Land use dynamics and future scenarios of the Rio Doce State Park buffer zone, Minas Gerais, Brazil

  • Brayan Ricardo De OliveiraEmail author
  • Elaine Lopes Da Costa
  • Sónia Maria Carvalho-Ribeiro
  • Paulina Maria Maia-Barbosa


It is necessary to understand the importance of landscapes that comprise the environment across a broad range of time and space and that each part of these landscapes responds to changes in environmental factors and land use. This study employs a multiscale modeling approach in the Rio Doce State Park (PERD), located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, based on a previous study on land use change in this region over the last 30 years (1985–2015), with an aim of predicting possible scenarios for the next 15 years (2015–2030). The results indicate that the municipalities and buffer zones within the PERD will suffer from increased human disturbance in all four land use types present in the region (Urban, Agriculture, Pasture, and Forestry). Correspondingly, areas of natural environment (Forest and Water) will shrink due to an increase in forest fragmentation, causing the loss of permanent ecological reserves, thereby endangering the biodiversity of these areas. Cooperation between the local community and private companies is therefore necessary to improve regional environmental conservation, encourage advanced sustainable development, and improve the quality of life for residents within each municipality near the State Park.


Landscape ecology Environmental management Future scenarios Rio Doce State Park 



This study was supported by a Capes DS scholarship acquired by the student along with a doctorate in ecology (ECMVS-UFMG) in progress and in preparation with the structure of the Laboratory of Plankton Ecology (ICB–Institute of Biological Sciences) and Cartography laboratories (IGC–Institute of Geosciences), being part of the program The Long-Term Research Program-LTRP. Special thanks to the LTPR for the logistical, financial and scientific support and to the Rio Doce State Park (PERD) for the partnership throughout the project.

Funding information

The authors declare that this study had no provision of funds.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

10661_2019_8016_MOESM1_ESM.docx (970 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 969 kb)


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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Biological Sciences (ICB), Department of General Biology, I3-253Federal University of Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazil
  2. 2.Institute of Geosciences (IGC), Departament of CartographyFederal University of Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazil

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