Hof A, Beltran AM, Oostenrijk R, van Ruijven B (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 degrees C. Clim Change 109:95–116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bastidas LA, Bouten W, Sorooshian S (2003) Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 39:1214Google Scholar
  41. Wang M, Li Y, Ye W, Bornman JF, Yan X (2011) Effects of climate change on maize production, and potential adaptation measures: a case study in Jilin Province, China. Clim Res 46:223–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wang Z, Gao J, Ma BL (2014) Concurrent improvement in maize yield and nitrogen use efficiency with integrated agronomic management strategies. Agron J 106:1243CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wang M, Wang LC, Cui ZL, Chen XP, Xie JG, Hou PY (2017) Closing the yield gap and achieving high N use efficiency and low apparent N losses. Field Crops Res 209:39–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wu L, McGechan MB, McRoberts N, Baddeley JA, Watson CA (2007) SPACSYS: integration of a 3D root architecture component to carbon, nitrogen and water cycling-model description. Ecol Model 200:343–359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Wu L, Shepherd A, Ahuja LR, Ma L (2011) Special features of the SPACSYS modeling package and procedures for parameterization and validation. In: Methods of introducing system models into agricultural research, pp 117–154Google Scholar
  46. Xiao G, Liu W, Xu Q, Sun Z, Wang J (2005) Effects of temperature increase and elevated CO2 concentration, with supplemental irrigation, on the yield of rain-fed spring wheat in a semiarid region of China. Agric Water Manag 74:243–255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Xiong W, Matthews R, Holman I, Lin E, Xu YL (2007) Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change. Clim Change 85:433–451CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Xiong W, Yang J, Lin E, Xu Y (2008) The projection of maize yield in China under climate change scenarios. Adv Earth Sci 23:1092–1101 (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  49. Xuan Y, Xu T, Bao-De C, Tian Z, Zhao SJ (2014) Impacts of climate change on wheat yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections. Sci Agric Sin 47:3009–3024 (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  50. Ying JF, Peng SB, Yang GQ, Zhou N, Visperas RM, Cassman KG (1998) Comparison of high-yield rice in tropical and subtropical environments—II. Nitrogen accumulation and utilization efficiency. Field Crops Res 57:85–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zhang Q, Zhang CJ, Bai ZH, Li L, Sun LD, Liu DX, Wang JS, Zhao HY (2010) New development of climate change in northwest China and its impact on arid environment. J Arid Meteorol 28:1–7 (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  52. Zhang X, Gao H, Peng C, Li Q, Zhu P (2012) Effects of combined application of organic manure and chemical fertilizer on maize yield and nitrogen utilization under equal nitrogen rates. J Maize Sci 20:123–127 (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  53. Zhang X, Davidson EA, Mauzerall DL, Searchinger TD, Dumas P, Shen Y (2015) Managing nitrogen for sustainable development. Nature 528:51–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Zhang X, Sun N, Wu L, Xu M, Bingham IJ, Li ZF (2016a) Effects of enhancing soil organic carbon sequestration in the topsoil by fertilization on crop productivity and stability: evidence from long-term experiments with wheat–maize cropping systems in China. Sci Total Environ 562:247–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Zhang X, Xu M, Liu J, Sun N, Wang B, Wu L (2016b) Greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of soil carbon and nitrogen from a 20-year fertilised wheat–maize intercropping system: a model approach. J Environ Manag 167:105–114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Zhang X, Xu M, Sun N, Xiong W, Huang S, Wu L (2016c) Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain. Geoderma 265:176–186CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Zhao BQ, Li XY, Li XP, Shi XJ, Huang SM, Wang BR, Zhu P, Yang XY, Liu H, Chen Y, Poulton P, Powlson D, Todd A, Payne R (2010) Long-term fertilizer experiment network in China: crop yields and soil nutrient trends. Agron J 102:216–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zhao J, Yang X, Liu Z, Lu S, Wang J, Chen F (2014) The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China X—the possible impacts of climate change on climatic suitability of spring maize in the three provinces of Northeast China. Sci Agric Sin 47:3143–3156 (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  59. Zheng C, Guo JP, Zhao JF (2017) Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in northeast China. J Geogr Sci 27:1044–1058CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Zhong WH, Gu T, Wang W, Zhang B, Lin XG, Huang QR, Shen WS (2010) The effects of mineral fertilizer and organic manure on soil microbial community and diversity. Plant Soil 326:511–522CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Zhou WK (2012) Impact of climate change impact on Chinese food production and its countermeasures, Doctor’s degree, Nanjing Agricultural UniversityGoogle Scholar
  62. Zhou MH, Zhu B, Butterbach-Bahl K, Wang T, Bergmann J, Bruggemann N, Wang ZH, Li TK, Kuang FH (2012) Nitrate leaching, direct and indirect nitrous oxide fluxes from sloping cropland in the purple soil area, southwestern China. Environ Pollut 162:361–368CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/National Engineering Laboratory for Improving Quality of Arable LandBeijingChina
  3. 3.College of Earth SciencesJilin UniversityChangchunChina
  4. 4.Sustainable Agriculture SystemsRothamsted ResearchNorth Wyke, OkehamptonUK

Personalised recommendations