, Volume 45, Issue 3, pp 587–605 | Cite as

Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach

  • Alessandra Bettocchi
  • Elena GiardaEmail author
  • Cristiana Moriconi
  • Federica Orsini
  • Rita Romeo
Original Paper


In this study we develop a micro-founded model to analyse the economic-financial conditions of Italian households. Using household level data, we build an indicator to identify vulnerable households based on their budget constraint and the composition of their financial portfolio. Then, we calculate the impact of the predicted trends of macroeconomic variables on the indicator in order to monitor its evolution in the short term (2015–2017). The empirical analysis is based on the Survey of Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy and on a set of macroeconomic forecasts. Our findings suggest that the macroeconomic scenario for the period 2015–2017 implies a progressive reduction in the percentage of vulnerable households for the full extent of the projection.


Households’ financial vulnerability Micro-founded models Financial margin Macroeconomic forecasts 

JEL Classification

D10 D14 G10 



The authors would like to thank Marianna Brunetti, Elizabeth Jane Casabianca, Lea Zicchino and Prometeia seminar participants for useful comments. Two anonymous referees are also kindly acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the affiliated institution/s.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.PrometeiaBolognaItaly
  2. 2.Cefin, University of Modena and Reggio EmiliaModenaItaly

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